The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
That would be typical of my luck, BoS, but I'm not one to blindly follow others' selections and there's too much sh1t happening around me outside racing that I need to narrow my focus for the time being.
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Ah yeah get that, there is only one poster here that I follow blindly and it's definitely not something I would advocate in general. I think most of the selections in the Galway thread were accompanied by a reasoned analysis etc. but at the end of the day its an individual decision, I find selections posted here as a great starting point and a way in to a race and work backwards from there.
 
I was reading the racing news and watched the charity race at goodwood today and DARK SHOT broke well and led all the way and I see it runs in the stewards cup consolation race and is getting lumps of weight so I cant resist 33/1 5 places skybet.

Scott Dixon ew double
Dark shot 33s
Zargun 50/1
 
Gwd 4.10 - Desert Encounter 20/1 ew without Rebel's Romance - I thought there was a glimmer of promise that the old ability might still be there on his reappearance. I'd rather take this bet than 40s to three places in the main market cos I just can't see him actually winning the race but he could be second on his best form.
 
I quite often throw some pennies on the rank outsider in some races, unless it’s obviously a complete no hoper. But I’ve only just noticed that you can get an extra place at reduced odds on W Hill, something worth doing if it’s a massive price and might sneak into 4th or 5th.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well done, Outsider, with Orbaan. You called it ages ago!
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Thanks D.
Cant be more happy.
Myself and yorick have said all along this was the race and Omeara got it so well hcapped it was lucky to get in.
Had the winner at 55/1
2nd at 25/1
4th at 33/1
So a good watch for me.
And I think Rhoscolyn was 5th.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well done, Outsider, with Orbaan. You called it ages ago!
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Thanks D.
Cant be more happy.
Myself and yorick have said all along this was the race and Omeara got it so well hcapped it was lucky to get in.
Had the winner at 55/1
2nd at 25/1
4th at 33/1
So a good watch for me.
And I think Rhoscolyn was 5th.
 
Stewards cup

ABOVE 50/1 BETFAIR 7 places

5lb better off with invert park and was 2nd to Blackrod with a few of these behind and hes better off with them all except Summerghand.
 
Stewards cup

ABOVE 50/1 BETFAIR 7 places

5lb better off with invert park and was 2nd to Blackrod with a few of these behind and hes better off with them all except Summerghand.
 
Well done Outsider, great tipping. Orbaan was a great pick.

I think 25/1 is a really generous price on Makanah in the stewards cup. As a seven year old he's a healthy win strike rate of about 20 percent.

For most of his career he has been campaigned at five furlongs but when he was tryed again at six furlongs over at York earlier this season he ran a blinder when just touched off by a very good horse on his day in Dakota Gold.

Dakota Gold was rated as high as 111 at the start of last year so perhaps he ran near to that again at York or at least the form can be upgraded in which case Makanah ran a screamer off near enough level weights.

It seems to me Makanah is in as good as form now as he's ever been. He's not been out the first four all season. There's a chance something elsewhere is better handicapped but 25/1 Makanah back at six furlongs on good to firm ground seems a great each way price.

Good luck to those who got good prices on Whenthedealinsdone.
 
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I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
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Cant argue with that.
 
Outsider said:
TABDEEL stewards cup 33/1 well drawn.
Lost any chance at the start when 11/1 for the wokingham and then was favourite for a 5f hcap at Ascot in the race where whenthedealingsdone caught my eye.this 6f woll be better.skybet going 8 places.
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Has pricewise or Kealy put this up.now as low as 11/1 and best price 22s.

It wont win though,as I've got it in a ew dble with Orbaan.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Batwan and Coachello, both 40/1

Batwan has been on my radar for a wee while but I didn't think it had a snowball's of getting in. It's a French raider with Hayley Turner booked. Not much went right for it in the Wokingham but it has since run a good second to Garrus in a G3 at Deauville so I'm interested that they're having another bash over here.

I'd never heard of Coachello until this morning. I'd never even noticed it among the entries. But it's declared for this, its seasonal debut, by Irish wido John C McConnell. The chances are if it's fancied there will be a plunge. If not my dough is probably donald ducked.
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Money for Batwan, into 20s top and as low as 14s in a place.

Coachello cut in a couple of places but still time...

Always nice to get these movers onside early but it guarantees nothing, as Noble Dynasty proves :rolleyes:
 
All of the horses I’ve backed have high draws so I thought I’d back Gulliver at 50/1 to balance things out. Able Kane is my top pick ( I follow the Millman horses anyway) and I back most horses that Saffie rides. Can’t ignore Summerghand either. Really enjoying this weeks racing!
 
All of the horses I’ve backed have high draws so I thought I’d back Gulliver at 50/1 to balance things out. Able Kane is my top pick ( I follow the Millman horses anyway) and I back most horses that Saffie rides. Can’t ignore Summerghand either. Really enjoying this weeks racing!
 
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