The 2023 Longshot Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
moehat said:
I’m really busy working on my house so haven’t been able to study the races. But I had a quick look at the first race and backed Valiant Force because I liked what it said in the write up ( said a drop back to 5f would help)..also Malc because of trainers record in the race. If only my good luck continues and Wise Eagle runs a blinder ( back to painting the windows now….)
Click to expand...

Fantastic moe!!!

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
Not with 3 pence ew! Anyway, it all pales into insignificance now awaiting Wise Eagles race. I feel physically sick. Just want him to come home safe…( I hope Danny just eased him down when he realised he couldn’t go with them and that he’s ok for The Plate. When my hands stop shaking I’ll go back to the windows! )
Postscript. He lost a shoe and wasn’t going with his usual zest: on his way home and he’ll wake up in his own stable tomorrow. I’m still proud of him….
 
Last edited:
Saturday, Chesham - Warnie 28/1, 4 places - total guesswork but why is Joseph O'Brien bringing one across to this meeting to make its debut, ridden by James McDonald? It was 50s earlier so maybe something behind the move.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Chesham - Warnie 28/1, 4 places - total guesswork but why is Joseph O'Brien bringing one across to this meeting to make its debut, ridden by James McDonald? It was 50s earlier so maybe something behind the move.
Click to expand...

"He’s an unraced horse that was bought at the breeze-up sales by Bennett Racing in the hope that he might be good enough and forward enough to run in the Chesham Stakes. We ran him in a barrier trial at Naas a couple of weeks ago and he finished a lovely third in a race that has been working out well on the track. He will improve a lot for that, and we feel he has earned his place in the race. It’s a brave call, but hopefully he will justify it."

Joseph also runs a Ten Sovereigns filly that won FTO. Nemonte. Should be smart.
 
Last edited:
Saturday, Ascot 5.35 - Have Secret 22/1, 5 places & Coco Jack 40/1, 5 places. The London Gold Cup went through a barren spell with its subsequent runners until this week when it has been franked all over the shop so I’ve backed Have Secret, beaten only a length in fourth, here. I’ve also backed Lion Of War (10/1) who is worth a substantial mark-up on his recent win and should be suited by stepping up in trip but wherever he finishes Coco Jack shouldn’t be far behind because he kept on well from the front that day and will also be suited by the extra distance. I’ll settle for these three against the field.
 
Land o'Burns Ayr 3.34 Silent Words 33-1

92,000 buy. Only 3 runs into career. Won a Newcastle novice FTO at two for Kevin Ryan, headed by a Roger Varian nice type 2nd race as a 3YO, then a fair 4th in a York listed. There's a chance the York 5f was a little too fast, and this more galloping Ayr 5f can see some improvement.

I'd be worried about the Twomey 3YO, with W J Lee coming over to ride. Likewise, one of the 4YOs might have an edge on experience (I'm thinking Makarova most likely, but the others look highly capable as well).

KR got yet another win out of the Bottle in the week, and Queen Me ran well enough at Ascot. Stable not exactly flying, but appears in reasonable shape.

Overall, 33-1 looks too big.
 
oh dear, no prizes for last, not in this game. That surely wasn't right running though, may get another (cautious) chance to recover.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Ascot 5.35 - Have Secret 22/1, 5 places & Coco Jack 40/1, 5 places. The London Gold Cup went through a barren spell with its subsequent runners until this week when it has been franked all over the shop so I’ve backed Have Secret, beaten only a length in fourth, here. I’ve also backed Lion Of War (10/1) who is worth a substantial mark-up on his recent win and should be suited by stepping up in trip but wherever he finishes Coco Jack shouldn’t be far behind because he kept on well from the front that day and will also be suited by the extra distance. I’ll settle for these three against the field.
Click to expand...

Didn't realise until they showed the result that Have Secret got fourth. That'll claw back most of the losses on the other horses.
 
Salisbury 4.40 - Raintown 20/1 BOG - an aso-ran in the London Gold Cup and next time, possibly excusable (firm ground, bounce) but the form is now being franked as anticipated at the time and he's back down the handicap.
 
I'll be having a saver on Raintown but I'm gonna argue that the Chesspiece 12f handicap at the Dante meeting is slightly better form. Chesspiece himself I think ran well in the Queen's Vase, Land Legend was most eye catching in the KV and Great Bedwyn in 6th won at Goodwood on Friday. All this is to say I'll be backing Baltic Voyage in this Salisbury race.
 
Euronymous said:
I'll be having a saver on Raintown but I'm gonna argue that the Chesspiece 12f handicap at the Dante meeting is slightly better form. Chesspiece himself I think ran well in the Queen's Vase, Land Legend was most eye catching in the KV and Great Bedwyn in 6th won at Goodwood on Friday. All this is to say I'll be backing Baltic Voyage in this Salisbury race.
Click to expand...

I didn't study the form for tomorrow's race. Just thought the price was too big to ignore.
 
Reckon he was outpaced on the fast ground, same going here and strong pace predicted.
Wouldn't touch him,personally.

Raintown. that is.
 
Last edited:
Galactic Jack is an interesting runner. Been running in Class1 Listed and Group3 races and it’s his handicap debut. Deserted by Oisin Murphy, though (which may be a tip in itself for Gosden’s Maasai Mara), but Harry Davies is good value for his three pounds allowance.
 
That Totito form from Epsom which Maasai Mara represents tomorrow is red hot. The second pissed in at Ponte on Sunday and Fox Journey was just out of the frame on the same card (stepped up in trip).
 
reet hard said:
Reckon he was outpaced on the fast ground, same going here and strong pace predicted.
Wouldn't touch him,personally.

Raintown. that is.
Click to expand...

Stan Moore did say after the last Newbury run that Raintown wouldn't let himself down on the ground. I'd have thought that if SM let's him run tomorrow, it could be they've watered enough to make it viable. If there's no sting, the extra 2f might help. Whatever, when he gets his ground, there's a great chance it's a pay day.
 
I'll take my chance with Nader King (4/1).By Camelot, this £340k colt looks bound to improve for this stiffer test, and will benefit from a typical SMS preparation,imo.
 
barjon said:
Galactic Jack is an interesting runner. Been running in Class1 Listed and Group3 races and it’s his handicap debut. Deserted by Oisin Murphy, though (which may be a tip in itself for Gosden’s Maasai Mara), but Harry Davies is good value for his three pounds allowance.
Click to expand...

Nice one, barjon :thumbsup:

Shame it doesn't qualify as a winner for the thread :p and the horse itself looks a bit of a nutter.

In the two minutes before the off time when I started watching to the off itself (less than a minute late, I reckon) Raintown drifted from 18/1 to 25/1. Wasn't ridden entirely like a non-trier but the rider appeared to deliberately delay out of the stalls and made brief progress up the straight before accepting defeat. I don't know the technical name for it but the horse appears to throw its off-fore wide when galloping. I've no idea if that's an indicator of requiring specific going but it's a bit ungainly. I've have the horse tracking for three runs and will probably stick with for them but expectations will be limited. Maybe if there's money for it some day..
 
I still think he's got something when the ground's softer. Actually got nudged/ diverted a couple of times at Newbury, but for which he'd likely have been closer still. This race won't have done any harm to odds when the time is right, for sure.
 
Last edited:
I had some dosh on Themaxwecan in the Ascot Stakes and he didn't run too badly so I'm sticking with him at 66/1, 5 places, BOG, in the Northumberland Plate (but will be backing a few, obviously).

He went up to 103 during the summer of 2020 and again in 2021. He was only eight lengths off Coltrane in last year's Ascot Stakes and ran a similar race last week off his current mark. He also won back at Ascot later last season in the pretty valuable Shergar Cup Stayers' race off this mark. He's obviously inconsistent but the price is too much just in case he is on a going day.
 
Last edited:
In the Vase - I believe CJ thinks there are (slim, but potential) chances that Hadrianus could end up a Cup horse. The 1m6f of the Queens Vase may not have been far enough, given the level of competition in that race. But this 2 miles can be spot on at this stage. Odds not high enough for this thread, but it struck me the EW double with Themaxwecan might scrape in.

I'm a little worried that Max hasn't performed to any level in two previous tries at 2 at Newcastle - and can't see any obvious patterns that might explain that - but it's interesting they try again and, yes DO, 66-1 seems eminently fair.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top