The 2022 Longshot Thread

I actually think Kirby thought he'd won it. Not blaming him or anything but he could have given the filly another tap.

Just saw the head-on. I think if he hadn't straightened her she'd have won. He might have been disqualified but I'd have got FPTP :lol:

Still, much more satisfying and rewarding than a 5***** short-price loser...
 
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4.45 - Full Prime 33/1 w/o the fav - entitled to be in the mix for the places. Also 45/1 ew to 4 places and 30/1 5 places, to smaller stakes.
 
Outsider said:
Golden mile Friday

ORBAAN 33/1 really didnt expect him to get in but he has.took 50s a/p
Hasnt really been showing any form until recently with 2 2nds over 7f and then running well in the international from a bad draw.
Was a bit unlucky in it last year with Jamie on board and is now 13lb lower.
Whether or not it is good enough is open to question but is certainly well hcapped.
SDS rides and is drawn 1 but that could cause a problem as it's usually held up.
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Might just be on the wrong O Meara horse there mate or perhaps you're right and I'l be on the wrong one.

Rhoscolyn 25/1 Bit of a boring or rather straight forward bit of thinking but an unlucky loser in this last year off a mark of 104 lines up off 103 and has Harry Davies taking 5lb off. He's mostly been running over 7f all season and bar one shocker at Newmarket has run fairly consistently. 1 run over a mile this term in a grp 2 and didn't get beat that far had to do the donkey work as the front runner in that which isn't his usual style. Only neg really is a bit of a shitty draw but at 25/1 you never get everything your own way.

Best of luck.
 
Danny said:
Might just be on the wrong O Meara horse there mate or perhaps you're right and I'l be on the wrong one.

Rhoscolyn 25/1 Bit of a boring or rather straight forward bit of thinking but an unlucky loser in this last year off a mark of 104 lines up off 103 and has Harry Davies taking 5lb off. He's mostly been running over 7f all season and bar one shocker at Newmarket has run fairly consistently. 1 run over a mile this term in a grp 2 and didn't get beat that far had to do the donkey work as the front runner in that which isn't his usual style. Only neg really is a bit of a shitty draw but at 25/1 you never get everything your own way.

Best of luck.
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Actually having read your reasoning and looked at it I think you're probably on the right lines I'm gonna back both and that'll do me cheers Outsider.
 
Danny said:
Actually having read your reasoning and looked at it I think you're probably on the right lines I'm gonna back both and that'll do me cheers Outsider.
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I've done 4 of Omearas
Orbaan 50/1
Young fire 33/1
Blue for you 25s
Rhoscolyn 25/1

And even earlier I did Ouzo 33/1

So I've got some decent prices just hope one of them wins.

Good luck mate.
 
Yes. From the email stuff I put out earlier:

O’Meara is mob-handed and I suspect Tudhope has allowed the draw to dictate his option for Blue For You (14/1) who has strong place prospects and will carry a saver. I don’t really want to back anything with a double-digit draw but I have total respect for Sinjaari (10/1). The other bet will be Young Fire (25/1), also for O’Meara.
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Goodwood 1.50 - Blue Trail 25/1, 5 places, BOG - I mentioned on the main Goodwood thread that I had the three Godolphins in the top two ratings. Blue Trail is actually top. The fact that Buick and Doyle ride the other two is all the more reason to fancy them but 25s to 5 places is far too big for this one. He's 9lbs better off with Wanees (7/1 here) for 2¼ lengths at Sandown the time before last and is arguably more likely to be suited by today's trip. He's been gelded since running a wee bit below par at Ascot. This might be a prep for something later in the summer but I'm also curious that they've called up Dettori for the ride.

I'll probably also chuck some loose change at the Godolphins in a tricast.

Edit - clipped to 22s while I was typing that up. Still 25s in a couple of lists but only to 4 places.
 
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Looks like there might be lots of potential value bets in the Stewards' Cup.

They haven't done the draw yet but if you order the field by RPR then, of the top 15 ratings, ie over half the field and only 2lbs between them, ten are priced between 20/1 and 50/1.

It's almost scary :lol:
 
They've still not revealed the draw but I've decided to get a couple onside early:

Batwan and Coachello, both 40/1

Batwan has been on my radar for a wee while but I didn't think it had a snowball's of getting in. It's a French raider with Hayley Turner booked. Not much went right for it in the Wokingham but it has since run a good second to Garrus in a G3 at Deauville so I'm interested that they're having another bash over here.

I'd never heard of Coachello until this morning. I'd never even noticed it among the entries. But it's declared for this, its seasonal debut, by Irish wido John C McConnell. The chances are if it's fancied there will be a plunge. If not my dough is probably donald ducked.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood 1.50 - Blue Trail 25/1, 5 places, BOG - I mentioned on the main Goodwood thread that I had the three Godolphins in the top two ratings. Blue Trail is actually top. The fact that Buick and Doyle ride the other two is all the more reason to fancy them but 25s to 5 places is far too big for this one. He's 9lbs better off with Wanees (7/1 here) for 2¼ lengths at Sandown the time before last and is arguably more likely to be suited by today's trip. He's been gelded since running a wee bit below par at Ascot. This might be a prep for something later in the summer but I'm also curious that they've called up Dettori for the ride.

I'll probably also chuck some loose change at the Godolphins in a tricast.

Edit - clipped to 22s while I was typing that up. Still 25s in a couple of lists but only to 4 places.
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Close second to the main bet. I'll take it. :)
 
TABDEEL stewards cup 33/1 well drawn.
Lost any chance at the start when 11/1 for the wokingham and then was favourite for a 5f hcap at Ascot in the race where whenthedealingsdone caught my eye.this 6f woll be better.skybet going 8 places.
 
:thumbsup::thumbsup:

Excellent, wilsonl.

I vowed last year never to look at Galway again but thought about following you in. Got caught up in studying for Saturday and completely forgot. Well done and another lovely winner for the thread.
 
Desert Orchid said:
[emoji106][emoji106]

Excellent, wilsonl.

I vowed last year never to look at Galway again but thought about following you in. Got caught up in studying for Saturday and completely forgot. Well done and another lovely winner for the thread.
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The Galway thread this year i would guess is probably one of the most lucrative ever on here. Started in style with Echoes and Rain and has gone from strength to strength.
 
That would be typical of my luck, BoS, but I'm not one to blindly follow others' selections and there's too much sh1t happening around me outside racing that I need to narrow my focus for the time being.

Anyhow, another one I've backed on Saturday:

Barstewards' Cup - Typhoon Ten 66/1, 6 places, BOG - Hannon doesn't seem to target this race the way his father did but I'm curious about this one turning up here for its seasonal debut. I don't imagine he really expected to make the cut and maybe had the consolation race in mind for it but it gets in near the bottom. It was an improver through last summer and fairly hacked up at Lingfield (downhill) in August over 7f, clear a furlong out. Its next run was probably too soon (seven days) and its final run was in the Ayr Silver Cup when it got upset in the stalls, missed the break and the saddle slipped. I just wonder why they've held it back until now but it has four entries over the next few days so they clearly want it to run somewhere and maybe they've just fallen lucky getting into this. Maybe they feel they need to get it up the handicap for the Ayr Gold Cup? At the price I don't mind paying to find out.
 
Sometimes I will throw in a silly long shot just to “tidy up” my account. (I like to put it to bed with a round number which sounds a bit anal :lol:)
So today my last bet was £1.20 ew on a Karl Burke horse called Run Simba. I rate Karl and I liked the name. It was 28-1 when I backed it but Betfair (bless em!) pushed it out to 66-1 :<3: It was fourth so they paid out...yay! Actually I didn’t see the race but it gets the comment “eyecatcher” so clearly I shall follow its career closely now.....:D
 
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