The 2022 Longshot Thread

Early ante-post shot for the Albert Bartlett - Salvador Ziggy, 66/1 - looks on a steep curve and had some horses rated 140/150 well behind last time over 3m. I've no idea if the plan is to stay over hurdles or go chasing but he's already looking like a high-140s horse at this stage and who knows when his curve will start to plateau. It wasn't too long ago that kind of rating would win the race. I see they're talking about the Pertemps Final but he's already rated 146 so a top six finish anywhere (engaged at Cheltenham this weekend) in a qualifier will give him that option but what if he's just too good to pass up the Albert Bartlett?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Early ante-post shot for the Albert Bartlett - Salvador Ziggy, 66/1 - looks on a steep curve and had some horses rated 140/150 well behind last time over 3m. I've no idea if the plan is to stay over hurdles or go chasing but he's already looking like a high-140s horse at this stage and who knows when his curve will start to plateau. It wasn't too long ago that kind of rating would win the race. I see they're talking about the Pertemps Final but he's already rated 146 so a top six finish anywhere (engaged at Cheltenham this weekend) in a qualifier will give him that option but what if he's just too good to pass up the Albert Bartlett?
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Thinking about this again, for Salvador Ziggy to win this weekend's Pertemps qualifier off 145 he'd need to be a 152+ animal, which would reinforce my fancying him for the Albert Bartlett but it also has me thinking he's maybe just here to qualify. I've taken 25/1, 5 places, BOG Kansas City Chief, who goes so well for his jockey as well as here. The fast ground is a bit of an unknown but, for me, that’s amply compensated for in the price.
 
Tomorrow, Cheltenham 2.45 - Lord Snootie 50/1 - nothing in his form really to go on but he is a winning pointer in what looks a particularly weak renewal of the race and, last season, the trainer proved himself beyond shrewd. Market weakness is a concern but at the price I can't let it go unbacked but it is pure speculation on my part.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tomorrow, Cheltenham 2.45 - Lord Snootie 50/1 - nothing in his form really to go on but he is a winning pointer in what looks a particularly weak renewal of the race and, last season, the trainer proved himself beyond shrewd. Market weakness is a concern but at the price I can't let it go unbacked but it is pure speculation on my part.
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There’s money going on the Ann Duffield runner in that race. I’m keeping my eyes on her NH runners these days because they’re springing a few surprises.
 
moehat said:
I’m keeping my eyes on her NH runners these days because they’re springing a few surprises.
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You mean like taking the Swinton :-)

AD has had a few jumps winners over the last few months, with generally most of them running well.

The question in my head is whether that's just firepower that can go well in the spring and summer, or whether Ann has the ammo to mix it with the winter-level opposition.

The Swinton win would suggest there are good prospects. Time will tell. Maybe three runners at Cheltenham in one day for what is/was a predominately flat stable tells its own story.

It's certainly not going to be a surprise if The Wounded Knee runs well, though you'd have to think it will be too tough against a few of these. But the 100-1 on Fiston De Mou looks like a fun bet, and he could go well. Out of the three, my coins are coming down on him as the one. A (very) small EW treble beckons.
 
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The odds on Desert Friend in the novice have taken me by surprise. 33-1 and a bit higher with PP and BFS.

Has form against Salvador Ziggy that might entitle him to go well...and Dennis Hogan sent Zoffanien to run reasonably well in the Fred Winter last March. Donagh Meyler rides and was on for the Ziggy race. I guess there's a chance this is more of a run to get Cheltenham experience, but the 33s seems worth the chance.
 
The33s on Thibault in the first just disappeared, but 28-1 B3 looks a little overpriced. Around this time last year, Thibault was running close in good class hurdles at Sandown and Haydock, and 6 months before that in an Ascot Class 2.

Adam West does well enough with his jumps runners. No surprise to see the Thib run well today.
 
chaumi said:
The odds on Desert Friend in the novice have taken me by surprise. 33-1 and a bit higher with PP and BFS.

Has form against Salvador Ziggy that might entitle him to go well...and Dennis Hogan sent Zoffanien to run reasonably well in the Fred Winter last March. Donagh Meyler rides and was on for the Ziggy race. I guess there's a chance this is more of a run to get Cheltenham experience, but the 33s seems worth the chance.
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Ran a respectable race, couldn't go with them the last 2.
 
GEREMIA 230D 33/1 I've been waiting for it to run over 1m 4f for a while and if the November hcap is the plan then it might need to win this to get in.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thinking about this again, for Salvador Ziggy to win this weekend's Pertemps qualifier off 145 he'd need to be a 152+ animal, which would reinforce my fancying him for the Albert Bartlett but it also has me thinking he's maybe just here to qualify.
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Qualification achieved but that's a fine performance off 145 and top weight, giving a job horse 16lbs. It probably amounts to around 150, 5lbs improvement on previous form and another 5lbs between now and March would put him on a par with an average AB winner.
 
Got away with one there, Ain't that a Shame was a tracker for me last season when he ran well behind Stattler. Tempted me there but was just a bit too short. Fells good when a horse you almost back gets done on the line.
 
Thanks to whoever tipped up Loft for the Melbourne Cup at 20/1. I’ve just noticed it’s 6/1 second favourite!
 
Can't desert Wise Glory now. 3.10 Chepstow 40-1 B365. Close to half that most others.

I logged in expecting 20. So, 40s is close to an insult, and it won't be a surprise if it doesn't last long.

Most in this class 5 are exposed enough. 40-1 with 5 places is good enough. I believe the stable rate Wisey better than this. Last chance saloon, if he can't do something in this low a class I don't know where they go from here.
 
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Some alerts running tomorrow.
WISHED 435C 33/1
EVER ROCK 215C 40/1
POETS DAWN 135N 25/1......1st
BLUE DE VEGA 66/1 and VENTURA FLAME 50/1
MR SUNDOWNER 505N 80/1

A winner,the rest were s*ite.
 
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Hennessy (Coral Gold Cup or whatever it is now) - Major Dundee 25/1 - this is a standout price with B365. The next best price is 16/1 with one firm and generally shorter. He runs in tomorrow's £100k Ascot race but will need to go up at least 6lbs - assuming Protektorat stands his ground - to get in at Newbury off bottom weight. He's 4/1f for tomorrow and is one of the more likely candidates. A win will probably see those odds halve so, for me, this is worth having onside at this stage.
 
Alan King

"He (MD) has strengthened up quite considerably in the summer and really thickened out. We will see how we go but we might think of one run and then going for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. We will step him up in trip later in the year"
 
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