The 2022 Longshot Thread

chaumi said:
Ah, I can't find it, Desert. But you were uprating the performances of the principals in this race....

https://www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2022-05-21/810141

So take a note of the 5th home.

Sad sidenote: in light of today's performance, it's now even more painful how he got done by a nose at Donny on the 3rd June in a Class 5 when I had half the mortgage on at double figure odds. Sigh and groan. :-(
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Yes, I got a tracker alert through for Exminster but it wasn't my kind of race so I let it go.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I got a tracker alert through for Exminster but it wasn't my kind of race so I let it go.
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Shame, because it might have highlighted PL. Still mildly kicking myself that I didn't look deeply enough to spot the connections.

But - ever optimistic - perhaps it'll all disappear when Max Vega takes the Ebor (seriously, don't think there's going to be enough cut. Maybe they've watered after losing Trueshan).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Ebor - Quenelle D'Or 66/1, 8 places - a poor run last time requires forgiving but it might have been too soon after Ascot when she was only three lengths behind Get Shirty (16/1 for this) and is 10lbs better off. Hugo Palmer is a good target trainer and I'm curious that he held this one back for a seasonal debut at royal Ascot and now turns up here for just her third run of the season. She got her black type last season at Saint-Cloud in a Listed race and maybe that allowed them to lay her out for this. She was fast improving at the end of last season and every reason to believe she can be even better this time round.
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Quenelle D'Or is a non-runner, presumably due to the ground, so I've switched to Fancy Man at 50/1 to 7 places, BOG. I really don't fancy it all mainly because I can't see it staying the trip but it's top of my ratings table and my neighbour's lovely, friendly wee cat wouldn't deserve the kicking it might get if the horse went and won and I wasn't on it.
 
This is the kind of thing I find myself doing a lot in these big handicaps, checking the betting against my ratings. I've now stuck a small win bet on Rodrigo Diaz at 60 on the exchange. It's not far off the top of my table with a 'p' and I must have had a suspicion that it's better than the form for me to have added a '+?'. I'm not a fan of Spencer. For long enough I've suspected he plays the percentage game in these big handicaps, holding them up in anticipation of a pace collapse, which doesn't always happen, but when it does he looks brilliant. I'm also not a fan of hold-up horses at York, a concern for Euchen Glen, but I do like Simcock as a trainer and if he has the right horse he can get it to win. But it's really just a case of the odds not matching the horse's place in my ratings table. Nothing to do with fancying the horse, same as with Fancy Man.
 
I havent seen the head on but I didnt think master richard did a lot wrong and the other horse looked to be hanging left and even watching it twice it still looked as if MR won.
Unlucky Marb.
 
Outsider said:
I havent seen the head on but I didnt think master richard did a lot wrong and the other horse looked to be hanging left and even watching it twice it still looked as if MR won.
Unlucky Marb.
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Yes glad someone agrees re- interference. I thought Nick Luck went way over the top on that front.

I am pretty sure Master Richard was ahead both before and after the line, just not on the actual line.

Maybe a horse for another day aswell. He was stepping up from class four to class two there.
 
Newcastle 6.45

Bringonboris has been a frustrating horse to follow on turf as he is only 1/23 on grass.

On the all weather his record stacks up a lot better with a win strike rate of 4/14.

Arguably then the fact he is only 8lb higher in the ratings, with an all weather mark of 74, (just 8lbs higher than his turf mark), makes that mark of 74 look lenient and exploitable.

I am putting a line through his turf runs and will chance this fella tomorrow back at Newcastle where he has won several times before. 20/1 looks too big a price.

I see forum favourite Gigilo has selected one in this same race and the forum heavyweights will rightly be following him in with their hard earned.

My fella Bringitonboris looks one for the £1 or £2 each way mob lol.
 
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Faylaq goes in the Silver Bell. 40-1 best at 365, 33 most of the rest.

That last run over much shorter (to my thinking, wayyy too short) was actually not that bad given the tardy start, too (that may have been intentional). And, given the appearance in this race now, it may well have been a tee-up.

Having said that, the opposition is such that any high degree of confidence is probably going to be unwise. Personally, I could only rule a few out with any confidence at all.

But 40s is entirely reasonable, could even drift further. Last chance, today's conditions look perfect to me and every step to this point makes sense.
 
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Cheers, chaumi, my tracker for it must have expired.

Given the value of the race (£100k) I'm assuming this has been the plan since it ran promisingly here in the spring so I've gone in as heavily as I would on a 5/1 shot.

Good to know I can rely on you to 'chaumi' the way... :rolleyes:





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I had [thought I had] taken the 40s to four places and went back in to check the extra places, just in case. As luck would have it, I'd backed Sir Chauvelin by mistake :blink:

Anyway, I managed to cash that out for no loss and reinvested the money (and a wee bit more) on Faylaq, only this time I divided up the stake and invested it at the prices to 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 places at odds from 55/1 down to 17/1.

Of course, I now have to stick enough sickness insurance on Sir Chauvelin to cover them! :lol:
 
Faylaq maybe a wee bit unlucky not to finish closer than fourth. Spent a couple of furlongs waiting for the gap and the winner got first run on them all. His run kind of petered out in the last fifty yards so hard to claim he'd have won but maybe a stronger pace will suit him.

We talked about Goldie being a target trainer before the Ebor. First and second here with Sir Chauvelin finishing fastest of all into second.

So place returns for top 4/5/6/7/8 finishes plus a nice place return on Sir C so a decent enough profit on the race.

Thanks again for the alert, chaumi.
 
Yeah, good choices in going down the places. For a bit, it looked like it might just come off spectacularly. We had a run at least, and no harm done to the bank. SC was way too big, that didn't make sense, and I had a last minute cover too. All in all, there have been worse evenings :)
 
chaumi said:
Been keeping an eye on Shelir for the Clipper Logistics, who my instinct (haha, where did that ever get you, let's say a semi-semi-educated guess instead) says might be O'Meara's plot horse. Interestingly DT is down to ride Shelir and Blue For You, so something is possibly afoot. Just don't know what it is at this point. And (I think) Shelir may have played a semi-visible/cloaked part in Orbaan's Goodwood romp.

Best currently 40 with Skybet, 33 everyone else.

I guess there's more of a risk he won't run, given that double jockey booking, but maybe there's a legit reason for that. And you wouldn't have to do too much detective work to identify some evidence that this was/is a season target for Shelir.
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Did you back it today chaumi
 
Marb said:
Yes glad someone agrees re- interference. I thought Nick Luck went way over the top on that front.

I am pretty sure Master Richard was ahead both before and after the line, just not on the actual line.

Maybe a horse for another day aswell. He was stepping up from class four to class two there.
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Interesting story about Ann Duffield appealing this result at York

https://www.racingpost.com/news/we-...-looking-to-get-york-result-overturned/576058

Even if she gets it overturned I won't get the winnings for it as I handed in my yankee the next day.
 
Going back down the football route with this one and it is one I can't see winning but I just think the odds are wrong.

Scottish League Cup this evening, Rangers v QOS

I keep saying, I think football matches are as much about psychology as ability. Good coaching and training obviously help but part of that is about getting into players' heads and getting the most of what little is in there out.

Rangers clearly have an eye on Saturday and are fielding very much a Second XI. That could be a very dangerous ploy. It probably won't backfire but it could. It certainly would not be the first time if it did. I do think, though, that it might make less likely the kind of margin that the odds are suggesting. Rangers are 1/25 to win and as short as 1/40. At the same time most bookies are only going around 16/1 or so about Queens getting a draw. I managed to get 33/1 the draw and 100/1 the away win, dutching at around 24/1.

I'll hopefully manage to watch the game. I was half-expecting GVB would field a near-full-strength team to keep them ticking along together but the side is full of names I don't recognise. At least this will give us the chance to see what strength in depth they have for the league season. Celtic have two good players for each position but if they fielded a Second XI against a lower league side I'd be taking them on in the betting as well. I very much doubt this Rangers 2nd XI would trouble Celtic's.

So here's hoping for a wee shock by the Doonhamers. I have an ex-colleague who'll be yelling them on from the stands and I hope he enjoys his evening.

We'll soon find out...
 
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Half-time 2-1

For all Rangers are dominating the game their best chances have been down to amateurish defending but that has been redressed to a degree by Queens' equaliser being the result of a poor defensive mistake by Rangers. But I'm satisfied in my own mind that the odds were wrong to start with. Queens have spurned two chances to level the game late in the half so who knows what might happen next.

I think it's fair to say at this point that QOS are outrunning their odds and that's really all I backed them to do.
 
70 mins, still 2-1

I've stuck another wee bet on the draw at 55/1. Queens look dangerous on the break and you just never know.
 
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