The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
2000 Guineas - Wexford Native 25/1 - I've no idea if the plan is to run but if it does I can't see it being this price, even with Native Trail in the race. Unraced at two, it came out and won a wee race at Navan but beat an AOB favourite despite running quite green in what looked a strongly run event. I suppose there's a chance it will go for the Irish Guineas instead (maybe to steer clear of NT) and it also holds a Derby entry (by Teofilo).
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Runs today in the Irish 2000G, available at 33/1.

(I've also taken 11/1 ew without the favourite but doesn't qualify for the thread.)
 
Malex - 3.20 Curragh (125/1)
Obviously has a lot to find, but surprised to see him quite such a big price. Wasn't suited by the way the race was run last tine out and should find this more to his liking. Not many genuine milers in the race and most will be stepping up in trip sooner rather than later. Decent run on debut where he had Boundless Ocean and Ivy League in behind. I don't really like the fact that they have reached for the headgear already but trainer says he has been working well in them and they have sharpened him up. Has been friendless in the market, having been around 66/1 last night, but I can see him running well. Bet365 even go 29/1 to 5 places, with just the 8 runners.
 
Mega weekend for Knockeen
I recommend each way doubles and an each way treble

Jason The Militant
Mosala
Star Girl Ammal.
 
Truncheon said:
Mondammej- 3.45 Haydock e.w @ 50/1

Will like the fast pace, the track, this isn't the strongest renewal for a G2 and i think he's overpriced
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Nice hit, and well done! Can't remember if I placed it late last night or early morning, but was 80-1 EW 4 places on BF sportsbook. Buggers limited my stake though :-(
 
chaumi said:
Nice hit, and well done! Can't remember if I placed it late last night or early morning, but was 80-1 EW 4 places on BF sportsbook. Buggers limited my stake though :-(
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Yeah i got 4 places as well so decent return, he would have gone closer on quicker ground i think
 
Desert Orchid said:
Victoria Cup - Gioia Cieca 40/1, 8 places - Dalgleish is a good target trainer, his horses often run well in the top handicaps and on my figures this one has the overall profile of an improver and would only have to find three or four pounds to have a winning chance. Available at 50s to fewer places.
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Hit the front two out that day before dropping back again and reappears over a mile at York today (5.05). This is a much lesser race and the horse is maybe under-exposed at this mile trip. On breeding he should get it comfortably. I should stress that I haven't studied the race and this is just following the logic that if I was prepared to back it in a race like the Victoria Cup then I should be prepared to back it off a lower (1lb) mark in a less difficult race. I've taken 28/1 to 6 places.
 
4.25 Fakenham
Ornua 20/1 Bet365
Showed some signs a spark was still there last time and might just be up to winning this off 127. Worth a free fiver to find out


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Desert Orchid said:
Hit the front two out that day before dropping back again and reappears over a mile at York today (5.05). This is a much lesser race and the horse is maybe under-exposed at this mile trip. On breeding he should get it comfortably. I should stress that I haven't studied the race and this is just following the logic that if I was prepared to back it in a race like the Victoria Cup then I should be prepared to back it off a lower (1lb) mark in a less difficult race. I've taken 28/1 to 6 places.
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Claims look sound, don't they. The post-debut Newcastle 7f performance suggests the mile shouldn't be a problem. I'm a little worried about the big field factor, having dropped out both times so far in similar sized fields. 2 races is limited evidence, though, and they were both highly competitive. The prospects of keeping going in this look far stronger.

But I will take you on, Desert..............

InternationalDream 33 B3 (and strong chances of getting double that on the exchange)

This one can often run prominently same as GC, and likewise first go at a mile. But I like the way he came from the back in the July 7f race at Doncaster last year. Looked to be closing at the finish, no obvious signs of stopping, and another furlong suggests he would have been closer to the winner. Chances are the same happens here, with GC and one or two others from low draws prominent, and the higher draws coming from behind. Hanagan may well ride to get the mile (given the high draw might mean using too much to get prominent early), although he kept Gabrial the Wire fairly prominent in a similar York mile handicap last June (did me a favour, so maybe I'm biased).

I have a healthy regard for the chances of Mostawaa, with form that ties in with the likes of Brunch. If the high draws are not inconvenienced, there are very strong arguments based on last seasons early races that De Sousa can get Mostawaa home in front. Seems a regular prominent runner though, and no obvious evidence he can come from behind if he needs to.
 
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Irish 1000G - Freedom Of Speech 125/1, 4 places - this is the rank outsider of the field and has it all to do on the figures but I'm loath completely to dismiss a Bolger/Manning running in a Classic. The trainer doesn't strike me as the type to waste the missus's money. I imagine the filly might be ridden to pick up scraps and can't rule out a minor placing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish 1000G - Freedom Of Speech 125/1, 4 places - this is the rank outsider of the field and has it all to do on the figures but I'm loath completely to dismiss a Bolger/Manning running in a Classic. The trainer doesn't strike me as the type to waste the missus's money. I imagine the filly might be ridden to pick up scraps and can't rule out a minor placing.
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Sire Australia has the likes of Order of Australia, Broome, Bangkok and others in his line. Dam Vocal Nation didn't do a lot but her sire Vocalised was no slouch, winning a couple of Group 3s. Bolger owned Vocalised (ridden by Manning in all races). I'm guessing he still owns Vocal Nation. I don't know enough about dam values to know if a good run in a Group race by an offspring increases breeding value, I'm guessing it does.

Comment after 1st (win) race win last year "The plan now would be to move her up to Listed company and she’ll want a step up in trip as well. She’s very much a filly for next year.”

Looked a good run against Mother Earth back in April over a mile. Just looked a little inexperienced and wavered about a bit to my eye there, and did the same in the Gowran race just over a couple of weeks ago over nigh on an extra couple of furlongs. Maybe a little better ground will help, and it's interesting they drop back to a mile. There's a good argument that Mother Earth form looks promising, if you base it on her exploits at 3 (and they were OK to take on Baaeed last week).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
[Gioia Cieca] Hit the front two out that day before dropping back again and reappears over a mile at York today (5.05). This is a much lesser race and the horse is maybe under-exposed at this mile trip. On breeding he should get it comfortably. I should stress that I haven't studied the race and this is just following the logic that if I was prepared to back it in a race like the Victoria Cup then I should be prepared to back it off a lower (1lb) mark in a less difficult race. I've taken 28/1 to 6 places.
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Never put in the race.

I want to see the race again (I watched with the sound off s Mrs O was watching TV) because there was one wearing red colours that was a complete non-trier, the jockey almost standing in the stirrups to administer exaggerated fresh-air swipes of the whip. Might have been Devilwala or the Global horse.
 
Another poke at the Derby:

Buckaroo 66/1 - I'm pretty sure this was only about 20/1 on Saturday but his defeat in the Irish Guineas has seen him pushed out. I wonder if it's an over-reaction as the horse came back with a minor injury. I suppose that means it might not run, which is always the risk, but he was previously in front of Wexford Native which was fourth the other day. Had he finished four lengths in front of the Bolger horse the other day I don't think the price would have contracted and on breeding he looks likely to improve for stepping up in trip.
 
swedishchef said:
Beverley 3.40 Freddie Robinson 25/1 - A reproduction of his form in his first two 2yo races would see him go close.
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A fairly bullish but equally non-committal quote from Ellison before the first run last year...............

"We’ve got a handful of nice-looking juveniles in and the best of the bunch could be FREDDY ROBINSON who is named after my grandson. He’s a nice horse. He’s a colt by Adaay and he’s showing all the right signs so we’ll see how he goes. He might be one more for six or seven furlongs and we could start him over six at Pontefract this week but I’ll also consider Beverley on Saturday too as running over five on soft ground is an option too. "

The Adaay connection is interesting to me. fwiw Cam Hardie has had a lot of rides for Ellison but not the winner ratio you might have hoped for, although you could argue he seems to be improving as a jockey (with increasing experience).
 
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swedishchef said:
Beverley 3.40 Freddie Robinson 25/1 - A reproduction of his form in his first two 2yo races would see him go close.
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For info, was well up in the mid-high 40s and maybe even into the 50s BF the last time I looked while they were still inspecting the course. Suggests wouldn't have been ready today. Hopefully, by the next run, Ellison will be back to giving out runner updates.
 
TheFlyingGinger 2.50 Rip 40 B365

I can't judge the pace of that York race last year. So, did they just give TFG too much rope off a slow pace?

There's a chance similar could happen here, with the majority looking like they prefer to come from behind. In fact, the only obvious other front runner is Forest Falcon.

You'd think there is a chance they'll take each other on and both die a death from it in the last furlong. But there is some evidence that TFG may be able to sit in second and show the greater guts at the end, provided both don't over-exert.

40-1 seems too big. TFG has been unfancied before and come good. Some improvement from last year may be enough. Roger Fell has had a couple of other biggish priced winners recently. Going back in fairly recent history, jockey seems capable of riding a race from the front to some effect.

I don't know if the Hammond horse will throw a spanner in the works, go off like a rocket, and try to grind it out (2 mile bumper winner, and think they are lining it up for a summer York race)
 
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Saturday, Haydock 2.20 - Kelly's Dino 25/1, 4pl - hasn't run for two years so the risks are obvious but he is very well handicapped on his best form. I'm trying to get into the trainer's head with this one. The stable is in incredible form so now might be the time to strike and I think sometimes first time up after an absence is the time to catch this type. The horse was on an upward curve five runs (but three years) ago and two seasons ago on his seasonal debut he was a close runner-up in a decent race at Deauville before being off for a while and disappointing on his reappearance. He's been off since then and has obviously had his problems so if they think they've got him back in some sort of form maybe now is the time to take advantage before the stable form wears off, assuming it will at some point. At the price and 5lbs lower than for that win five runs ago, it's a risk I'm happy to take with the extra place. Sky are offering the fifth place to 20/1.
 
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