The 2022 Longshot Thread

In the Charlie Hall, I've taken both outsiders, Sam Brown (22/1) and Paint The Dream (30/1). I would favour Ahoy Senor over BMG but yesterday I backed Secret Investor before he was taken out because on his best old form he had the rating to beat 'the big two'. Being second-season chasers, AH and BMG really should improve away from the field but you never know first time up. In any event there are no more than 7lbs between the entire field on the ratings so maybe the outsiders are too long. It's a jumps race and anything can happen. I'm also going to bet the exacta just in case the unthinkable happens.
 
Asc 2.05 - Tanganyika 20/1, 4 pl - because of its rating for winning on its debut in France. There’s no guarantee the rating can be used side by side with UK ratings but quite often these imports do get in lightly over here and a disappointing debut for the stable in the Victor Ludorum over eight months ago has seen it possibly get in lightly on its handicap debut.

I've also taken a double Nassalam & Major Dundee with Sky Bet. They're paying an extra place in both races to slightly reduced odds of 38/1.
 
Asc 3.15 - Rapper 40/1, 5 places BOG (Hills) - this was only 22/1 yesterday when it came on my radar as one of my 'long list' for the race but the price didn't tempt me too much. It's now 50s in a few places but I've opted for a cut for the sake of the extra place. It's some way off the top of my ratings but it's effectively a second-season novice and I've always liked the trainer. He's patient, looks after his horses and can land one if he's so minded. The horse was progressing very nicely last season until disappointing in the Ultima and subsequently left off the track so I presume an issue came to light or maybe it just had one race too many in a relatively short time. I do think 20/1 is more his price and he might well have been shorter had he arrived here with form figures of P211 had they skipped Cheltenham. At the longer odds, I'm happy to pay to find out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 2.05 - Tanganyika 20/1, 4 pl - because of its rating for winning on its debut in France. There’s no guarantee the rating can be used side by side with UK ratings but quite often these imports do get in lightly over here and a disappointing debut for the stable in the Victor Ludorum over eight months ago has seen it possibly get in lightly on its handicap debut.
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Ridden in rear giving up the outer to no one. Never asked for an effort and clearly just there for the run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Charlie Hall, I've taken both outsiders, Sam Brown (22/1) and Paint The Dream (30/1). I would favour Ahoy Senor over BMG but yesterday I backed Secret Investor before he was taken out because on his best old form he had the rating to beat 'the big two'. Being second-season chasers, AH and BMG really should improve away from the field but you never know first time up. In any event there are no more than 7lbs between the entire field on the ratings so maybe the outsiders are too long. It's a jumps race and anything can happen. I'm also going to bet the exacta just in case the unthinkable happens.
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Got me a wee bit nearer the edge of my seat for a fence or two there...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 3.15 - Rapper 40/1, 5 places BOG (Hills) -
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Just got home and watched. I wouldn't give up on Rapper. I'd taken 20 earlier in the week figuring it was fair enough, didn't see too much else running that he couldn't at least run close. Fortunately kept stakes low enough.

Because it was little more than 3-4 weeks ago, Daly was saying he had been 'terrified' to train anything on the prevalent ground on the gallops. The fact that Jimmy The Digger won FTO and a few of the younger hurdlers have run OK may be a little 'misleading'.

Rapper has the look of a typical Daly 3m chaser that will win a couple through the season, with a fair chance that at least one of those will be a fairly valuable race. It took Fortescue one or two goes to reach a peak.

Provided we can get attractive enough odds either next time or the one after, it may pay to just ignore this race or classify as a readier.
 
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It's the time of year when you cant be certain if a horse is trying or just running to get a reduction in the ratings.

GEORGE RIDSDALE 230R 33/1 could be running to get a further drop for an a/w campaign.
Hes back to his last winning mark so they might want to drop a bit lower.
I thought its first run of the season after a long lay off was decent even though it was last.
Hasnt run as well since but at 33/1 I have to have a little interest.
 
Hip hip hooray!! Faylaq goes in the November Handicap 20-1, and I can't see any way he'll be higher than that come the day.

Gets the mile and a half
Gets the soft ground
Rowan Scott's on, knows him well enough
He'll have had close to a month's break

Couple of 3 year olds from usual suspects look set to go
There's a chance Tritonic could run
And who could totally discount On To Victory having a last day in the sun

Apart from those, don't see anything else to overly worry about
 
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GL, Chaumi.
Lunar Jet was btn 4l on sft last year, and could get in 11lb lower this.
66/1 at the mo. and needs 7 to drop out; be interesting if he runs.
 
reet hard said:
GL, Chaumi.
Lunar Jet was btn 4l on sft last year, and could get in 11lb lower this.
66/1 at the mo. and needs 7 to drop out; be interesting if he runs.
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That would be a superb result for Michael Mullineaux if LJ could get in and run close - a career highlight. And it would be great to see that happen.
 
Outsider said:
It's the time of year when you cant be certain if a horse is trying or just running to get a reduction in the ratings.

GEORGE RIDSDALE 230R 33/1 could be running to get a further drop for an a/w campaign.
Hes back to his last winning mark so they might want to drop a bit lower.
I thought its first run of the season after a long lay off was decent even though it was last.
Hasnt run as well since but at 33/1 I have to have a little interest.
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Good luck, Outsider. It's going to be proper heavy.
 
8.00 Kempton Adace 50-1 B365 (lower with all others)

A class 6 and literally anything could win this, so definitely one to keep stakes small.

Adace was 80-1 a couple of hours ago on the back of a drift from this morning. You'd really want the 80s, but 50-1 is just about doable. May shorten a little.

So, you'd perhaps normally be putting a line through a runner drawn on the furthest outside of a 13/14 runner 7f Kempton handicap.

But....

Adace came from last to first to win a class 6 at Chelmsford last Nov going away by a couple of lengths + (round the outside)
Followed by a 'from the back' head second to G'Daay in a class 5, also at Chelmsford. (up the inside)

With this draw, she's virtually guaranteed to be adrift after the start.
3 runs since those are nowhere near so notable.
The most recent got left few lengths adrift at the start (couldn't get blindfold off, which interestingly has happened before!)
But comes here off a couple of months' break and ran well after a similar break for Mich Channon in Aug 21 to win a weak Brighton race

The way she finished in those two Chelmsford races suggests there are possibilities if she can do the same this way round and maybe keep close enough tabs at the back through the first half of the race.
 
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Thx to Outsider for the heads up that Faylaq is up at 25s with Hills (with a boost, too)

Ground is supposedly heavy right now. But the forecast indicates the course might escape any further heavy rain and could even be mildly drying conditions between now and Sat. Might not materially change it, but not getting worse would be preferable.

They all have to go through it.


***I'm having trouble second-guessing Tritonic. It was clear after Goodwood that this was the next target. But looks like he's still in the Greatwood. If Tritonic runs and has a hard race on Saturday, the yard will know they've probably kissed the Greatwood goodbye.***


**edit - Faylaq now 33-1 Hills**
 
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Keeneland 9.40, Major Dude 20/1

If Jinnyj is right about the Godolphin fav it opens value elsewhere and this one is second top on RPRs.
 
The veterans chase at Cheltenham tomorrow is a poor race despite a couple of high class horses heading the weights, if better known over further and hurdles respectively.

Every runner has serious question marks and nearly all would want an extra half mile + which includes bottom weight; Another Emotion but he’s a similar chance on recent, past form at the weights to many of them so 40/1 3 places (33/1 4 places Sky) is worth the risk.
 
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wilsonl said:
The veterans chase at Cheltenham tomorrow is a poor race despite a couple of high class horses heading the weights, if better known over further and hurdles respectively.

Every runner has serious question marks and nearly all would want an extra half mile + which includes bottom weight; Another Emotion but he’s a similar chance on recent, past form at the weights to many of them so 40/1 3 places (33/1 4 places Sky) is worth the risk.
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I know it's a longshot you picked, good luck with it. Just be aware though that there looks to be a strong pace here which could bring some of the slower further distance horse into it.
 
EC21 said:
I know it's a longshot you picked, good luck with it. Just be aware though that there looks to be a strong pace here which could bring some of the slower further distance horse into it.
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Exactly what I’m relying on EC as he’s one of them but he has a featherweight

Full disclosure, I’ve backed Ballyandy to win at 3s and this one e/w @ 40/1.

Ballyandy is not a natural chaser but it’s a shite race.
 
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Captain Tom Cat (12/1) & Native Robin (7/1) double 103/1

Add Hubrisko (2/1) for the treble for 311/1

... looking to smash the thread record :lol:
 
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