The 2022 Longshot Thread

Bua Boy (not given a hard time on his last run) at 50/1; and Cormier (won the Moorestyle last run) at 33/1. Both in the Coral Cup, and both from “that” Greatwood. My Mate Mozzie at 20s too; very well regarded earlier this season.
 
Marb said:
A couple of proper longshots for Friday.

4.30 Pink Legend is a tricky mare to get to the bottom of. She has been beaten in handicap chases but also stepped up once of twice to win listed mares chases.

The pattern of her best form seems to be she does better on better ground after a decent break so hopefully the ground dries up for her.

She won over this course and distance last season and she had Vienna Court back in second at Huntingdon in January where her trainer could offer no explanation as to the improvement in form.

Pink Legend ran poorly the last day when she fell, but she has had a decent break since then of 30+ days plus, so I feel she can rekindle her best form and put in a career best tomorrow.

It sort of says it all that Venetia runs her in this, looking at the horses profile.

There is definately some talent or untapped potential there and I just think that before anyone calls the men in white coats for me, that with the eight runners, she is worthy of an each bet at around 66/1. I would be delighted if she finishes in the first three.

5.30 Gordon Elliot has a load of runners in this and one horse now totally overlooked in the betting is Perfect Attitude.

This horse has only been seen on the track a few times in maiden and novice hurdles, placing once or twice.

He runs here after a three month absense where you'd hope he has improved at home for his first start in a handicap. I think it's a very open race and Perfect Attitude is a very interesting horse to be sending off at such big prices in his first start in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 135.

Good luck all tomorrow.
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I always look at Venitias in the plate but this year she didnt have a runner but Pink legend was entered so I will be doing this ew as well marb.
 
Oh that's interesting thanks for that matey.

I think she could run a career best. Lets hope there are eight runners by race time tomorrow!
 
EARLOFTHECOTSWALDS 40/1 m.pipe

There are probably better hcapped runners and got only knows which of the irish runners to pick but NTD seems to have been protecting its mark.won 2 before finishing 6th over christmas behind Marie's rock,well beat but was giving MR weight.
Has run on the flat the last 4 times inc winning 6 days ago.
I havent a clue really but I like the price.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Bua Boy (not given a hard time on his last run) at 50/1; and Cormier (won the Moorestyle last run) at 33/1. Both in the Coral Cup, and both from “that” Greatwood. My Mate Mozzie at 20s too; very well regarded earlier this season.
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You have missed an interesting one Len.
JESSE EVANS 22/1 was favourite for the greatwood.
 
Going for the jugular

County hurdle
FLEET STREET 18/1
BROOMFIELD BURG 25/1
BUA BOY 66/1
JESSIE EVANS 22/1

M.PIPE
EARLOFTHECOTSWALDS 40/1
SILVER SHEEN 66/1
AU FLEURO 25/1
LANGER DAN 5/1

16 X 50P EW DBLES
 
Outsider said:
Going for the jugular

County hurdle
FLEET STREET 18/1
BROOMFIELD BURG 25/1
BUA BOY 66/1
JESSIE EVANS 22/1

M.PIPE
EARLOFTHECOTSWALDS 40/1
SILVER SHEEN 66/1
AU FLEURO 25/1
LANGER DAN 5/1

16 X 50P EW DBLES
Click to expand...

You've inspired me to have a final fling with a few longshot doubles in the two handicap hurdles (but I have to include Langer Dan in the closer). I think there are 80/1 shots with better chances than those odds tomorrow!
 
Are you going to put your ratings up for the 2 races.i like looking at them.please.
I love your posts because I've never found anyone that thinks like me.only I'm not so clever.
 
Felix Desjy - County - 80/1. Stable jockey on board.

Unless someone knows something I don’t, what on earth is the price? Available at 130s the win on the exchange. Absolutely bonkers.
 
County Hurdle:

[TABLE="width: 490"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]MON
166+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Eclair De Beaufeu[/TD]
[TD]J Gainford 3[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Felix Desjy[/TD]
[TD]J Kennedy[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]?
{167p nov}[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cask Mate[/TD]
[TD]Denis O'Regan[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Suprise Package[/TD]
[TD]Kevin Sexton[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tritonic[/TD]
[TD]A P Heskin[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] First Street[/TD]
[TD]N de Boinville[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] I Like To Move It[/TD]
[TD]Sam T-Davies[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Faivoir[/TD]
[TD]B Andrews[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dysart Diamond[/TD]
[TD]Jack Foley 3[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jesse Evans[/TD]
[TD]S Flanagan[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Colonel Mustard[/TD]
[TD]Conor Orr 3[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tax For Max[/TD]
[TD]Sean O'Keeffe[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]? nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broomfield Burg[/TD]
[TD]J O'Neill Jr[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Stepney Causeway[/TD]
[TD]Jack Andrews 5[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]nov
+10??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] My Mate Mozzie[/TD]
[TD]K Buckley 5[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ballyadam[/TD]
[TD]A Coleman[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Irascible[/TD]
[TD]B J Cooper[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gua Du Large[/TD]
[TD]R Blackmore[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]+p g[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bua Boy[/TD]
[TD]D G Hogan[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Call Me Lyreen[/TD]
[TD]Mr R James 7[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Farout[/TD]
[TD]Brian Hayes[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] West Cork[/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] State Man[/TD]
[TD]Paul Townend[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Top Bandit[/TD]
[TD]Davy Russell[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]++
nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cormier[/TD]
[TD]Sean Quinlan[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tempo Chapter Two[/TD]
[TD]Danny Mullins[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

To put these figures into some kind of perspective, Surprise Package is obviously rated on his Imperial Cup form and the likes of First Street and I Like To Move it on their Betfair Hurdle form, two of the better handicaps of the season, and Tritonic on his big Ascot win, another top handicap.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
County Hdle - Eclair De Beaufeu 40/1, 7 places - 6lbs clear on my figures, plus Gainford's 3lb allowance and 3lbs lower than when a close third in a very hot renewal last year. Hard to see him not on the premises again, assuming his entire season has been about getting here.
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Yet another two longshots - it's why I love these valuable handicaps, the value is sometimes too good not to punt!

The two Skelton rags, Faivoir 66/1 & Stepney Causeway 100/1, both 7pl and BOGs.

I've watched Faivoir get at least two very quiet rides this season and maybe this is the reason. Skelton had a well-backed decoy in the race a few years back and won it with Mohaayed at 33/1 under Bridget Andrews. This time, much as I fear West Cork has been kept back since the Greatwood to preserve a good mark, just as he did with Superb Story, I fancy too many others to back it. There's a bit of form in Stepney Causeway's record that has me wondering if I've undervalued the form by about 10lbs and at 100/1 I'm not about to miss out in case I'm right! And maybe they're trying to give Jack Andrews a festival winner. I have a quiet admiration for outfits that look after their own.
 
I've laid off most of the win portions of my Royale Pagaille bets. I'd have needed to deposit a wee bit to cover the bets in full and I couldn't be arsed to do that. I was never confident about the horse winning the race, just that it could be in the mix at least for the places. The place portions at 12.5/1 and 8.25/1 are fair enough for one that's currently 14/1 in the win market so discretion has got the better part of valour.

That said, Venetia was sounding quietly confident that the horse would run its race in her interview yesterday after the Kim Muir. She seemed pretty sure that he's a better horse this year.
 
Re the Martin Pipe, I didn't do ratings for it. This is what I wrote:

I gave up on this race because the ratings are so modest and they’re probably all a bunch of bandits. However, I will be backing Langer Dan to decent money. I remembered last night how over-confidently he was ridden last year only to bump into Galopin Du Champs and it looks like the aim since then has been to preserve his mark. Unless there’s another GDC in the race he looks a solid bet. I’ll probably stick on another two or three based on gut instinct.


The outsiders I've taken in the ew doubles with the County rags are:

Cobblers Dream
Decimation
Earlofthecotswolds
Quinta Do Mar
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yet another two longshots - it's why I love these valuable handicaps, the value is sometimes too good not to punt!

The two Skelton rags, Faivoir 66/1 & Stepney Causeway 100/1, both 7pl and BOGs.

I've watched Faivoir get at least two very quiet rides this season and maybe this is the reason. Skelton had a well-backed decoy in the race a few years back and won it with Mohaayed at 33/1 under Bridget Andrews. This time, much as I fear West Cork has been kept back since the Greatwood to preserve a good mark, just as he did with Superb Story, I fancy too many others to back it. There's a bit of form in Stepney Causeway's record that has me wondering if I've undervalued the form by about 10lbs and at 100/1 I'm not about to miss out in case I'm right! And maybe they're trying to give Jack Andrews a festival winner. I have a quiet admiration for outfits that look after their own.
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I amaze myself sometimes,how on earth did I not spot those two of Skelton's
I've took 50s Favoir and 100 ew and 130 win SC on the machine.
I'm glad you were more alert than me.
 
I think (probably wishfully) Faivoir has a big one in him and have followed you in at 50s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Lord Schnitzel 40s in the Foxhunters. Mixed it with good types as a novice chaser. Looked a likely one for a good handicap but never happened. 9yo sweetened up. Doing well in ptps and won his hunter chase in Limerick. Should be a 14s shot ish. Paddys 20s is closer to the mark.
 
HawkWing said:
Lord Schnitzel 40s in the Foxhunters. Mixed it with good types as a novice chaser. Looked a likely one for a good handicap but never happened. 9yo sweetened up. Doing well in ptps and won his hunter chase in Limerick. Should be a 14s shot ish. Paddys 20s is closer to the mark.
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Totally off my radar, HW, but following you in blind assuming you're not [blind].
 
They are hunters after all and gun to head, i'd probably have Billaway to win, but price doesnt reflect chances.
 
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