The 2023 Longshot Thread

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chaumi said:
Not sure whether Desert Cop is up to this level (yet) in the King's Stand, but there's a less than 80 or 90-1 chance his Newcastle win is very strong form. This 5 in the softened ground might take some getting for a few, and Coppy's proven stamina could see a run into a place. Logically can't win. but the place may be enough here.

Problems at the start in a Newbury Group 3 in April may have had a negative impact, and subsequently beaten by Shaquille, who may yet turn out to be dining at the top table.

Stakes for fun, far too many dangers.
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DC ran on into 6th. I liked the way he was under pressure from a long way out but still kept going and didn't fold. I'd say this was a big run for a 3YO that also illustrates the performance by the winner.

'Old' Existent didn't do too badly, either. Think GF would have suited him better.
 
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Ascot, Thursday, Britannia - Carracci 20/1 - Coolmore with Moore up and one of only two runners with a Group race entry, in his case G2 (the other is G3). His two modest runs this season are presumably about preserving a winning mark.

The other is Mustajaab 40/1, which I've also taken. He didn't run badly for a 50/1 shot in the Mill Reef and needed to win last time to make the cut. I don't fancy his draw (30) but if he's thought up to running in a G3 he's probably at least a 100 horse running off 89.
 
Ascot, Thursday 5.35 - Tony Montana 33/1, 4 places - bred in the purple and likely to be a big improver this season. On his debut last season he split two horses now rated in the high 90s and the winner is only 6/1 for the Ribblesdale. The Gosdens have two others in the race and I wouldn't be surprised if this one is the pick and one of them is 5/1 fav.
 
3.40 - Potapova 20/1 - I've always felt this one has looked better than her mark and I have doubts about some of those ahead of her on my ratings. (I've also taken 7/2 place-only.)
 
2.30 - Hot Front 150/1, 5 places - just noticed this. Paul Cole traditionally only runs them here if he really likes them so I've no reason to believe sharing the training licence with his son will change philosophies.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, Ascot 4.20 - Mostahdaf 25/1 - this is an absolutely monstrous price and I fancy he can win. Some of you may recall earlier in the season when reet and I backed one that had won a valuable handicap abroad and the form had been largely ignored. Well give yourself a little exercise and look up the ORs of the horses Mostahdaf smashed to pieces in Riyadh early this year. I'm not insisting the form be taken at face value because the ground was firm and it's possible not everything acted on it but on the bare figures the horse is clear in this race.
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:cool:

Get fvcking in!
 
Balding's Cracksman colt Ndaawi is around 160 for the Queens Vase. Could well step up a level with the extra distance.
 
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Friday 4.20 - Comhra 33/1 - only two places on offer but this price is wrong. I've backed Meditate to reverse the Irish 1000 Guineas form with Tahiyra [because I think she'll come forward the way Paddington did] but this filly was only a head behind so should really be third favourite.

5.00 - Clounmacon 25/1, 7 places - Murtagh landed a huge gamble at this meeting, maybe even in this race, a couple of years ago so I want this one onside early.
 
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I think that Wise Eagle (50/1) is overpriced in the Gold Cup, one of a very few who is guaranteed to stay. Tudhope is also Nicols go to jockey 11 runners, 4 wins, 7 places and 72% of rivals beaten. Big step up but should be at least half that price.

I've added Trueshan at 20/1.
 
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Few for tomorrow.

15:05 - Struth 25/1 Bet365

Won on both soft and good to firm so no ground worries. Ran over 1m7f last time out in a good 2nd to Saint George who ran Gregory close today in the Queen’s Vase. Won well at Chester at this distance he runs at tomorrow.


Same race I’m inclined to take a chance on Greysfall Storm at 22/1 also. Won easily on her handicap debut stepped up to 1m2f off top weight and the 2nd that day, Lucky Fifteen, has won two races since at the same distance quite easily.


17:00 - Finn’s Charm 50/1 in places

Second in German 2000 Guineas last time out and is top weight in this race. Few winners have come out of his Musselburgh win in April and is worth an each way go in this in my opinion. Also taking a chance on Physique at 40/1 off such a light weight. Tries to make the running so jockey will have to get his fractions right but hopefully can hang on for a place.

18:10 - Bopedro 33/1 in places
Ran mostly over 1m lately but his lto effort over 7f at York was a decent 2nd behind an easy winner. Ran decently in three previous attempts at Ascot all over 1m (8th, 4th and 8th) and now tries his, in my opinion, preferred distance at the track.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
I think that Wise Eagle (50/1) is overpriced in the Gold Cup, one of a very few who is guaranteed to stay. Tudhope is also Nicols go to jockey 11 runners, 4 wins, 7 places and 72% of rivals beaten. Big step up but should be at least half that price.

I've added Trueshan at 20/1.
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Wise Eagle has such a will to win. If Danny can just get his one burst of speed right! It’s the nearest I’ll ever get to knowing what it’s like to own a racehorse and I’m a complete wreck already. I’ve been saying for ages they aught to put a sign up saying Seahouses, the home of Wise Eagle. It’s like Red Rum meets Dream Alliance. They’ve got his half sister, too.
 
Very disappointing to only have 4 places in the Brittania tomorrow.

Forca timao 50/1 is over priced imo.
 
Also putting up Redarna at 100/1 in the lucky last tomorrow. Won at 66/1 on its reappearance last season. Two visits over the years at Ascot resulting in a win over tomorrow’s 7f and a second over 1m last season in the Shergar Cup.
 
I almost always go mob-handed in the big handicaps and today's KGV is no different.

These are the longshots I've backed (all covered with Bertinelli), not in any order of preference. Fingers crossed one wins and a couple get in the first six:

Struth 25/1
Inquiring Minds 40/1
Double March 33/1
Mr Mistoffelees 50/1
Cloudbreaker 20/1 (missed the 40s dammit)
Sisyphus Strength 66/1

(One placer will cover the place portions, owt better than that is profit.)
 
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2.30 - The Fixer 22/1, 4 places - clocked 56s for five furlongs at Chantilly on ground described as just 'good'. I think Chantilly is an easy track but so is York and juveniles seldom put up that kind of time there on fast ground. There might have been a tail hurricane on the day, who knows, but at the price I can pay to find out.
 
Britannia - Betterdaysrcoming 60 on the exchange (cf 33 with the books) - I spent some time trying to get a decent price for a top four finish as well but gave up. I think 13/2 was the best. Then I saw it was drawn 1 anyway and decided it's win or bosom. As for the horse, it clocked a smart time recently and the form is working out. Knowing my luck it will win on its side, five lengths behind the nearside.

Also, Finn's Charm 40s, 4 places - nicely rated, good on the clock, from the Johnston stable and drawn nearside.

I've also gone in again on Mustajaab at 80/1, 4 places. I'd be sick if it won and I only had 40s. :ninja:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
2.30 - The Fixer 22/1, 4 places - clocked 56s for five furlongs at Chantilly on ground described as just 'good'. I think Chantilly is an easy track but so is York and juveniles seldom put up that kind of time there on fast ground. There might have been a tail hurricane on the day, who knows, but at the price I can pay to find out.
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Small thing but 1000m isn't quite 5 furlongs (6.39 yards less).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot, Thursday 5.35 - Tony Montana 33/1, 4 places - bred in the purple and likely to be a big improver this season. On his debut last season he split two horses now rated in the high 90s and the winner is only 6/1 for the Ribblesdale. The Gosdens have two others in the race and I wouldn't be surprised if this one is the pick and one of them is 5/1 fav.
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I've gone in again at 50s.
 
Saturday, Jubilee Stks - Big Invasion 20/1, 5 places - covered the six furlongs at Belmont in under 68s. You'd do well to achieve that at Goodwood or Epsom.

Mind you, that approach didn't work with the French horse in today's opener.
 
I’m really busy working on my house so haven’t been able to study the races. But I had a quick look at the first race and backed Valiant Force because I liked what it said in the write up ( said a drop back to 5f would help)..also Malc because of trainers record in the race. If only my good luck continues and Wise Eagle runs a blinder ( back to painting the windows now….)
 
moehat said:
I’m really busy working on my house so haven’t been able to study the races. But I had a quick look at the first race and backed Valiant Force because I liked what it said in the write up ( said a drop back to 5f would help)..also Malc because of trainers record in the race. If only my good luck continues and Wise Eagle runs a blinder ( back to painting the windows now….)
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Waiting for the forecast aswell :lol:
 
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