The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Existent 3.30 Hay 50-1 most (was 66 B3 a couple of hours ago)

Has shown a couple of times that he can run close in lower end Group company, and now aged 5 there's a chance he'll be at a peak this season. A fair number of these look beatable, and while it's hard to see a win against one or two, 50s seems worth a shot.
 
chaumi said:
Existent 3.30 Hay 50-1 most (was 66 B3 a couple of hours ago)

Has shown a couple of times that he can run close in lower end Group company, and now aged 5 there's a chance he'll be at a peak this season. A fair number of these look beatable, and while it's hard to see a win against one or two, 50s seems worth a shot.
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Good call chaumi. I had a small interest which I thought was in the place market, when I saw my balance I'd actually done it in the 4 tbp market (@ 13) :thumbsup:
 
2017diary said:
Good call chaumi. I had a small interest which I thought was in the place market, when I saw my balance I'd actually done it in the 4 tbp market (@ 13) :thumbsup:
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haha that's cool. Pretty much last 2 out, had to wait for a gap and possibly took that gap just a little bit too early. Nice run, though.
 
chaumi said:
Existent 3.30 Hay 50-1 most (was 66 B3 a couple of hours ago)

Has shown a couple of times that he can run close in lower end Group company, and now aged 5 there's a chance he'll be at a peak this season. A fair number of these look beatable, and while it's hard to see a win against one or two, 50s seems worth a shot.
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Worth a shot indeed with plenty of bookies going four places :thumbsup:
 
Darn it. Was on Faux Fur and Fort Randall in the bumper. First three: I was hoping that Fort Randall might get third. There was money going on both of them at the off. I don’t think my three pence ew was doing that.
 
If you get a move on you can get 20/1 about Tunnes in Friday's Coronation Cup with Ladbrokes, plus it's boostable (to 22/1).

Classic case of German form being under-rated in the market. I'm not saying it will win but it should be one of the favourites.
 
365 shut me down this week. I almost can't believe it. After at least 10 and maybe 15 years, all I get is a 'your account has been limited, please withdraw your funds immediately' message, and with no explanation. Checked with support, and they say they'll honour open ante-post bets, so the Soul Sister one is safe (for now). Tempted to take the cashout and at least make them pay something else as a leaving present, though the win will be more painful for them.

There's a longer range treble, too - Encourageable Hunt Cup, Asjad Wokingham, Sea King in the Plate. For enough to make them notice. If everyone has a £1 ew (I'm not recommending anyone actually do it, although they'll all have chances if they make it)...it should make the bastardos sleep a little less comfortably (for a couple of minutes/night or two, maybe!)
 
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6.20 Cartmel Acoustic 80-1 B3, 50 others

I thought Acoustic was running a good enough race at Hexham LTO for Barnsey, still moving OK after two out and showing some ability is there by taking on the principals from the outset. Made a bit of a hash at the last that day, which would have impacted the beaten distance. Had no chance against Idem and Miss Lamb there anyway, so the run was OK.

Looks set to similarly struggle to beat the top two in the market here, but Cartmel is a different test than Hexham and it's not hard to see a top three finish if he can keep going a furlong or so longer on this sharper track.

It would probably need the top two to under perform to get a win, and a poor run here might set us up for a summer handicap effort at good enough odds.

I think 50 is not quite good enough, need 66-1 minimum
 
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chaumi said:
365 shut me down this week. I almost can't believe it. After at least 10 and maybe 15 years, all I get is a 'your account has been limited, please withdraw your funds immediately' message, and with no explanation. Checked with support, and they say they'll honour open ante-post bets, so the Soul Sister one is safe (for now). Tempted to take the cashout and at least make them pay something else as a leaving present, though the win will be more painful for them.

There's a longer range treble, too - Encourageable Hunt Cup, Asjad Wokingham, Sea King in the Plate. For enough to make them notice. If everyone has a £1 ew (I'm not recommending anyone actually do it, although they'll all have chances if they make it)...it should make the bastardos sleep a little less comfortably (for a couple of minutes/night or two, maybe!)
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I can’t believe this either. Always thought Bet365 were less likely to shut people down than other books. They’re getting less generous with their offers too eg no refund of half the stake on GN each way bets, no more ITV 4/1+ free bets


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It's crazy. All I had was the Heather Main winner, Soul Sister at 100, and about half a dozen other 66-1 + shots in the frame over the last few weeks in a lucky run (that will very likely end). That wouldn't even have made a dent in their daily profits, not even noticeable. Hugely disappointed, because they do regularly go higher than others on the long shots.

Can't be anything other than they're on some sort of cost-cutting/risk-eliminating order. And yeah, the offer changes are likely another pointer.
 
Oaks - Heartache Tonight 20/1 - a half-sister to Wonderful Tonight who ended her 3yo season by winning the G1 Champion F&M race at Ascot. She worked her way through the ranks that season so I'm fascinated that connections have taken in a G2 then a G1 in France with this one ahead of a tilt at the Oaks. The trainer is no mug so I suspect that something is, like twelve inches, afoot...
 
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I'm having a go on Dear My Friend in The Derby.

I fancied him a bit for The Dante E/W but he was way too keen to do himself justice so I am putting a line through that run. Plus if he had gone close his price wouldn't be half as juicy for this.

Before York he was quite impressive at Gosforth Park when he had the consistent miler Galeron back in third.

I also think I'm right in saying there is a doubt about him staying the 1M4F trip on his pedigree, so I reckon his jockey Andrea Atzeni needs to switch him off, get him comfortable and into a rhythm, then try to finish the race off and hopefully finish in the first three of four, especially if one or two of the fancied horses do underperform.

Here's hoping anyway!
 
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On my radar as a potential longshot in the race. I'll put up my reasoning if I decide to go through with the bet. I'm hoping for 100/1 or better.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Oaks - Heartache Tonight 20/1 - a half-sister to Wonderful Tonight who ended her 3yo season by winning the G1 Champion F&M race at Ascot. She worked her way through the ranks that season so I'm fascinated that connections have taken in a G2 then a G1 in France with this one ahead of a tilt at the Oaks. The trainer is no mug so I suspect that something is, like twelve inches, afoot...
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I'm becoming resigned to the idea that the drying ground will be against this one. She's out to 33/1. I'm tempted to go in again though :ninja:
 
chaumi said:
Attractive. Going by GB's blog and a comment before the York race, the indication was the season target is the Ebor. Might not stop them winning this en route, ofc!
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Ah bugger. I remember reading that now. They wouldn't want him getting up from his current 103 but I'd say the Ebor off this mark is ambitious. Anyway, I wouldn't be confident about him at the Ebor trip even though he holds an entry for the Northumberland Plate.
 
I don't know the makeup of that Bahrain track, but doubt it's super stiff

+ it would be surprising for RB to let one go that he thought could take an Ebor
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Oaks - Heartache Tonight 20/1 - a half-sister to Wonderful Tonight who ended her 3yo season by winning the G1 Champion F&M race at Ascot. She worked her way through the ranks that season so I'm fascinated that connections have taken in a G2 then a G1 in France with this one ahead of a tilt at the Oaks. The trainer is no mug so I suspect that something is, like twelve inches, afoot...
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I've added Sea Of Roses at SP (currently up to 80/1) for the sake of four places with Sky Bet.

I can't see a genius like Balding running a no-hoper in the race.
 
Scottish Cup Final (5.30pm kick-off) - Inverness Caley Thistle to lift the trophy 25/1 (Coral)

This is basically sickness/paranoia insurance but the price does strike me as too long, even with Caley being effectively a lower division side.

I've long been of the belief that the bigger the game the more psychology plays a part in the outcome. Caley have a history of being Celtic's bogey team and even if most of our players today will never have played against Caley they'll have been made aware of the history. Caley players will also know they can be part of a major upset.

The Celtic players will also have had it well and truly drummed into them that they're not playing eleven opponents today; they're up against Caley's XI (plus the subs) AND the SFA who have ensured that the refereeing and VAR team will make life difficult.

This is the SFA line-up:

Referee: John Beaton
AR1: Graeme Stewart
AR2: Gordon Crawford
4th Official: David Dickinson
VAR: Steven McLean
AVAR: Gary Hilland
Seriously, you couldn't make this sh1t up. Every one of them known to make big calls against Celtic, either as match refs or VAR officials.

I'm very much in the Jock Stein Philosophy Camp of 'put the ball in the net often enough and there's nothing they can do' and I'd be sure Ange is a fully paid up member of the club, but this is the corrupt little masonic backwater of Scottish football where knuckle-rubbing handshakes and what school you went to are more important than fair play.

There's also the matter of the speculation surrounding the advances of Spurs towards our manager. The Scottish media, desperate for Rangers to be the big dicks up here, are hammering the narrative that Ange is on his way, the sole agenda being to unsettle the Celtic players who are claiming - as you'd expect - to be blocking out the noise but they can't unhear it.

I hope our guys go out and play with a mixture of purpose and freedom. On our game we're unbeatable [domestically] but I expect the refs to disrupt the flow, allow Caley to smash into us all over the pitch, give Caley a penalty, deny us one or two and book one or two of our guys early for minor fouls to stop them being aggressive in the press.

And we'll still win 5-0 :lol: and if Kyogo plays he'll get a hat-trick :lol:

Edit - another aspect that seems to be under the radar is that if Celtic win it will be a WORLD RECORD EIGHTH domestic treble. If people think it's no big deal, they should recall that as recently as 2015 we only had secured three trebles in the club's then 127-year history, the first two under Jock Stein, the third under Martin O'Neill. We then had a glorious spell in which we won four trebles in succession from 2016-2020. And that Man U are the only English side ever to have won the treble and only did it once, under Alex Ferguson. Man City might become only the second today.
 
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This 2.45 at Epsom - Not my kind of race but my gut is saying Swift Asset is overpriced at 20/1. Small bet.
 
This 3yo handicap at Epsom - Blue Universe 40/1, 4 places - Charlie Johnston's horse just easily won the equivalent race at Musselburgh a few minutes ago so he must fancy his pair in this. The other dimension is that the owner of that winner owns Masai Mara so that one must be fancied too since this is probably a better race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This 3yo handicap at Epsom - Blue Universe 40/1, 4 places - Charlie Johnston's horse just easily won the equivalent race at Musselburgh a few minutes ago so he must fancy his pair in this. The other dimension is that the owner of that winner owns Masai Mara so that one must be fancied too since this is probably a better race.
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Hmm... not of an inch. I could be kind and say it didn't act on the track but the exaggerated hold-up tactics wasn't a good watch.

Masai Mara looked to have difficulty with the track.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Scottish Cup Final (5.30pm kick-off) - Inverness Caley Thistle to lift the trophy 25/1 (Coral)

This is basically sickness/paranoia insurance but the price does strike me as too long, even with Caley being effectively a lower division side.
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HT Celtic one up - Kyogo, who else.

But in all honesty it's a bit of a damp squib. Not a lot of passion, not an awful lot of good football, but also not much scope for the officials to influence the game.

Celtic are very comfortable without being sparkling. But a one-goal margin is never satisfactory until the final whistle actually goes. Thistle have hardly crossed the halfway line.
 
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