The 2022 Longshot Thread

Asc 2.05 - Belargus 33/1, 4 places - now dangerously handicapped and JPs are always ones to watch out for in the better races on the cards. No big expectations and only a small saver to back up my main bet in the race.
 
Asc 2.05 - Belargus 33/1, 4 places - now dangerously handicapped and JPs are always ones to watch out for in the better races on the cards. No big expectations and only a small saver to back up my main bet in the race.

Yeah, I'm already on. Nick Gifford brought Northern Poet back from a 600 day-odd break to win sweetly a few days ago. The only one of his that's disappointed unexpectedly recently is The Mighty Don, who's been running like the proverbial 3LD. There's enough evidence in Belargus' history to suggest he can go OK fresh. Agreed, 33-1 is too big and would be a waste to leave it, either way it goes.
 
Saturday, Asc 3.15 - Amoola Gold 20/1, BOG - no shortage of disappointing runs to forgive but now 8lbs lower than when beaten in a photo in this race last year.
 
Strangely enough I’ve just come on to put one up in the same race.

I cannot believe Wholestone is 33/1 for this.



Aislie Rose is a Whole stone better off with Wholestone for a neck, pun intended....

Into 14's with Hills and 20's 365
 
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I haven't backed AR yet but she's on my radar too now that I've done my figures for the race. Well done on getting 33s those that did. A smashing early spot.
 
The old saying goes; "never look a gift horse in the mouth" usually we look after the present has arrived only to kick ourselves afterward, having not looked closer. Paul Webber runs Eyed in the maiden hurdle, first on the card at Ascot today. Never really put into the races on both highly tried tests last season, going off 200 and 250/1 in both races. The first was against Constitution Hill no less and the second, he was pulled up behind Jonbon at Aintree, a course and distance a million miles away from what his breeding would suggest he needs. If you watch the first race closely; after being badly impeded by a faller, he runs on steadily up the hill at Sandown through beaten horses. he can clearly hurdle neatly and has stamina. I've seen worse 40/1 (33's for 4 places Skybet) shots and Should today be the day that connections decide to have a go, then don't complain for not eying it up closer later. I will follow this horse in future races as he inevitably will go in races with much more of a stamina requirement, and the way he looks to have been campaigned; he should have a tidy mark to go to work with, in handicaps!
 
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Aislie Rose is a Whole stone better off with Wholestone for a neck, pun intended....

Into 14's with Hills and 20's 365

But this is at Haydock over 3m in what you have already suggested could be bottomless ground.

Not many horses handle that but we know for certain Wholestone does. I’ve covered on Ailie Rose @ 28s as they were both too big.
 
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The old saying goes; "never look a gift horse in the mouth" usually we look after the present has arrived only to kick ourselves afterward, having not looked closer. Paul Webber runs Eyed in the maiden hurdle, first on the card at Ascot today. Never really put into the races on both highly tried tests last season, going off 200 and 250/1 in both races. The first was against Constitution Hill no less and the second, he was pulled up behind Jonbon at Aintree, a course and distance a million miles away from what his breeding would suggest he needs. If you watch the first race closely; after being badly impeded by a faller, he runs on steadily up the hill at Sandown through beaten horses. he can clearly hurdle neatly and has stamina. I've seen worse 40/1 (33's for 4 places Skybet) shots and Should today be the day that connections decide to have a go, then don't complain for not eying it up closer later. I will follow this horse in future races as he inevitably will go in races with much more of a stamina requirement, and the way he looks to have been campaigned; he should have a tidy mark to go to work with, in handicaps!


Eyed on the gallops...


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The old saying goes; "never look a gift horse in the mouth" usually we look after the present has arrived only to kick ourselves afterward, having not looked closer. Paul Webber runs Eyed in the maiden hurdle, first on the card at Ascot today. Never really put into the races on both highly tried tests last season, going off 200 and 250/1 in both races. The first was against Constitution Hill no less and the second, he was pulled up behind Jonbon at Aintree, a course and distance a million miles away from what his breeding would suggest he needs. If you watch the first race closely; after being badly impeded by a faller, he runs on steadily up the hill at Sandown through beaten horses. he can clearly hurdle neatly and has stamina. I've seen worse 40/1 (33's for 4 places Skybet) shots and Should today be the day that connections decide to have a go, then don't complain for not eying it up closer later. I will follow this horse in future races as he inevitably will go in races with much more of a stamina requirement, and the way he looks to have been campaigned; he should have a tidy mark to go to work with, in handicaps!

The only issue I have with this, is that Paul Webber is fu*cking useless.
 
But this is at Haydock over 3m in what you have already suggested could be bottomless ground.

Not many horses handle that but we know for certain Wholestone does. I’ve covered on Ailie Rose @ 28s as they were both too big.

Ayr 2m 5f HEAVY...chased leader, led 5th, going easily 3 out, ridden and went clear approaching last, comfortably.

Last time out behind GRA and Wholestone over 2m 4f on HEAVY ground...In touch with leaders, nudged along and went third 2 out, ridden run-in, kept on.

In receipt of upwards of 12Lb off From and an extra 4f that will definitely suit having won by a going away 6L in April...
 
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Thx Outsider Yeah, I saw it. I'm half tempted to wait and see how he gets out and try to be ready to hit the BF button just out the gates. We were hoping for Chelmsford!

4th 40/1 I got paid out with bet365 but only 25/1 didnt get bog.dont know why,.
 
4th 40/1 I got paid out with bet365 but only 25/1 didnt get bog.dont know why,.

Was out at a Xmas do so missed it. Flying from the back almost perfectly to plan..and I'd read that Mark Usher fancied his Twilight Revenge, so stuck them in an RFC. Close, but not quite close enough!
 
Saturday, Asc 3.15 - Amoola Gold 20/1, BOG - no shortage of disappointing runs to forgive but now 8lbs lower than when beaten in a photo in this race last year.

Drifted to 33s even with Edwardstone out and that’s surely too big. As you say though there’s plenty to forgive especially his run here 3 weeks ago. A free fiver from Denise going this way


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Fascinating to see how he goes today.

Last year in the Byrne Group he was behind but came back to win as there was a pace collape
In the Hurst Park Before Midnight set a steady pace unhindered up front and AG was able to keep up but by this stage he was quite high in the h/cap
I backed him the last day in the Byrne Group again and again he was left behind, there was no pace collapse this time though.
So today we have a similar scenario in the Hurst Park again - Before Midnight should have an uncontested lead.
 
For all Skelton appears to set out to win just about every race in which he has a runner, he is also very much a target trainer with certain horses and certain races, eg Ch'tibello and his other County horses.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this race has been Amoola Gold's target for a long time.
 
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Haydock 2.25 - Tronador 50/1, 4pl - it's very weak (I'm sure it was under 20/1 on Thursday) which last week was a strong indicator that certain Irish horses were going to run badly so my financial involvement in this one is only a token one but the horse is jt-second-top on my figures and is a second-season novice. I'd maybe be more worried if this were a run-of-the-mill race but this is one of Haydock's biggest handicaps of the season so if this is a non-trier I have to wonder just what they have in mind for it. I just can't let it go unbacked at the price.
 
Strangely enough I’ve just come on to put one up in the same race.

I cannot believe Wholestone is 33/1 for this.

Yes he’s 11 now but he doesn’t have much to find with the fancied Good Risk at All from Carlisle and is going to be much better suited by this extra half furlong at Haydock in what could turn out to be bad ground.

He was only one of two horses that handled those conditions here in a G2 in February when winning by 13 lengths.

The price is so wrong, win or lose

Edit : Agree Aislie Rose has a much better than 28/1 chance so as the wife managed to get a 365 account, she’s taken that price to 4 places too.

Nice shout, Lee - hope you backed it each-way.

Ailie Rose beaten when falling. Jockey possibly didn’t make enough use of her, tbh.
 
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One day Easysland is going to win a race at a huge price when I haven’t backed it. He falls into the ‘ why are they persevering with this horse’ category.
 
He's still pretty young.

I wouldn't be surprised if the plan is to get him into the National off 148. He was top weight a year or two back.
 
Nice shout, Lee - hope you backed it each-way.

Ailie Rose beaten when falling. Jockey possibly didn’t make enough use of her, tbh.

Cheers Grass, yes 33/1 fair payout but my biggest winners of the day were getting to the golf course hungover and forgetting to back Alberts Back & Thyme White
 
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