The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

trefflich said:
6 30 Kilbeggan Dark Spark 11/8
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Forgot all about checking this. Too busy trying to get ahead of Wednesday's card.

I didn't go in heavily but a winner's a winner and another good 'un for the thread. You're keeping it going single-handed, trefflich. Much appreciated.

:thumbsup:
 
I put up Azure Blue last week as a much improved animal and she won as she liked at Hamilton

She heads to Ripon tonight and I have to dicpline myself not to smash her off the boards :lol:

They will be jumping out of trees to back her tonight so I would grab the 7/4 bet365 while you can.
 
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Ascot 5.35 - Changingoftheguard 13/8 - I had totally ignored this until a moment ago on the assumption that it would be odds on and hadn't checked the market. It has an 8lbs advantage on ORs and 10lbs on RPRs. At this trip that's at least five lengths and six lengths respectively. Surely Magnificent Moore can't fvck it up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 5.35 - Changingoftheguard 13/8 - I had totally ignored this until a moment ago on the assumption that it would be odds on and hadn't checked the market. It has an 8lbs advantage on ORs and 10lbs on RPRs. At this trip that's at least five lengths and six lengths respectively. Surely Magnificent Moore can't fvck it up.
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I've a problem with him. He looks very slow. Will there be any pace? Ottoman Fleet is very underrated.
 
Ascot 5.00 No Nay Nicki 40/1 - Trainer form was poor on selections last run. Ignore that run and the 2 1/4L she was btn by Maljoom giving that horse 2lb, she may be well hcpped?
 
Slim said:
I've a problem with him. He looks very slow. Will there be any pace? Ottoman Fleet is very underrated.
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He is. And he's a Sea the Stars out of a Motivator mare so the discrepancy in ratings isn't really important - this horse will only come into himself over a trip. He did really well to win over 10f the last day, esp after stumbling out of the gate. By the way how many times has that happened this year? Emily Upjohn in the Oaks, this guy.
 
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I'm on Lysander in the Edward VII. I'm not convinced by Changinofhteguard or what the Ottoman Fleet form is worth, and they both strike me as too short. 5/1 with a boost on Lysander on the other hand is much too big in what I think is a three horse race with there unlikely to be too much between them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 5.35 - Changingoftheguard 13/8 - I had totally ignored this until a moment ago on the assumption that it would be odds on and hadn't checked the market. It has an 8lbs advantage on ORs and 10lbs on RPRs. At this trip that's at least five lengths and six lengths respectively. Surely Magnificent Moore can't fvck it up.
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Didn't win like an odds-on shot but I'll take it. If he'd been beaten a short-head I'd have said Moore fvcked up the pace :lol:

Gradually clawing back those first three days' losses.
 
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Brilliant call D thanks.ive now had 2 winners this week even if I didnt find it myself.i liked your confidence.
 
Reading back through the thread I make it 15/32 to date. That must have it in a healthy profit despite some really stupid offerings on my part.

Sometimes I wonder what was I thinking...
 
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