The 2022 Longshot Thread

Navan 2.20 - Glenloe 40/1, 6 places - top on my ratings but vulnerable to second-season novices so not my main bet (mentioned elsewhere). Market weakness is a concern, though.
 
One of my alerts is running at southwell 1225 and has drifted from 16s to 50/1 so I have to have a pound ew.
MY SILVER LINING.
 
Becher Chase - Didero Vallis 25/1 - did last season's thread no harm when third at the festival at 66/1 and is back on the same mark. It's VW's only entry at this stage but I wasn't keeping track of previous stages so don't know if this is the last one remaining or the sole entry. Bottom line: it's handicapped to run well. The fences are an unknown but that will be the case for many.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Becher Chase - Didero Vallis 25/1 - did last season's thread no harm when third at the festival at 66/1 and is back on the same mark. It's VW's only entry at this stage but I wasn't keeping track of previous stages so don't know if this is the last one remaining or the sole entry. Bottom line: it's handicapped to run well. The fences are an unknown but that will be the case for many.
Click to expand...

You got me worried with that, looks a danger to Fortescue (best now 25 WH, was 40 for a long time). DV will be getting well over a stone from Fortescue.

+ Fortescue has a Welsh National trial entry. I suspect they'll go wherever it's softer. I thought (hoped) by now it would be close to heavy everywhere, but Chepstow is showing GS and Aintree soft.

One think with Fortescue....we know he can jump the fences. Did well in the National till a clumsyish (maybe tiring) mistake and unseat a handful or so out. The Becher distance ought to be perfect...but I fear that heavy ground is a prerequisite.
 
Isn't Fortescue also in the Coral Welsh National trial this Saturday at Chepstow?

And the London National trial at Sandown.

Has Henry Daly definately said he will run in the Becher, Chaum?
 
Last edited:
Marb said:
Isn't Fortescue also in the Coral Welsh National trial this Saturday at Chepstow?

And the London National trial at Sandown.

Has Henry Daly definately said he will run in the Becher, Chaum?
Click to expand...

Yeah Marb, I mentioned the Chepstow entry. I think he'll go wherever it's softest. But it's a lottery. Three coins in the air atm...and I didn't know about Sandown. But I've been on Fortescue for around 2 weeks for the Becher, so the damage was already done my end.
 
I noted TORONTO last time in a hot hcap at Cheltenham and tomorrow it runs at wincanton 255
It might need to drop some more and maybe into class 4 but at the price I have to have my pound ew on

150/1
 
Fortescue goes to Aintree...but it's probably not soft enough. wtf has happened to the rain.

Didero Vallis has Lucy T on board. Might feel like he's running loose in this.
 
Chepstow

1.37 Grand Mogul was once with Gordon Elliott then moved to Nicky Henderson, (which I'd view as an indicator that he was thought of as a decent prospect).

He won his first start over hurdles in a maiden hurdle here at Chepstow and not long after when starting chasing won a class three novice chase by about 10 lengths.

He put in two poor efforts after that and left Nicky Hendersons yard on to a lesser known trainer called Gail Haywood who I must confess I have never heard of.

However, this lightly raced chaser is not best judged on his worst two starts before leaving Nicky Henserson's yard, and his course form at Chepstow is a positive. He's won twice first time out aswell, and he looks like a longshot I want to back tomorrow.

I don't think the 4lbs he is out of the handicap is as bad as it might seem, and fingers crossed he can out run these odds of 50/1 in a big way.

I'll hazard a guess if he were with a more well known trainer he'd be half his current odds. I reckon he falls into the 'could be anything' catagory and I am happy to have a dabble each way.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top