The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I've now added Sheer Rocks (50/1, 5 places, BOG) - it's generally fairly tight on my ratings (as a handicap should be) but I have this one on the same rating as Thundering, currently around 9/1, so I suspect the price is wrong.
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Sheer rocks is in my alerts.good luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Strange ride. The jockey seemed determined to concede a good early position - the prominent racers were generally still there at the end - and then the horse was shuffled back and could never get back into it. Today probably just wasn't the day but it wasn't fun to watch.
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I dont think he intentionally conceded a good position as they bunched up and couldnt get back into it.very disappointing tbh.
And it's now getting very expensive to follow.
BOPEDRO never tried a tap today which I expected.didnt want to ruin a good mark for 12 grand when the Balmoral is worth 90 grand.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now added Sheer Rocks (50/1, 5 places, BOG) - it's generally fairly tight on my ratings (as a handicap should be) but I have this one on the same rating as Thundering, currently around 9/1, so I suspect the price is wrong.
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Only a head between them at the line but nowhere near the money. SPs 40/1 v 10/1.
 
Newmarket 5.20 - Intellogent 25/1 (BOG) - it's a pretty average renewal of this race and I can't warm to many of the protagonists so have taken this one in the hope they're going for it. I suspect this is a prep for the ultra-valuable Balmoral Handicap coming up soon but if they're genuinely targeting this race and happy to pick up a penalty then the price is too long based on my figures. I'm hoping the booking of Kirby indicates that it's trying.
 
York

3.15 Zarzyni is too big a price now touching 33/1 on the basis he can return to his best form. He is back down to his last winning mark of 99. He has been with David Barron for about 18 months and overall paid his way quite well, winning two races and finishing second five times. It hasn't all gone his way this season but I just feel I can't let him go unbacked at 33/1 now he is back on a mark in the high 90's. I will give him one more chance this season here tomorrow.
 
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Yes, Zarzyni is on my radar too as a possible saver.

Are you abandoning Gis A Sub? It's also on my radar but, to be honest, I haven't checked the price. I'm quite heavily into one that doesn't qualify for the thread but it wouldn't be hard to guess what it is :lol:
 
Geremia 5.00 York 20-1 Has the look and feel of a typical Goldie good class performer that will be winning races for the next 6 years.

Close(ish) 2nd in two good Newcastle 1m2f handicaps in August

But it was the York race on 21 Aug (before those Newcastle races) that signals the potential more. Well beaten into 3rd although finishing well, but did best of those racing in the rear, it was fast ground, and reportedly didn't get a clear run (can't get to see a rerun so not sure on the extent of his troubles there)

And, in the Cambridgeshire, did not run badly at all given he ran far side, and 9f was always looking like it would be too short. I think the hope would have been his stamina for 10f+ would kick in, and maybe the leaders would come back a bit, but you'd think that's not going to work too often in a Cambridgeshire (not when running on an apparently unfavoured side, anyway).


Only obvious form on soft looks to be back in an Ascot maiden early in his career. Given the lack of experience at that point, there are fair reasons for considering it a good run (was with M Botti at the time). Appeared to run OK (only a 3 runner race). Theoretically, with no additional rain, it may well have dried out to G/S by the time of this race anyway. Has stamina to run a good race over further, so if it is still softish and he handles it, seems a good chance he'll be finishing well from the rear.

There would have to be a worry this is one race too many for the season, but seems a resilient sort on the overall balance of his profile

******

There are two old favourites here that could easily go very well (Fishable and Faylaq). Both too short for this thread so no write up.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes, Zarzyni is on my radar too as a possible saver.

Are you abandoning Gis A Sub? It's also on my radar but, to be honest, I haven't checked the price. I'm quite heavily into one that doesn't qualify for the thread but it wouldn't be hard to guess what it is :lol:
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I considered both Gis A Sub and Volatile Anaylist who was last years winner of this race. It's possible they could both out run the odds yes, although I am happpy enough to stick with Zarzyni. Good luck all today.
 
Saturday, Long Distance Cup - Wordsworth 50/1 BOG - that's a massive price but I worry about the dead eight becoming the zombie seven.

His form in the spring with Princess Zoe at Sandown entitles him to a lot more respect than that price and last time out he was trying to give 8lbs (after WFA) to Waterville, 7/2 for this, and was beaten less than eight lengths. In theory, his chance is similar to Waterville's. It looks like he doesn't hold an entry for Australia so it can't be prepping for that. I'll also look at the market without Trueshan on Saturday morning.
 
BALMORAL

Magical morning 33/1 5 places or 25/1 6places

Quite capable.Gosdens record In this is I think 4 or 5 2nd places and a 3rd.in recent years.
 
Ascot 2.40 - Verry Elleegant 25/1, 4 places - As I said on the Ascot thread, I don't quite 'get' the very high RPR for her but it stems from her win in the Melbourne Cup. Her details on the RPR site show her as having an OR of 123 but the card I printed off the other day showed 113. Still, the MC takes a bit of winning so she must be decent. On RPRs she's 5lbs clear of Emily Upjohn and the rest so can the RPRs really be so far wrong that she's a 25/1 shot in reality? I don't know, to be honest, but suspect it's unlikely. The Melbourne Cup was a standout performance on RPRs and she subsequently moved to the northern hemisphere. Maybe she's taken time to acclimatise but I can't justify letting go unbacked one that's got a 5lbs advantage over the rest of the field even if the ratings aren't my own and I don't trust them 100%.

Edit - it looks like her MC rating is based on a direct line with Spanish Mission and she ran the 2m in 3m 17s on 'good' ground. There isn't a Standard Time for any 2m Flat track in the UK anywhere near that.
 
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My longshots for tomorrow.

2.00 Fresh has something to find on official ratings but loves big fields here at Ascot. He does bring top class handicap form to the table. Obviously this is a Group 1 but with a bit of luck if we assume he can run to his best, the fact he gets seven furlongs may work in his favour. I'd like to see him ridden closer to the pace for obvious reasons. 40/1 or thereabouts will do for me each way.

4.00 Mac Swiney. This fella is completely overlooked in the betting market. While he has been out of form, he won his 2000 Guineas on soft or heavy ground in Ireland and out ran the odds in this race last year when placing at 40/1. On the back of a nice break off the track I fancy a flutter at this huge price that he can run into a place here. He might need several to underperform, but I reckon he might just grab third place with plenty luck. He should like cut in the ground.

4.40 I have changed my mind a few times on this race for obvious reasons. A competative handicap where plenty have chances. I have decided I will chance Johan who won the Lincoln at the start of the year. He comes into this race fresh after a break and I reckon he could run really well if Mick Channon and his team have him right.

Good luck all tomorrow. I'd be delighted if I could get some of the above horses placed tomorrow although the odds say it's pretty unlikely.
 
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I've ended up lighting on a few more to appropriately small stakes:

2.00 - Run To Freedom 150/1, 5 places - ran well for me last time and they're persevering so some sentimental involvement.

4.40 - Perotto 20/1, Magical Morning 28/1, Accidental Agent 25/1, Safe Voyage 28/1, Stormy Antarctic 33/1 - all small win-only bets for the sake of a widespread interest on ones I think are over-priced.
 
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Thanks, guys.

Missed the race 'cos I was catching up on the opener :lol:

Yes, I'll take a 150/1 placing over a 6/4 shot every day of the week and twice on a Sunday.

It will certainly more than cover all the longshots today.
 
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Hear hear!

It gives anyone backing something at bigger odds a bit of hope for the rest of the day aswell. It can be done.
 
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