The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
Chester Cup - Law Of The Sea 25/1, 6pl - lightly raced and 12lbs lower than four runs ago after finishing a good fourth in the Queen’s Vase for Godolphin. Williams is good with these cast-offs and the booking of Norton at this course catches the eye.
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Out to 50s so I've gone in again.

I've also added The Grand Visir at 33/1. It's top-rated on my figures and is another Williams has taken over. I'm not sure why I overlooked it in the first place - probably looking for improvers - but I'd be kicking myself if it won and I hadn't backed it.
 
Reshoun at 80’s ticks a lot of boxes in the Cup. Other than that my other fancies are quite short.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Out to 50s so I've gone in again.

I've also added The Grand Visir at 33/1. It's top-rated on my figures and is another Williams has taken over. I'm not sure why I overlooked it in the first place - probably looking for improvers - but I'd be kicking myself if it won and I hadn't backed it.
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Good shout D.
 
Desert Orchid said:
[Law Of The Sea] Out to 50s so I've gone in again.
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Arguably a wee bit unlucky not to be closer than fourth but a decent return all in all.

Annoyingly, I never heard it mentioned until they were reviewing the finish. My mind was too much on the main bet (which ended up nowhere).
 
Shame on me for deserting Saffie who’s my favourite jockey these days. What does it say about my Wise Eagle who beat him at Musselborough?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Arguably a wee bit unlucky not to be closer than fourth but a decent return all in all.

Annoyingly, I never heard it mentioned until they were reviewing the finish. My mind was too much on the main bet (which ended up nowhere).
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Hampered after the start and no clear run final furlong, so indeed unlucky, desert.

An enquiry was held to consider interference shortly after the start involving LAW OF THE SEA, placed fourth, ridden by Franny Norton, CALLING THE WIND (IRE), placed sixth, ridden by Jamie Spencer, RAJINSKY (IRE), placed fifth, ridden by Harry Davies and CALL MY BLUFF (IRE), placed third, ridden by John Egan. The interference was found to be accidental as a free-running CALLING THE WIND (IRE) had to be checked after becoming tight for room between CALL MY BLUFF (IRE) which edged slightly left-handed and RAJINSKY (IRE) which was ridden aggressively to maintain its rails pitch and as a result LAW OF THE SEA which was following CALLING THE WIND (IRE) was badly hampered.

Following the race, Billy Loughnane reported that BASCULE (FR), placed eighth, jumped left-handed from the stalls and Franny Norton reported that LAW OF THE SEA, placed fourth, was denied a clear run inside the final furlong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Chester Cup - Law Of The Sea 25/1, 6pl - lightly raced and 12lbs lower than four runs ago after finishing a good fourth in the Queen’s Vase for Godolphin. Williams is good with these cast-offs and the booking of Norton at this course catches the eye.
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Ian Williams won the consolation race 33/1.
 
Haydock 1.35 - Shantou Express 66/1 generally (80s in a couple of places but they won't let me bet what I want) - the claimer has had six wins and three other places from just 17 rides for the trainer. The horse’s best form in the last year was in May/June on good ground over a trip and one of them was off 133. He's off 125 here before considering the claim.
 
2.40 Ascot- Rhoscolyn

I think O'Meara has been jobbing this, he's dropped down the weights, ground and trip is optimum, Fallon has rode it twice before

25/1 7 places Skybet
 
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Desert Orchid said:
For the same owner as LOTS.

That would have been one helluva double, assuming they'd backed it.
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Going to keep an eye on those owners! They’ve got a runner at Southwell on Monday: Patagonia. I had a last minute bet on the winner in the consolation race. I’ve just checked to see if it had turned blue on oddschecker as I look out for Williams horses that are being backed, but it hadn’t gone blue. I think I backed it because I saw that he’d pulled a couple of horses out of the race and thought there must be a good reason for keeping the others in. Both horses were recent purchases.Law of the Sea was bred by Kirsten Rausling and her horses tend to like a bit of cut in the ground. I’m intrigued.
 
Truncheon said:
2.40 Ascot- Rhoscolyn

I think O'Meara has been jobbing this, he's dropped down the weights, ground and trip is optimum, Fallon has rode it twice before

25/1 7 places Skybet
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Definitely a winner in waiting but I know this race is worth 50 grand but there are better races in the future.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 1.35 - Shantou Express 66/1 generally (80s in a couple of places but they won't let me bet what I want) - the claimer has had six wins and three other places from just 17 rides for the trainer. The horse’s best form in the last year was in May/June on good ground over a trip and one of them was off 133. He's off 125 here before considering the claim.
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I’m with you on this one. Only 40/1 now but 6 places with SkyBet


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I've just realised a horse I think has potential Bold Endeavour runs in this. 9/1 seems fair to me for a sporting bet.
 
Lingfield Oaks Trial - Climate Friendly 125/1 - the trainer is more than capable of producing a longshot to win a good race when all hope seems lost. More a leap of faith in the trainer than anything else and no serious expectations but no harm throwing some sweetie money at it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lingfield Oaks Trial - Climate Friendly 125/1 - the trainer is more than capable of producing a longshot to win a good race when all hope seems lost. More a leap of faith in the trainer than anything else and no serious expectations but no harm throwing some sweetie money at it.
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Nibbled into 66/1 and only beaten six lengths or so. Fair to say it outran its odds.
 
Wednesday, York 2.25 - Ghathanfar 40/1, 6 places - figures near the top of my ratings table so shouldn't be anywhere near this price. I was intending to hold off until Wednesday but money has been coming for it this evening so I've felt obliged to commit while the price is still there.
 
After-timing to a wee extent here so begging your indulgence but this one still qualifies.

Wednesday York:

1.50 La Yakel (7/2)
3.35 Novakai (7/1)

For a 35/1 double.

I got 6s x 7s last night for 55/1 and reckon the former will go off at 9/4, maybe shorter, and the latter really should be a very short favourite in my book.
 
Thursday, York 3.00 - Rise Hall 66/1, 6 places - He ran very well on his only run the spring before last in the Lincoln Trial but finished lame, has been off since and the handicapper has allowed him a bit extra for his extended absence. His trainer is no mug.

In the same race, Symbol Of Light 22/1 - has a highly progressive profile on the all-weather and is lightly enough raced to continue on a steep curve. I can’t fathom why it should be 22/1, other than its being a Godolphin cast-off, and the trainer is in form. This one has to be the main bet.
 
Thursday, York 3.35 - Dancing Magic 28/1, 4 places - bred for 12f+ but unraced beyond a mile and looks overpriced compared to plenty in the field.
 
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