The 2022 Longshot Thread

85 mins, 3-1. That should finish it but hardly impressive from the hosts. I wouldn't say I feel as though I've thrown my money away.
 
Outsider said:
Yes you have.
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We agree on a lot, Outsider, but I can't agree on this.

I lost, yes, and I expected to, yes, but at no time did the home side look like 1/40 shots and at no time did the visitors look like 100/1 shots. The home side will have easier games when they're only 1/8.

The odds appeared to me to be based on their fielding a full-strength side, which they didn't. At 2-1, Queens had a couple of breaks up the park and had three-on-two but couldn't capitalise and one attack resulted in a Rangers defender almost sclaffing the ball into his own net. It was really only four minutes from time that the game ended as a contest despite all the stats confirming Rangers' dominance.

Even Ally McCoist said just before the third goal something along the lines of, "Still, at 2-1, you can't say this game is over."

I'd liken it to a 100/1 rank outsider finishing just behind the placed horses but well ahead of much lower-priced opponents. It has outrun its odds and, for me, that was what I was betting: Queens to perform better than the odds suggested, and they did.
 
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I have had a token bet on Sixcor in the 4.30 at Windsor and at 20/1 I guess he qualifies for this thread.

A much improved season this year where he has been for the most part in good form and won three races aswell. Only 1lb or 2lb wrong at the weights, but I am not worried about that unless he is beaten a nose! I reckon he can get in the shake up today with hardly any weight on his back.

I reckon he can out run these odds I'd be happy if he finishes in the first four.
 
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Tomorrow, St Leger - Emily Dickinson 20/1 - I'm not sure this is a strong renewal. Was Hoo Ya Mal flattered in the Derby? His level last time was nowhere near as good even if he did win easily. I presume Godolphin are happy that their sole rep New London will stay and his dosage figures back that up; he looks likely to improve for the extra distance and, for me, is the most likely winner but I'm sure I read an item on the sections of ED's Goodwood race which suggested that Urban Artist wasn't actually going over-fast in front so ED is maybe entitled to a significant mark-up and we know she stays. Her dam won the Champion Stakes in heavy ground so I'm not worried about the going. A notional 7lbs mark-up for Goodwood - I presume Timeform will have quantified it - would give her a similar chance to the top three in the market. I might look again in the morning to see what the odds to four places are with a view to going in again.

Also, Doncaster 4.30 - Power Of Beauty 40/1, 5 places - joint-top on my ratings table so shouldn't be anywhere near that price and Harry Davies replaces Rossa Ryan to take 3lbs off.

I feel a wee each-way double coming on...
 
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Leopardstown 5.30 - Khezaana 50/1, 6 places - not at her best in three runs so far this season but her career best was here last October off 83 and is off 81 today. Probably should be no more than 16-20/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown 5.30 - Khezaana 50/1, 6 places - not at her best in three runs so far this season but her career best was here last October off 83 and is off 81 today. Probably should be no more than 16-20/1.
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Awful ride and might have been placed if she hadn't lost a lot of ground racing very wide round the home turn.
 
In the big race at Ayr....

I'm going to take a flyer that SC and Faylaq have had a few hardish races in fairly close proximity and may not be at their best, plus still believe 2f further would be Faylaq's ideal (although that would positively shine a light on how well he's done in two of the last three - the November Handicap is still the dream, with a break after today)

Cockalorum, just can't see him being able to win in this field/class from a prominent position.

Though any of the three could clearly do it.

Which leaves Fishable at 33-1. Enough back form to suggest he can go well. Easterby has always rated him, fair chance this has been a late-season target for a while. Perhaps a little more give would be ideal, but won on good before. Oh, and David Allan is back on.
 
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chaumi said:
In the big race at Ayr....

I'm going to take a flyer that SC and Faylaq have had a few hardish races in fairly close proximity and may not be at their best, plus still believe 2f further would be Faylaq's ideal (although that would positively shine a light on how well he's done in two of the last three - the November Handicap is still the dream, with a break after today)

Cockalorum, just can't see him being able to win in this field/class from a prominent position.

Though any of the three could clearly do it.

Which leaves Fishable at 33-1. Enough back form to suggest he can go well. Easterby has always rated him, fair chance this has been a late-season target for a while. Perhaps a little more give would be ideal, but won on good before. Oh, and David Allan is back on.
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Good place mate,I followed but 29/1 extra place lol. And its stablemate won it.
FAYLAQ november handicap?
 
Yes, good place for Fishable at a big price. Nice one, chaumi.

I've only just got round to watching it. It looked chock-full of triers and the pace looked strong. Might be decent enough form for the grade.

Cockalorum (halved in price) probably went too fast up front and Faylaq didn't run at all badly. No complaints.
 
Oh hell. I always back Raising Sand. But tonight I didn’t look at the race he’s just won. I could cry.
 
I would have preferred to wait until the morning to post these because I think they might drift but I'm out early and will probably miss the racing.

Newbury 3.25 - Palavecino 50/1, 4 places, BOG - won first time up this calendar year off 101 but has done next to nothing since. His second run, though, was in the Coronation Cup, his next in the Wolferton and then he didn’t run too badly at Goodwood before disappointing at Sandown. I think he’s better than this mark; he was rated 109 last summer (95 here).

Ayr 3.40 - Tinto 25/1, Pendleton 33/1 and Volatile Analyst (50 taken) - see Ayr Gold Cup thread.

And three ew doubles with Palavecino... why not. The lowest paying one is 1274/1. That might just be a record for the thread if it came off :lol:
 
I will be taking you on D .
PISTOLETTO 325nb 25/1 is very tasty
CHIEFOFCHIEFS 340a 20/1
DEVILS ANGEL 230 20/1

LOOKS GOOD ON PAPER.

GOOD LUCK
 
ZARGUN 230A 50/1 was a good 2nd earlier in the season and hasnt shown much until last sunday where he weakened final furlong over 7.c9uld make all under the stand side rail.
 
Silver Cup - haven't studied the race but had Rathbone not too far off the top last time in a classier race so 70/1, 6 places, looks extremely generous.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.25 - Palavecino 50/1, 4 places, BOG - won first time up this calendar year off 101 but has done next to nothing since. His second run, though, was in the Coronation Cup, his next in the Wolferton and then he didn’t run too badly at Goodwood before disappointing at Sandown. I think he’s better than this mark; he was rated 109 last summer (95 here).
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What kind of rush of blood did Greatrex have there? Five out in my head I'm screaming at the screen, "WTF are you doing?"

Then I remembered, the one way to run one down the park and not attract the attention of the stewards is to go too fast out in front.

It will be interesting to see what kind of mark-up Palavecino gets for this. I reckon there's definitely a decent race in him.
 
Cambridgeshire - Bell Rock, 25/1, 5 places - my first serious bet in the race. Rated 109 last August and off 97 here. Close to Mujtaba (hot fav here) and Legend Of Dubai (16/1) and I'm hopeful he was just weighing them up that day :) If they put Davies up to claim off him, so much the better.
 
Cambridgeshire - Fast Medicine 80/1, 4 places - I'm always keen to keep PCH's horses in the bigger hcaps onside and I can't help thinking this one has been put away since his winning reappearance in which he hacked up. He was actually arguably a bit unlucky last time when he might have been trying to pick up a penalty but he only needs one to come out although will be a pound wrong if he gets in. I reckon his price is far too long.

I should add that I'm trying to get some bets on in case I can't get any on in Spain this weekend so my hand is forced a wee bit and I'm missing out on the extra places and BOGs but I wouldn't be backing one like this if I didn't respect its chances.
 
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