The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

Thursday 3.35 - Yibir 6/4 - This looks between the top two in my ratings table and they look some way clear of the rest. On best odds, Mostahdaf holds marginal favouritism over Yibir at 11/8 and 6/4 respectively and that seems wrong [on my figures] so the latter is arguably a bit of value at the price. They both hold King George entries. In what is effectively a match race, Yibir probably should be favourite and probably odds on. I reckon they’d be 4/5 (Yibir) and 5/6 in that scenario. I'm happy to indulge myself at the 6/4.
 
Euronymous said:
Is Yibir the same horse this year? Have my doubts.
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Look at the ratings of those he finished among in the Sheema Classic when favourite to beat them and given too much to do. Mostahdaf could never have done that.

Beaten next time at 1/4 here but I can always forgive one bad run. Banged the gate next time and ended up going wide. He's had plenty of time to recover and I'll be very disappointed if he can't take care of this field with ease.
 
Maybe not, I have no interest in Meydan form though. Mostahdaf ran really well in the Hardwicke despite a careful ride from Crowley and I consider him a more likely winner of this. It's not a betting race though.
 
Tomorrow, Newmarket 4.10 - Mighty Ulysses 6/4 - I've been waiting for nearly 24 hours for more bookies to price up this race but they seem very reluctant. It's quite unusual for there to be no betting on a decent race at this stage. However, Hills have been going 6/4 since yesterday and I presume punters are waiting to see if anyone goes longer. I've decided not to wait. This is a Listed race and, for me, he'd have won the SJP under a better ride but he was held up too far for my liking, was a bit too keen early and had to make his move while the others were in full flight. I'm not saying he is a better horse than Coroebus or the other principals, just that he didn't get the best ride and wasn't beaten far. I'm not sure any of the rest of this field would get close in a decent G1. I reckon he's a good 7lbs better than anything in this field and should be closer to 4/6.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday 3.35 - Yibir 6/4 - This looks between the top two in my ratings table and they look some way clear of the rest. On best odds, Mostahdaf holds marginal favouritism over Yibir at 11/8 and 6/4 respectively and that seems wrong [on my figures] so the latter is arguably a bit of value at the price. They both hold King George entries. In what is effectively a match race, Yibir probably should be favourite and probably odds on. I reckon they’d be 4/5 (Yibir) and 5/6 in that scenario. I'm happy to indulge myself at the 6/4.
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Both scratched from the KG at today's forfeit stage. Godolphin won't have a runner unless they decide on a late supplement.
 
AOB scares the life out of the bookies which can sometimes work in your favour.

I think today is one of those times as he shores up the price on Persian Force.

He's a lot better than he showed at Royal Ascot and in my opinion looks head and shoulders above this lot and should be 4/5 or less.

Persian Force 5star***** bet 13/8.

With Deductions for non runner it's now Persian Force 5star***** bet 8/13.:(
 
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Yibir is a lay in my opinion -he was brilliant when ridden from the back in two American victories last Autumn but hasn't looked like the same horse since.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tomorrow, Newmarket 4.10 - Mighty Ulysses 6/4 - I've been waiting for nearly 24 hours for more bookies to price up this race but they seem very reluctant. It's quite unusual for there to be no betting on a decent race at this stage. However, Hills have been going 6/4 since yesterday and I presume punters are waiting to see if anyone goes longer. I've decided not to wait. This is a Listed race and, for me, he'd have won the SJP under a better ride but he was held up too far for my liking, was a bit too keen early and had to make his move while the others were in full flight. I'm not saying he is a better horse than Coroebus or the other principals, just that he didn't get the best ride and wasn't beaten far. I'm not sure any of the rest of this field would get close in a decent G1. I reckon he's a good 7lbs better than anything in this field and should be closer to 4/6.
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Now generally a fraction odds on.
 
Tanlic said:
AOB scares the life out of the bookies which can sometimes work in your favour.

I think today is one of those times as he shores up the price on Persian Force.

He's a lot better than he showed at Royal Ascot and in my opinion looks head and shoulders above this lot and should be 4/5 or less.

Persian Force 5star***** bet 13/8.

With Deductions for non runner it's now Persian Force 5star***** bet 8/13.:(
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The way he won I doubt if AOB's would have made a difference

Better than apoke in the eye witha sharp stick.:)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday 3.35 - Yibir 6/4 - This looks between the top two in my ratings table and they look some way clear of the rest. On best odds, Mostahdaf holds marginal favouritism over Yibir at 11/8 and 6/4 respectively and that seems wrong [on my figures] so the latter is arguably a bit of value at the price. ... In what is effectively a match race, Yibir probably should be favourite and probably odds on. I reckon they’d be 4/5 (Yibir) and 5/6 in that scenario. I'm happy to indulge myself at the 6/4.
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Easy enough.
 
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