The 2023 Longshot Thread

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moehat said:
Trouble is he’s running against my beloved Okovango Delta. Also in the race, is it unusual for Sophie Leech to take horses that far north? She’s quite a canny trainer. I wish I was going to Kelso today: it’s a cracking card.
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Not now. Both CT and OD have been taken out.

I usually take it as a positive that I've saved money on a potential loser when they're taken out late.
 
Kelso 3.35 - Big River 22/1, 4 pl - well handicapped again and loves the track. Not my main bet in the race (that's stablemate Mighty Thunder) but certainly worth a pop.
 
I’ve realised that, not only do I get Darryl Holland mixed up with Daryl Jacob but I also get Big River and Mighty Thunder mixed up: both being being cliff horses of mine ( or, in my head, cliff horse).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kelso 1.50 - Curious Times 33/1, 4 pl BOG (B365) - looks like he’s been kept for this since winning his qualifier back in September off 3lbs higher.
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Race won by trainer whose birthday is today. Always worth noting when it’s a trainers birthday.
 
Meydan 3.10 - Vin De Garde 33/1 - fast-finishing beaten a nose in this race last year. Price is wrong.
 
There’s no point in Ken Pitterson on WHill giving his paddock picks just as the race is starting. He just said he thought Get With the Times would follow the favourite home at a huge price but it was too late to put a bet on.
 
Oh heck. What did I write! Paddock pricks or something? I’m not concentrating very well today! Oh, I get it now. But Ken did advise to back an 80/1 2nd, also advising to do a forecast with the horse that won. Which, imo was pretty impressive.
 
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There were some signs last year that James Horton will be a name to watch for this season and going forward. There's a lot to like about the potential chances of Encourageable in the Lincoln with David Probert up. A glance at the formlines of many shorter in the betting suggests 33-1 B365 is a little too big, and taking a balanced view of the prices of everything in general, he looks like the most likely of the longshots to me to prove he might be able to progress. Whispers from the yard suggest he's ready to go for it.

Proven on soft ground, though if it gets heavy, that'll obviously be an unknown. Whether he can handle a frantic mile (if it is) on soft might be equally questionable.

If he bombs here, there may well be good opportunities to claw the stakes back down the line.
 
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moehat said:
Oh heck. What did I write! Paddock pricks or something? I’m not concentrating very well today! Oh, I get it now. But Ken did advise to back an 80/1 2nd, also advising to do a forecast with the horse that won. Which, imo was pretty impressive.
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Paddock prick just about sums Ken up


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Lincoln - Safe Voyage 28/1, 6pl, BOG - been busy settling into the hotel [in Spain] the last couple of days so not really keeping up too much with discussions so apologies if anyone else has put this one up.

Tons of back class, acts well in heavy, looked [relatively speaking] on the way back when slightly unlucky in the Balmoral at the back-end of last season, good jockey.

I'm leaving the draw completely out of calcs and hoping for the best.
 
Well, Ken’s just given me the winner of the first at Doncaster and paid for my Lincoln bets!
 
I've taken another wee pop at the race with Toshizou 66/1, 6 places.

It was 4/1 to win a handicap (won by Saltonstall) on latter of his two runs last season, off a six-month break so clearly more was expected off this kind of mark. He was with Joseph O'Brien at that time, whih might explain in part his price, and this is his first run for his new yard and you never really know...
 
Toshizou was my top rated horse. And going by previous races I think he’s got a good draw. Majestic came next, then Revich and Yanifer.
 
3.50 Lingfield- Phantasy Mac 50/1

Running over a more suitable trip, had 2 jobs over an unsuitable 7f, Connor Planas takes 5 off
 
Truncheon said:
3.50 Lingfield- Phantasy Mac 50/1

Running over a more suitable trip, had 2 jobs over an unsuitable 7f, Connor Planas takes 5 off
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Stable right in form, and CP has ridden a handful of those that won or finished close up. Buick with the leg up on another stable runner might be a bit of a signal...but could well be they don't know which one is the one
 
4.15 Plumpton
Effernock Fizz looks overpriced here at 20/1 so happy to punt those odds (4 places SkyBet)


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I'm not normally one for playing in Hunter Chases, but I've taken a value-based swing at one in Aintree's Thursday race over 2m5f.

Envoye Special is the selection (40/1 Ladbrokes, BOG), based on his price relative to Magic Saint.

The Nicholls horse is a 12/1 shot for this, and beat the selection 13L last time out over a similar trip (2m4f) at Wincanton. However, Envoye Special was conceding the 137-rated winner 15lbs that day, and was bang in contention until hitting 3-out and pecking after the last, before keeping-on to finish a nose third behind the 131-rated Diligent (to whom ES was conceding 7lbs). The selection has an OR of only 119.

Envoye Special was mixing it in Points and Hunter Chases at trips between 2m - 3m last season (broadly consistent throughout), before moving to Keiran Burke this season, where he's been confined to two runs at intermediate trips (easy winner fto before the Wincanton race).

Clearly, if that OR of 119 is accurate, he will be up against it, but I think that mark may be more of a reflection of how difficult a read he is; having mixed it at a variety of trips for a small yard. Certainly, if the Wincanton form can be take in any way literally, he should be much closer to Magic Saint's price, and a much shorter price than the 40/1 currently being offered.

I'm also keen to oppose anything that ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunter, and (for right-or-wrong) the Christie runner, so - unusually for me given the type of race - I've had a fair old bash at this one each way.
 
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Envoye Special was OK Pointing (he was trained by Chris Barber prior to going to Kieran Burke) But he was firmly put in his place by Magic Saint (yes who was admittedly getting a hefty weight pull but ON was on compared with James King on ES).

If you go through ES Pointing form, it’s not in the same league as some in the race (Fier Jaguen for example) and Chris Barber would tell you there’s no comparison with Famous Clermont.

That said I’ll be eating my words when he takes to the fences and the others don’t! :lol:
 
There is another small worry with that race where ES got pulled due to unsuitable ground (soft). I didn't look back but maybe that day it was really borderline heavy. It certainly looked soft enough at Ffos Las two races back when ES won in a canter and looked strong. At 40-1, in the context of prices on others, looks well worth a go to me.
 
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