The 2022 Longshot Thread

Cheltenham

2.20 I wasn't sure about any of them and so with the dead 8 runners will chance Milanford for a sporting each way bet. He ran ok when second three times over fences about 2 years ago, when once he out ran odds of 66/1 to place in second at Exeter. I'd be delighted to get a run for my money today and maybe he can do it again?
 
Last edited:
Paddy Power - Nassalam 25/1 (Unibet - cash back if second or third) - I backed this one last time but it jumped persistently left at Ascot. The chances are it was only prepping anyway but it still managed to be well there until the home turn. It should be much more at home on this track. I had stablemate Editeur Du Gite on my long list but wasn't confident about him at this trip. I'm not sure if he was there to keep the weights down if Mister Fisher came out but Nassalam had Moore booked to ride and is now their sole runner. I reckon wherever the other 5yo Il Ridoto finishes this fella won't be far behind, if behind at all.
 
In the spirit of throwing money away with gay abandon, I’ve permed all the Honeyball horses in forecasts for the Bumper. Payout will be in the 100’s if any of them hit.
 
Oh no. Sorry Hate to say this but I’d backed two of them because 3 out of 4 were in my jumping prospects book. Notbitterbutbetter wasn’t in the book but I thought I’d better put some pennies on it now.
 
CORMIER 33/1 greatwood hurdle it's a poor quality race really and this looks way overpriced.
Severance is in my alerts and on its form with cormier it shouldnt beat him and n'golo beat severance and so on a line through him he shouldnt beat mine.
Ben Bromley takes 7 off so it ought to be in the mix.hopefully.
 
2.20 - Indy Five 20/1 - top rated on my figures but vulnerable to second-season novices. However, my figures suggest he's still improving despite his age and all his best form is on good ground.
 
Greatwood - just noticed N'golo is 33/1. That's probably more than twice what it should be so a wee saver seems in order.
 
I read that horses are being sent to Ann Duffield to be sweetened up so that might have been the plan all along.
 
moehat said:
I read that horses are being sent to Ann Duffield to be sweetened up so that might have been the plan all along.
Click to expand...


Yeah, they just mentioned on TV...there is some sort of background relationship at play, they seemed to be saying N'Golo is effectively still in the same yard.

And just noticed, the winner of the first has the AD to PN profile.
 
Last edited:
It seems to be the way forward for trainers to share stables. I’ve kept an eye on Ann Duffields stable from when we used to stay at Middleham a lot and I was wondering why she’d started training jumpers.
 
N'golo was acting weird at the start, didn't seem to want to line up anywhere near the others and, for quite some time, it looked like he may not go at all. It would appear this wasn't anywhere near true running and maybe something was up, but need to check back on footage of the Swinton (or other earlier others) and see if this has some history.

About 3 out, your Indy Five was looking pretty good, DO. Always a nice surprise when you find out the 4th counts :-)
 
Last edited:
He used to take a fierce hold in his races so maybe they’ve ended up trying to get him to settle so much he doesn’t want to go at all.
 
At some point, Ruth Jefferson will find the key to Sir Jim 1.03 Newc 50-1 B3. Today? Who knows!

I put SJ up for a Uttoxeter race a good few months ago, did nothing. Comes here off a wind-op.
 
Last edited:
You may well be right!

Didn't look like they had any real intentions here. Anchored at the back, clattered the 8th, and that was the end of any remote prospect of getting involved.
 
Have taken an each-way chance on Ailie Rose (general 25/1) in the 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock on Saturday.

With the claimers allowance taken into account, she's 13lbs better off for running Good Risk At all (smart horse in the making, imo) for a 5L beating in her season-opener. Saturday's longer trip is probably in her favour, and she should have no problem handling heavy ground.
 
Grasshopper said:
Have taken an each-way chance on Ailie Rose (general 25/1) in the 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock on Saturday.

With the claimers allowance taken into account, she's 13lbs better off for running Good Risk At all (smart horse in the making, imo) for a 5L beating in her season-opener. Saturday's longer trip is probably in her favour, and she should have no problem handling heavy ground.
Click to expand...

Hills in to 22/1 from 33's...
Just took 40's 365
 
Grasshopper said:
Sadly, I can't get on with B365, Max - though I have managed to get 33's at Sky.
Click to expand...

Strangely enough I’ve just come on to put one up in the same race.

I cannot believe Wholestone is 33/1 for this.

Yes he’s 11 now but he doesn’t have much to find with the fancied Good Risk at All from Carlisle and is going to be much better suited by this extra half furlong at Haydock in what could turn out to be bad ground.

He was only one of two horses that handled those conditions here in a G2 in February when winning by 13 lengths.

The price is so wrong, win or lose

Edit : Agree Aislie Rose has a much better than 28/1 chance so as the wife managed to get a 365 account, she’s taken that price to 4 places too.
 
Last edited:
chaumi said:
8.00 Kempton Adace 50-1 B365 (lower with all others)

A class 6 and literally anything could win this, so definitely one to keep stakes small.

Adace was 80-1 a couple of hours ago on the back of a drift from this morning. You'd really want the 80s, but 50-1 is just about doable. May shorten a little.

So, you'd perhaps normally be putting a line through a runner drawn on the furthest outside of a 13/14 runner 7f Kempton handicap.

But....

Adace came from last to first to win a class 6 at Chelmsford last Nov going away by a couple of lengths + (round the outside)
Followed by a 'from the back' head second to G'Daay in a class 5, also at Chelmsford. (up the inside)

With this draw, she's virtually guaranteed to be adrift after the start.
3 runs since those are nowhere near so notable.
The most recent got left few lengths adrift at the start (couldn't get blindfold off, which interestingly has happened before!)
But comes here off a couple of months' break and ran well after a similar break for Mich Channon in Aug 21 to win a weak Brighton race

The way she finished in those two Chelmsford races suggests there are possibilities if she can do the same this way round and maybe keep close enough tabs at the back through the first half of the race.
Click to expand...

Tried to lead all the way and so is that classed as a non Trier for a hold up horse.
Out again at Kempton tomorrow 815 28/1
 
Outsider said:
Tried to lead all the way and so is that classed as a non Trier for a hold up horse.
Out again at Kempton tomorrow 815 28/1
Click to expand...

Thx Outsider Yeah, I saw it. I'm half tempted to wait and see how he gets out and try to be ready to hit the BF button just out the gates. We were hoping for Chelmsford!
 
chaumi said:
Thx Outsider Yeah, I saw it. I'm half tempted to wait and see how he gets out and try to be ready to hit the BF button just out the gates. We were hoping for Chelmsford!
Click to expand...

Yes,I thought that,about waiting for the start.and it could need a further drop in the weights and back at chelmsford.
Badly drawn again isnt it?
 
Back
Top