The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York 2.25 - Ghathanfar 40/1, 6 places - figures near the top of my ratings table so shouldn't be anywhere near this price. I was intending to hold off until Wednesday but money has been coming for it this evening so I've felt obliged to commit while the price is still there.
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I've now also taken 22/1 (6 pl) Gulliver (and am a wee bit surprised Outsider hasn't put him up). He would need to go back up the ratings a fair bit to make the cut for the Wokingham or Stewards' Cup – 95 made it last year at Ascot but it could end up higher this time round – so he can afford to win off 92 here and is worth a pop at the price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
After-timing to a wee extent here so begging your indulgence but this one still qualifies.

Wednesday York:

1.50 La Yakel (7/2)
3.35 Novakai (7/1)

For a 35/1 double.

I got 6s x 7s last night for 55/1 and reckon the former will go off at 9/4, maybe shorter, and the latter really should be a very short favourite in my book.
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La Yakel has been scratched after coming in to 11/4 so that's fvcked up the double. I presume the ground has dried out too much for it.

I'm going to take a positive spin on it and assume it's avoided me a heavy loser. I'll now need to rethink that race.
 
Friday, Yorkshire Cup - Get Shirty, 40/1, 3 places - not too far off the top on my figures although I’m more inclined to think they’re trying to get his mark back down to 105 or below ahead of a go at a handicap at royal Ascot but a couple of bookies are going three places so it’s worth a pop to small stakes. I've no doubt it has the ability to be vying for a place but question whether that's the aim. At the price and terms I can't let it go unbacked.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Yorkshire Cup - Get Shirty, 40/1, 3 places - not too far off the top on my figures although I’m more inclined to think they’re trying to get his mark back down to 105 or below ahead of a go at a handicap at royal Ascot but a couple of bookies are going three places so it’s worth a pop to small stakes. I've no doubt it has the ability to be vying for a place but question whether that's the aim. At the price and terms I can't let it go unbacked.
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30/1 four places B365 is a serious price!
 
Cheers, BoS. It's now 33/1 four places, which I've taken, as well as 13/2 a top three finish.

I still reckon today is about getting his mark down but happy to hope for more than that.
 
Better than a slap on the face with a wet fish :thumbsup:

As I suspected, Get Shirty was all about another day despite being as short as 25/1 nearer the off.
 
Newbury 4.10 - Dawn Of Liberation 25/1, 4 pl - I came on to put it up 28s (which I took at tea-time) but on double-checking the place terms saw it was blue and 25s tops.
 
I usually back Heather Main’s runners. Did I back todays huge priced winner? Of course not.
 
I'm pretty gutted I never got Heather's up on here. Sorry, everyone. Doing a course and time is a challenge.


For the future. Watch out for the 2nd or 3rd run for a two-year-old. And for Zoulu.....there was a kind of pointer...he's the only 2-yo she's got entered up in the valuable races later in the season. Sometimes reading between the lines pays off, but there are plenty of times it doesn't!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Non-runner.
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But one to watch for probably, under appropriate conditions...


"He didn’t like the soft ground at Newmarket last time, but I had to get a run into him, so I’d ignore that and he’ll be much more at home on this better surface. The drop back to a mile is a plus"
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lingfield Oaks Trial - Climate Friendly 125/1 - the trainer is more than capable of producing a longshot to win a good race when all hope seems lost. More a leap of faith in the trainer than anything else and no serious expectations but no harm throwing some sweetie money at it.
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This won yesterday at 12/1.

I never knew it was running.
 
Saturday, Haydock 3.30 - Annaf 25/1, 5 places (Sky) - near the top of my ratings with - overall - a very progressive profile. Worth a serious pop in a race in which the fav is worth taking on, imo.
 
Two qualifiers in the 2.40 at York:

Zarzyni 20/1 & Sound Of Iona 25/1

(I also plan to back them in combo fcs/tcs with the main bet Mondammej obv to small stakes.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two qualifiers in the 2.40 at York:

Zarzyni 20/1 & Sound Of Iona 25/1

(I also plan to back them in combo fcs/tcs with the main bet Mondammej obv to small stakes.)
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I thought I had backed SOI last night but I hadnt and now blue across the board.as low as 11s betfair.
Anyway I will take you on with BURNING CASH 20/1
Finished 4th in the flying chillers as a 2 yr old and went up 23lb for it to 103.now down to 90 and caught my eye last year.
 
Haydock 1.50 - Reshoun 25/1, 3pl, BOG - I tried to be a wee bit smart with this one. It was 33/1 on Thursday when I did the race and I decided to wait until this morning for it to drift a fair bit, as it had done at Chester when it went off at 100/1 and was tailed off. I was hoping for at least 40s, which I think it touched in places yesterday evening, maybe even 50s or 66s but it looks like someone of influence has put it up and it has gone blue across the board so I've taken a small bet at the 25s. Formerly with Ian Williams, who trains the favourite which I'd mentioned on this thread for Chester and which was unlucky there, I don't really expect too much, to be honest, but the price is too long if it retains its ability.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two qualifiers in the 2.40 at York:

Zarzyni 20/1 & Sound Of Iona 25/1

(I also plan to back them in combo fcs/tcs with the main bet Mondammej obv to small stakes.)
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As outsider said, plenty for SOI yesterday and Zarzyni is blue this morning. The odds against the forecasts and tricasts will have shortened a lot with Mondammej (I got 8s on Thursday) also shaved yesterday. I feel robbed before the race has even begun :lol:
 
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