The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
De Rasher Counter Ran much better than I anticipated. At one point I was muttering to the telly for the jockey to give it an easier time of it up the straight but he duly blew up and my hopes for the National are raised on the back of that. They appeared to be going a decent enough pace - they probably won't go faster in the National itself - and he kept tabs comfortably with G1/G2 horses.

I'm very surprised one bookie pushed him out to 100/1 and I went in again.
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I can see why he went out in price...
He's had 2 runs in nearly 800 days, the first of which, he went up 7Lb's for finishing second. The other his first run-in over a year, running off an official rating that the handicapper had no reason to look at. Surely the handicapper will drop him at least 6Lb's for handing in a sick note....
 
Maxbet said:
I can see why he went out in price...
He's had 2 runs in nearly 800 days, the first of which, he went up 7Lb's for finishing second. The other his first run-in over a year, running off an official rating that the handicapper had no reason to look at. Surely the handicapper will drop him at least 6Lb's for handing in a sick note....
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The handicapper already did drop him for his absence. Yesterday his OR was 149. His last run over fences (March 2020) was off 157.

It looks like you're also confusing his hurdles mark with his chase mark. His run last season was over hurdles off 142. His current hurdles OR is 143. (It's possible he went up more than 1lb for being second and it has been adjusted back down due to his absence but it was a hurdles race.)

As I said, he's already won a strong Hennessy off his current mark.

The brother was on the phone yesterday before racing to tell me he'd read in the RP [in the bookie's] a comment by Emma Lavelle about the horse's prep and that she expected him to blow up. His interpretation was that she was telling the handicapper not to drop him if it happened in yesterday's race. We'll know on Tuesday if he was right.

I look forward to An Capall's comments on my enthusiasm for the unveiling of the weights. If he thought I was OTT with the Betfair Hurdle...
 
Desert Orchid said:
The brother was on the phone yesterday before racing to tell me he'd read in the RP [in the bookie's] a comment by Emma Lavelle about the horse's prep and that she expected him to blow up. His interpretation was that she was telling the handicapper not to drop him if it happened in yesterday's race. We'll know on Tuesday if he was right.
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144 beckons
 
Grand National - Cloth Cap 40/1, 5pl - has been very disappointing this season so the price is entirely understandable. However, he was 11/2f for the race last season when 8lbs well in off 148 and those disappointments have seen his mark drop from 162, to which he was raised after that Kelso romp, back down to 147.

There's been no shortage of debate on here about whether that 162 was merited but it still allows for everything else in that race running below form. The mark was later revised down to 156 so 147 still looks lenient.

He wouldn't be the first horse to put disappointing runs behind him in this race. Some of my most satisfying winners have had disappointing runs of form to forgive: Ben Nevis, Last Suspect, even Rule The World. And plenty other such types have won: Royal Athlete, Mon Mome, etc.

Factor in the Trevor Hemmings colours which once-a-year punters will latch on to and there's no way the horse goes off at 40s. They operated on his wind after he disappointed in the race last year and his poor form so far this year hasn't really surprised me. I imagine there will be a feeling of unfinished business with the race. He'll get in around the 10-5 mark, an ideal weight, and will almost certainly be top-rated across all ratings firms on the pick of last season's form.

He's looked like a non-stayer, I accept, but that's a look that's easy to arrange if you've got your eyes on a bigger prize. It's a punt I'm comfortable enough with and, who knows, once the weights are out he might just run well in something like the Ultima or back at Kelso.
 
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Can’t help but feel there are several big priced horses in the bumper at Ayr that could win: looks very open. Just a case of which one!
 
moehat said:
Can’t help but feel there are several big priced horses in the bumper at Ayr that could win: looks very open. Just a case of which one!
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You’re probably right, Moe, but Kim Bailey has sent Time for Hollie all the way up there and David Bass has trundled all the way up there for the one ride.
 
It’s a Midnight had a good profile and was a bit blue on oddschecker but I backed two others as well that came 5th and @ 7th. I do like those sort of races. Smarting from the fact I missed a Mickey Hammond winner as I always back his horses when Emma rides them. Wise Eagle ran a good comeback race. I’ll be backing him for staying races throughout the season.
 
Outsider said:
My a/p Cheltenham bets.
THE JAM MAN pertemps hurdle 33/1
SHANTREUSSE alfred bartlett 66/1
ONTHEROPES national hunt chase 25/1
SIRUH DU LAC pp plate 40/1
DUFFLE COAT coral cup 33/1
CABOT CLIFFS county hurdle npa yet.

Dont know if they will run but on my previous experiences they probably wont.
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Shantreusse looking a promising rep for the thread. Fingers crossed for you, Outsider.
 
Saturday, Ascot 2.25 - Regal Encore 20/1 - the handicapper has taken a real chance in dropping this one to 140 from a high of 154 for running a head second in this race last season. He's had wind surgery since his last run.
 
I did find it strange that they’d give a wind op to a 14 year old. Or just over a week before his 14th. I like Larry in this at just double figures but best of luck DO
 
wilsonl said:
I did find it strange that they’d give a wind op to a 14 year old. Or just over a week before his 14th. I like Larry in this at just double figures but best of luck DO
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It's a really strange one. I think the fav just wins but looks like this is one last go for Regal Encore.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Festival 3m6f Novices Chase - Annual Invictus 66/1 - also holds an entry in the [ex] RSA for which he's the same price but that will be a very hot race and, on breeding, I think might improve significantly for the longer trip. A winning pointer over 3m (aren't they all?), he's been kept to 2.5m and shorter under rules so far and wasn't beaten at all far in the Betfair Hurdle, which is strong form. I reckon a lot of Irish trainers would have steered a similar path with him, not asking him too much until into his chasing career and anticipating progress for a trip over fences. I reckon there's more chance of the field for this race cutting up than the RSA and, while I might just be throwing away my money, the stakes are modest for a low-risk-high-reward punt.
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Runs in the Reynoldstown on Saturday (1st-time pieces), currently 4/1 which I plan to take. A win would be ideal but a solid promising reappearance will do for now.
 
Ascot 3.00 - Lucky One 33/1 - I'm pretty sure I put this one up earlier this season but I think it's on the old thread.

Anyroads, it's ridiculously well in on its old form but it has been disappointing. When I saw the other day that it held an entry I decided to let it go but it's blue across the board this evening so maybe Skelton has managed to find a reason for the poor form. For small stakes, I don't mind following the money this time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 3.00 - Lucky One 33/1 - I'm pretty sure I put this one up earlier this season but I think it's on the old thread.

Anyroads, it's ridiculously well in on its old form but it has been disappointing. When I saw the other day that it held an entry I decided to let it go but it's blue across the board this evening so maybe Skelton has managed to find a reason for the poor form. For small stakes, I don't mind following the money this time.
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Oh well. Fvck knows what was behind last night's move but it's back out to 40s in a place. I reckon I can write this one off.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 3.00 - Lucky One 33/1 - I'm pretty sure I put this one up earlier this season but I think it's on the old thread.

Anyroads, it's ridiculously well in on its old form but it has been disappointing. When I saw the other day that it held an entry I decided to let it go but it's blue across the board this evening so maybe Skelton has managed to find a reason for the poor form. For small stakes, I don't mind following the money this time.
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Desert Orchid said:
Oh well. Fvck knows what was behind last night's move but it's back out to 40s in a place. I reckon I can write this one off.
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Oh well, a return's a return!
 
It's a big ask to back a british horse in the county hurdle but I think
UP FOR PAROLE 50/1 coral 4p is a value bet.
 
FARINET plate 25/1 venetia has a fair record in this with longshots.her overall record at Cheltenham is moderate.
I've always thought there is more to come with this horse.
 
BEN SIEGEL boodles 33/1 bet 365. From last years winning stable.rated 127 in Ireland.
Its 3rd run to qualify was a quick one on bad ground and was well beaten but is expected to run better on better ground.
Bet365 are a standout price.
 
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