The 2023 Longshot Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
There looks to be several opportunities for a 20/1 plus winner tomorrow. As always it's a case of trying to find the right one. It's far from easy but I will have a go at two for tomorrow.

2.20 Tritonic is a horse I remember for winning what used to be called the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot about 15 months ago from a handicap mark of 141. He lost his form after that. His overall profile shows he is very much a horse who comes in and out of form, so his last effort when fifth in the Morebattle Hurdle was very encouraging.

That run hinted he could be coming right back to form again and now dropped to a mark in the mid 130's, I reckon he is worth a sporting each way bet here.

4.40 Despite some good looking horses at the top of the market this is quite an open looking race. I backed Stay Away Fay earlier in the year only to back something else in the Albert Bartlett, so not for the first time in 20 + years of following horse racing I was proper kicking myself after Cheltenham. Anyway, I just wonder if Stay Away Fay can repeat the form tomorrow.

Maybe it can but at the likely odds, I am looking elsewhere for something that has had an easier campaign this season.
I suppose using the 'has a nice name formula' I should back Marble Sands, but he is another one who may have had a too hard race at the Cheltenham Festival.

The horse I like at a really juicy price is Mofasa. Mofasa got beat at 4/9 on Fighting Fifth day at Newcastle where he didn't look on his game at all. He ran really well next time though after a short break, when a staying on third at Cheltenham, so I reckon he is coming in to this race in his best form with some improvement yet to come. I reckon he can handle the likely faster pace and step up in grade from his last race well.
 
Last edited:
TOPHAM TROPHY.

FANTASTIC LADY 40/1
Last year Peter Bowen had 2 in this,one ridden by Sean,the winner and one ridden by B.Powell instead of James who was claimed by Hendo to ride Fantastic Lady but he fell off at the first.
This race as been the plan since, ( I read somewhere) and Nico takes over tomorrow.
 
Outsider said:
TOPHAM TROPHY.

FANTASTIC LADY 40/1
Last year Peter Bowen had 2 in this,one ridden by Sean,the winner and one ridden by B.Powell instead of James who was claimed by Hendo to ride Fantastic Lady but he fell off at the first.
This race as been the plan since, ( I read somewhere) and Nico takes over tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Oh the pain.
 
Yeah cracking run from her, well done Outsider.

I liked her earlier in the season before she ran a bit below par at Cheltenham. I wasn't sure how she'd handle the fences today either but she ran really well.
 
Last edited:
Edit

Three for the Scottish National this weekend. I haven't backed either since I'm holding off for the final decs but I have Cap Du Nord (25/1) and Lord Accord (33/1) down as potential bets.

I have taken 66/1 Domaine De L'Isle, though.
 
Last edited:
Magna Sam at 20/1 with Ladbrokes (boosted to 22/1 5 places) looks a decent bet. He’ll race from 3lb wrong if Dusart stands his ground (assuming he gets in still needs a couple to come out I think) but I felt he looked value for more than the 5lb he got for winning at Musselburgh. Presumably kept for this race since then and a nice boost for the form with Captain Cattistock winning today


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Newbury 2.05 - This in open looking Fred Darling where the Gosdens third string Fully Wet E/W has been overlooked in the betting and freely available at 25/1. She won first time out when running green last season as a two year old, then won again from a 100 or so day break. So if you like horses who have previously won first time out or after a break Fully Wet ticks that box. A few of the others have also won first time out but this is not the only reason I like Fully Wet.

She was beaten five lengths by Magical Sunset who is one of the favourites here, but 6 or 7 months can be a long time for horses to develop and progress from two to three years old, and therefore I would argue Fully Wet is actually a bit too big a price in relation to Magical Sunset.The market has priced this up as if the form will definately be maintained tomorrow but it might not be as clear cut at that. Fully Wet pulled hard that day so I am hoping she has learnt to settle as she could improve a lot if she does. It's an open race so I will take my chance each way. See how I go.
 
Last edited:
Punchestown 4.15 - Jody Ted 28/1 - Backed from 33s early into single figures at the DRF and possibly held on to for this.
 
Bet365 - Broken Halo 25/1, 6 places. He might just have been very cleverly campaigned by taking uncompetitive races for military monkey jockeys, meaning the handicapper hasn’t taken the form too seriously but his last three runs have been at this track.
 
Sandown 1.05 Tapley can prove he has some untapped potential and hopefully give me a right good run for my money from the front. He has shown enough in some novice and maiden hurdles to make me think that now after a two month absence off the track that he may have been laid out for this race for a while. He's too big a price.
 
Last edited:
Ascot 3.15 - Nate The Great 40/1 - only two places on offer but I have a much higher opinion of this one than the market, obviously. David Probert goes to Kempton this evening for a decent book of mounts but Buick is hardly a duff sub in the saddle. Fun stakes only, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 3.15 - Nate The Great 40/1 - only two places on offer but I have a much higher opinion of this one than the market, obviously. David Probert goes to Kempton this evening for a decent book of mounts but Buick is hardly a duff sub in the saddle. Fun stakes only, though.
Click to expand...
33/1 3 places with Ladbrokes price boost, 28/1 3 places without boost
 
I would normally back Nate the Great but can’t back him against my beloved Wise Eagle ( what a great bit of placing that is by the Nicols). Guaranteed prize money of some sort. Dread to think what it will do to his handicap rating though. I assume he needs to be totally tailed off.
 
Oh my life! They must have heard me shouting at Ascot!!
It’s not even his best trip!!!
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 3.15 - Nate The Great 40/1 - only two places on offer but I have a much higher opinion of this one than the market, obviously. David Probert goes to Kempton this evening for a decent book of mounts but Buick is hardly a duff sub in the saddle. Fun stakes only, though.
Click to expand...

Market said it. SP 50/1 and well beaten.
 
Derby - Silver Knott 20/1 - has emerged as Godolphin's apparent #1 hope for the Guineas but is bred for middle distances. He just needs to run well tomorrow to see his price shorten for Epsom.
 
I liked Princess Shabnam after she beat one of the favs last season for the 6F fillies and mares race at Newmarket tomorrow, Gale Force Maya. She really lost her way after that. The only thing I can see is perhaps the season she had caught up with her.

I will keep her on side tomorrow each way, just in case she can come back to form. It's always a dodgy business backing horses with her recent form figures, but her best form is decent and also from up on the pace, so I should know my fate pretty early on here.

I am hoping she gets out quick and if she's up there for the early part of the race maybe she can out run the odds. It would just be nice to see her return to her best form. She must be better than what she showed end of last season and first run this season.

I note there was a near 2 month gap between her win last August and her next run in early October, which is a long break for a sprinter. I wonder if she had a setback. Anyhow, if her trainer hasn't got to the bottom of why she's lost her form after a winter off the track he probably never will. Lets see.
 
Last edited:
Thirsk 3.40 - Dark Moon Rising 25/1, 4 pl, BOG - they've got this one in here off 85 but if he's anywhere near ready to return to form in the first-time cheekpieces then he is absolutely lobbed in. All his best form bar one good run at 10f is at a mile and they put him over further in the second half of last season. I suppose he might be targeting a 10f handicap at the Dante meeting but he could go up a wee bit and still be well in. He won a £100k conditions race at Chelmsford last spring.
 
Newmarket 2.50 - Sound Of Iona 80/1, 6 places - should be no more than 20/1 on my figures.
 
ABOVE 250nm 20/1 5th in the wokingham 2 yrs ago off 100 and wknd a furlong out last year in the Buckingham palace over 7f.
Down to 87 tomorrow.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top