The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
Newmarket 2.50 - Sound Of Iona 80/1, 6 places - should be no more than 20/1 on my figures.
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It's a hugely open race in which I'm happy to oppose the front three in the market (although not so confident about opposing Admiral D, it's just the price that puts me off him) and I'm mob-handed in it. Other qualifiers for the thread that I'm on are Popmaster 22/1, Count Otto 40/1 and Gis A Sub 33/1.

Also, in the 3.25 I've taken Magical Morning 40/1, 5pl, BOG. Amy Murphy has upped him in trip and his ratings are back to where they were for the Gosdens but he’s bred for this trip and it’s interesting that she’s bringing him back to it for this valuable race. Marquand probably won’t be passed fit but the fact he was booked is a positive. The horse is 7lbs lower than when winning a decent mile handicap on good ground at Doncaster last summer. At the price he’s definitely worth having onside.
 
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I keep getting suckered into these races - surely to God I can find something to get into the first 7 - Jack Channon’s horses are going really well at the moment and maybe Chairmanoftheboard 14/1 can manage it.

PS: just a comment, desert, I’m not puttting it up for the thread at that price :)
 
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Short notice but I thought I'd posted this earlier.

1.40 Raymond Tusk 20s or better if you can get it.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It's a hugely open race in which I'm happy to oppose the front three in the market (although not so confident about opposing Admiral D, it's just the price that puts me off him) and I'm mob-handed in it. Other qualifiers for the thread that I'm on are Popmaster 22/1, Count Otto 40/1 and Gis A Sub 33/1.
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Count Otto counted outo. Presumably the ground.
 
Seeing big priced horses run well in the 2000 Guineas gives me a wee bit more confidence Niomi Lapaglia can out run her odds in the big race tomorrow. Fingers crossed. She's obviously open to any amount of improvement from two to three. You can run a great race in this but still only finish fifth or sixth. Maybe just maybe a few of these peaked a little early as two year olds and will not improve as much as the betting market anticipates. Niomi has attacted a bit of support according to our beloved oddschecker so I'm hoping for a big run.
 
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Marb said:
Seeing big priced horses run well in the 2000 Guineas gives me a wee bit more confidence Niomi Lapaglia can out run her odds in the big race tomorrow. Fingers crossed. She's obviously open to any amount of improvement from two to three. You can run a great race in this but still only finish fifth or sixth. Maybe just maybe a few of these peaked a little early as two year olds and will not improve as much as the betting market anticipates. Niomi has attacted a bit of support according to our beloved oddschecker so I'm hoping for a big run.
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For similar reasons, I'm going to suggest Powerdress 50/1.
 
I've added Dance In The Grass, 200/1, 4pl, BOG. She was only 9/1 for the Rockfel and may have had an excuse. Charlie Johnston is proving more than a chip off the old man's block so I'm placing some faith in his shrewdness.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've added Dance In The Grass, 200/1, 4pl, BOG. She was only 9/1 for the Rockfel and may have had an excuse. Charlie Johnston is proving more than a chip off the old man's block so I'm placing some faith in his shrewdness.
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Sixth.

Fuxake.
 
I've just check the result and it turns out she was fifth. I'm putting her on the ones to watch thread.

Edit - I've taken her at 50s for the Oaks based on her dosage profile.
 
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Chester 3.15 - Lone Eagle 20/1 - I imagine if Dettori wasn’t suspended he’d be booked and only half the price would be on offer. The horse presumably had issues last season which curtailed his season to just three runs but he was a neck second to Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby the season before and that might be good enough to win this. It's a wee bit of a leap of faith that Beckett can get him back to form but I imagine the new owner had good reason to get involved with the horse.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Chester 3.15 - Lone Eagle 20/1 - I imagine if Dettori wasn’t suspended he’d be booked and only half the price would be on offer. The horse presumably had issues last season which curtailed his season to just three runs but he was a neck second to Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby the season before and that might be good enough to win this. It's a wee bit of a leap of faith that Beckett can get him back to form but I imagine the new owner had good reason to get involved with the horse.
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The race had a nice each way shape to it but Israr's withdrawel has messed that up.

Just the seven runners now but I am still having a stab at Sunchart each way. The racing post rightly states "Nine 2nds, including in five Listed races and a Group 3, but win record on Flat is 1-20".

So he is very much an each way horse who struggles to win and if he can give me a decent run today I'd be delighted. At 66/1 another second placing will do me nicely!
 
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Marb said:
The race had a nice each way shape to it but Israr's withdrawel has messed that up.

Just the seven runners now but I am still having a stab at Sunchart each way. The racing post rightly states "Nine 2nds, including in five Listed races and a Group 3, but win record on Flat is 1-20".

So he is very much an each way horse who struggles to win and if he can give me a decent run today I'd be delighted. At 66/1 another second placing will do me nicely!
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In that case, I'd suggest 18/1 for a top two finish with Hills is a safer and better-value bet.

£1ew at 66/1 returns £17.50 for your £2.

£2 at 18/1 for a top two finish returns £38.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Chester 3.15 - Lone Eagle 20/1 - I imagine if Dettori wasn’t suspended he’d be booked and only half the price would be on offer. The horse presumably had issues last season which curtailed his season to just three runs but he was a neck second to Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby the season before and that might be good enough to win this. It's a wee bit of a leap of faith that Beckett can get him back to form but I imagine the new owner had good reason to get involved with the horse.
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Backed into 10s and a very promising second for a nice return. Even nicer was that I took my own advice to Marb and backed him again at 4/1 (after the boost) for a top two finish to heavier money.

I only had one other bet today and got a nice return from that so all in all my spirits are lifted.

Edit. Just checked my account. It was 9/2 but with a R4 deduction (which I'll need to query since the NR was known long before I made the bet.)

Edit again! I've just noticed there was a second non-runner. I can chill again...
 
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VICTORIA CUP SATURDAY.

ACCIDENTAL AGENT 33/1
DARKNESS 33/1

It seems overall that a high numbered draw is best.AA is well drawn and well hcapped with Georgie Dobie claiming.
Although 9 now.
Darkness was 7th last year and is now 5lb lower but is drawn in 3.
 
Outsider said:
VICTORIA CUP SATURDAY.

ACCIDENTAL AGENT 33/1
DARKNESS 33/1

It seems overall that a high numbered draw is best.AA is well drawn and well hcapped with Georgie Dobie claiming.
Although 9 now.
Darkness was 7th last year and is now 5lb lower but is drawn in 3.
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I plan to have five or six against the field in the race. Accidental Agent will be one of them.
 
I could get seen by the men in the white coats for this, but I do actually think there's one at a huge price who will run well in the Chester Cup tomorrow.

Al Zaraqaan was formerly with William Haggas and Haggas did well with him early on when winning several races on the all weather.

He switched over to Archie Watsons yard where he won first time out. He then ran about 20 times between Jan 2022 and March 2023 for Watson, where he won a total of four handicap hurdles.

Bearing in mind how many runs he had in that space of time, I think a two month break or thereabouts after joining new trainer Sam England will have done him good.

Al Zaraqaan's first time out record on the flat in his career thus far is 0111. Another big factor which stands him in good stead to out run these huge odds, is that although earlier in his career, he won from held up positions on the all weather, his last few wins in handicap hurdles seem to show he now wants to be ridden up with the pace, which is no bad thing given his unfavourable draw in stall 11.

I hope Leigh Roche can get a good position early and then we'll see if this fella can out run the odds. He's rated 15lb lower on the turf than on the all weather, where he has a rating of 102, so whether he can exploit that tomorrow remains to be seen. At such a big price I will take the risk though. He could be a back to lay in running on Betfair aswell for exchange punters if he can get into a nice rhythm from somewhere near the front.
 
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Chester Cup - Law Of The Sea 25/1, 6pl - lightly raced and 12lbs lower than four runs ago after finishing a good fourth in the Queen’s Vase for Godolphin. Williams is good with these cast-offs and the booking of Norton at this course catches the eye.
 
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