The 2023 Longshot Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Adaayinourlife 8.10 Ling 50-1

A weak classified race. Lifey won a mile handicap about a year ago from the front, actually headed by two others half a furlong out and seemed set to get swamped, but showed some appetite for a fight by getting up again on the line.

Only one previous run over 1m4f at Ling in March. Again showing some battling qualities after looking set to get swamped and fade badly a furlong out, then fighting on to get beat less than two lengths.


Both those would set him up as a 'want to win' horse which should position him well against the majority of the field.

Yard seem to believe 1m6f stretched him last time and made no impact from the back.

50 4 places (with one or two) fairly well understates his chance of getting in the frame if he can be front rank a furlong out.
 
Last edited:
Given it's a Class 6, ie for horses that can't win, I reckon ratings are pretty meaningless and your approach is a sound one so I've followed you in. Top weight means he's the best of a bunch of poor horses.
 
chaumi said:
Adaayinourlife 8.10 Ling 50-1
Click to expand...


Pretty poor, as we witnessed. No obvious excuses either, yard were scratching heads after. This might be a good example of wishful thinking - The Mark Usher yard has been under a grey cloud for a while, though there did seem to be one or two runs in recent weeks that suggested things were bouncing back. It's possible that was a premature judgment, and Lifey might be worth another try to small stakes at some point given 66 will probably be the least on offer.
 
Outsider said:
4h in france today 28/1
Click to expand...
That prompted a quick look...and one of the others from Doom's first race went in at 16s recently. The 3rd, 4th, and fifth may be worth watching out for at big prices over the next few months.

Therapist Andrew Balding
Gentle Whinny Denis Coakley
Throubi (IRE) James Fanshawe


The 6th - Beautiful Star - switched yards from Hannon to DFD, so you'd think he wouldn't have let her go if she was up to C4 or higher. One day DFD might find the key in a low grade race at a good price.
 
Last edited:
chaumi said:
That prompted a quick look...and one of the others from Doom's first race went in at 16s recently. The 3rd, 4th, and fifth may be worth watching out for at big prices over the next few months.

Therapist Andrew Balding
Gentle Whinny Denis Coakley
Throubi (IRE) James Fanshawe


The 6th - Beautiful Star - switched yards from Hannon to DFD, so you'd think he wouldn't have let her go if she was up to C4 or higher. One day DFD might find the key in a low grade race at a good price.
Click to expand...

Gentle Whinny is entered at Salisbury on Tuesday (5.10), WH have her priced up at 14-1.
 
Hunt Cup - Outbreak 40/1, 5 places (PP/Betfair) - see the jousting on the other thread with Maxbet et al.
 
Saturday, York 2.35 - Snazzy Jazzy 40/1, 4pl (PP/Betfair) - was rated 107 this time two years ago and won a pot of this value this time last year off this mark (94) and was subsequently only beaten 1¾ lengths in the Buckingham Palace despite being denied a clear run as the race was coming to the boil, off 97. He isn’t entered at Ascot this time but is in the Bunbury Cup and might need to go up the weights to make the cut there. He’s probably just in decline but is palpably overpriced at 40s, which I’ve taken. The claimer might be a negative but I’m hoping the horse can just outclass this field.
 
Sandown 2.15 - Magical Morning 25/1, 4 pl - would be lobbed in on his best form for the Gosdens when he won a decent prize this time last year off 105 (96 here) but you have to wonder why either the trainers or the owner, Lady Bampot, got rid of him and his subsequent form implies there was a reason. This is his first run since a wind op and he’s blinkered for the first time so they’re maybe getting desperate with him. He holds an entry in the John Smith and would probably need a penalty to make the cut so might be worth giving one last chance.
 
Last edited:
New Definition 3.25 San 25-1 with a few, might go outwards

Looks to run some good races off a similar break to the one he'll have for this. Tom Queally rides and knows him well.

The valuable Newcastle 6f Class 2 Conditions he ran in a few months back has subsequently turned out to be hot enough. May have been inconvenienced there by running on the far outside of the field, although seemed to run on empty from a furlong out. Have a suspicion he's a 'will only show very best form on first couple of starts after a break' type (and that was his third). But we should find out for sure here.

Owl Island and Classic are unknowns, could be anything. But Ancestral Land looks like he'd like it softer, and the rest look Class 4 types and beatable. On balance, given this might be a target after the break, anything over 20-1 seems worth a few pennies.
 
Last edited:
reet hard said:
GL, Chaumi. Was tempted, but the stiff 7 could be a hill too far.
Click to expand...

Yeah, fair point, Reet. In a season stable tour, JT said they thought he'd improved for the step up to 7f, and were thinking about going for a mile. Implies they think he'll get it. But you're right, ND might just say 'you're havin' a laugh'
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 2.15 - Magical Morning 25/1, 4 pl - would be lobbed in on his best form for the Gosdens when he won a decent prize this time last year off 105 (96 here) but you have to wonder why either the trainers or the owner, Lady Bampot, got rid of him and his subsequent form implies there was a reason. This is his first run since a wind op and he’s blinkered for the first time so they’re maybe getting desperate with him. He holds an entry in the John Smith and would probably need a penalty to make the cut so might be worth giving one last chance.
Click to expand...

Autumn Festival now qualifies too so I've backed him, splitting my stake between one bookie going 33s, BOG and 4 places and Sky at SP, 5 places, in case the worrying drift continues.

The forecast with Magical Morning would be nice :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 2.15 - Magical Morning 25/1, 4 pl - would be lobbed in on his best form for the Gosdens when he won a decent prize this time last year off 105 (96 here) but you have to wonder why either the trainers or the owner, Lady Bampot, got rid of him and his subsequent form implies there was a reason. This is his first run since a wind op and he’s blinkered for the first time so they’re maybe getting desperate with him. He holds an entry in the John Smith and would probably need a penalty to make the cut so might be worth giving one last chance.
Click to expand...

Certainly looked to be trying and that's all I'll ever ask. Maybe the pace was over-strong and he was too close to it but no complaints.
 
Tuesday Ascot 5.00 - East Asia 100/1, 6 places - a very respectable runner-up at 66/1 in Meydan in an admittedly weak G3 (£89k to the winner) earlier last year but had the likes of Global Heat and Enemy behind him that day. Went up to 102 for it but was off from May and a couple of preps this spring might have him ready to outrun his odds off 10lbs lower.
 
Ocean Reach 8.05 Windsor 66-1 generally, 70s in a couple of places, can see Reachy going off 80 or 100.

Has done me a couple of favours over the years and - on old form - might run well enough here.

Came back from a long, long break last time. You'd think injury-related. But, to my eye, ran well in that comeback, fading over the last couple but with no attempt by the jockey to apply any pressure. Had the feel of a 'test the waters' comeback.

Aside from the Heather Main runner Island King (HM is on a hot run still), + the Alan King and Hughes 3 YOs, there doesn't look to be much else that obviously belongs in a higher grade, and this (likely) good ground with a bit of cut should be just about right for OR to show if she still has something.

Small stakes, obviously.

And if anyone is there, maybe they can take a quick snap for me :-) (ideally in the winners enclosure!)
 
Wednesday, Ascot 4.20 - Mostahdaf 25/1 - this is an absolutely monstrous price and I fancy he can win. Some of you may recall earlier in the season when reet and I backed one that had won a valuable handicap abroad and the form had been largely ignored. Well give yourself a little exercise and look up the ORs of the horses Mostahdaf smashed to pieces in Riyadh early this year. I'm not insisting the form be taken at face value because the ground was firm and it's possible not everything acted on it but on the bare figures the horse is clear in this race.
 
6.10 - Charging Thunder 100/1, 5 places, BOG - second top on my ratings (behind the fav) so worth a pop just in case the big V blows out for some unlikely reason. I've also taken 66/1 (win only) without Vauban and 35/1 (3 places) w/o him, but was only allowed £1.25 ew. I don't know whether to take that personally or not.
 
Not seeing why Notre Belle Bete is up in the 70s in the 5.35.

Came from the back with a threatening run against Saga and King of Conquest last time, perhaps losing a little ground when edging right but finishing as well as either. That didn't look to be tiredness to me, more like head down 'want it' effort. There's a chance if he'd have been held on to a little longer then it all may have been a lot closer.

Has pretty consistent form with some big enough names in a number of strong races, displaying versatility on straight and turning tracks, and varying ground.

Suspect that a reasonable amount of give will help and wouldn't be sure if it's GF. But there has to be some cut by now, right?
 
Not sure whether Desert Cop is up to this level (yet) in the King's Stand, but there's a less than 80 or 90-1 chance his Newcastle win is very strong form. This 5 in the softened ground might take some getting for a few, and Coppy's proven stamina could see a run into a place. Logically can't win. but the place may be enough here.

Problems at the start in a Newbury Group 3 in April may have had a negative impact, and subsequently beaten by Shaquille, who may yet turn out to be dining at the top table.

Stakes for fun, far too many dangers.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top