The 2023 Longshot Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Saturday, Curragh 3.25 - Comhra 28/1 - her Irish Guineas form was well franked at Ascot. She was scratched that day and turns up here on probably less firm going over an extra quarter-mile, which looks likely to suit her since her dosage profile is screaming ten furlongs. Bolger's erring on the side of caution last week could well reap dividends but obviously this is an each-way bet with Via Sistina and Above The Curve hot opposition. If anyone goes 7/1 a top three finish I'll be taking that too.
 
Last edited:
PLATE .

I have to stick with BERKSHIRE ROCCO 25/1 I backed it at Ascot.Balding has 2 in the race and H.Davies claims on the other one although its lower in the weights.Clifford Lee is a strange booking.but hes capable.
 
Newcastle 12.55 - Judicial 25/1 - it seems the horse at turned up minus his legs. It was 12/1 tops yesterday at lunchtime so the drift is pretty alarming but Camachos runners did well at Ascot, the horse is a CD winner, can go well fresh and was running to RPRs of 111 and 112 in his final two runs last season. Not my main bet in the race but I did have a second look at it yesterday at 12s so am happy to throw some fun money at it. Obviously the drift is a concern but nothing ventured and all that. I'll be happy with a top three finish and if BTB doesn't run his race who knows.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newcastle 12.55 - Judicial 25/1 - it seems the horse at turned up minus his legs. It was 12/1 tops yesterday at lunchtime so the drift is pretty alarming but Camachos runners did well at Ascot, the horse is a CD winner, can go well fresh and was running to RPRs of 111 and 112 in his final two runs last season. Not my main bet in the race but I did have a second look at it yesterday at 12s so am happy to throw some fun money at it. Obviously the drift is a concern but nothing ventured and all that. I'll be happy with a top three finish and if BTB doesn't run his race who knows.
Click to expand...

Took 14s last night, no BOG, thinking it was a rick and I was pulling a fast one lol
 
Ran as though badly in need of it and looked after. BTB very disappointing too. Wonder what the plan is with him.
 
African Sun 5.00 Utt 50-1 B3, 40 others


Class 5 Uttoxeter hurdle

AS is a CD winner on good ground last July, and run OK a couple of times since. Only 6, there's probably more in the tank, may be a little stronger now, and James Best will know how to give him a ride. There's a worry his two best races were when hurdles were omitted (the win I don't think they jumped half, but the other one was on pretty soft ground with one omitted and it's likely he'll be ok on good ground for all of them). A fear this could be one race too early and he'll need this, but 50-1 OK to find out (for very small stakes).


In the same race, Mactavish 80-1 B3, 66 others.

Finished strongly to be 2nd in a similar CD race last October. Potential excuses all runs since. Blinkers first time throws in some doubt, but clearly could make a positive (or negative) difference.

The interest here comes from running style, sometimes held up off the pace and coming through others. Ciaran Gethings rides and I've seen him do this with some success a few times. Might be worth waiting and see where CG anchors him, but the risk is he has shown some veiled ability when running more prominently, too.

Fairly lightly raced and has some potential. I'd normally be looking for softer or further for a Yorgonnebelucky, but he's proven at 2 miles on good.

****************

Both getting fair amount of weight from those in the top half, AS in particular. There are one or two others at the foot that might go OK. But good enough odds on both to suggest small EW bets are in order.
 
Followed you in with Mactavish, chaumi. That race last October was more valuable and his mark was 8lbs higher then here. 28/1 that day too so capable of outrunning long odds.
 
It isn't unusual for AOB to have one place at very long odds in a classic so for that reason alone I've backed his three rank outsiders in the Irish Derby.

Adelaide River 66/1
Peking Opera 100/1
Covent Garden 125/1

Adelaide River was outsprinted at Epsom and I can see him being ridden more prominently here. Coolmore are mob-handed and I think they'll try and make it a test of stamina.

Peking Opera comes back down in trip from Ascot. Maybe they thought he didn't stay?

Covent Garden has had the longest break since last seen. Could he have surprised them at home or is he just pace fodder? Probably the latter but hey...
 
San Antonio's odds have contracted in to 25-1, I assume on account of the (reportedly, I couldn't see the hang) slightly wayward run at Epsom and the off-chance it was just wrong. At 25's, not big enough to take on AR (which I guess is why you didn't mention him, DO)

I'm thinking Adelaide River is the one out of these 3 :-)
 
Auguste Rodin will be better suited by this track then Epsom,so I'd expect a tour de force.
For the places I'd take Sprewell and Up And Under, but only notionally.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
It isn't unusual for AOB to have one place at very long odds in a classic so for that reason alone I've backed his three rank outsiders in the Irish Derby.

Adelaide River 66/1
Peking Opera 100/1
Covent Garden 125/1

Adelaide River was outsprinted at Epsom and I can see him being ridden more prominently here. Coolmore are mob-handed and I think they'll try and make it a test of stamina.

Peking Opera comes back down in trip from Ascot. Maybe they thought he didn't stay?

Covent Garden has had the longest break since last seen. Could he have surprised them at home or is he just pace fodder? Probably the latter but hey...
Click to expand...

Second, third and fourth and two very decent place returns :)
 
Next two races at the Curragh:

Super Over 66/1
Marsa 40/1
+ ew double

Very close to the top on RPRs so lazy selections on my part to fun money.
 
I know why African Sun won a race where they only jumped half or less the hurdles now - can't jump!! I'll keep an eye open for a late evening race in future where they will only jump 3 or 4, might win that!

Mactavish didn't run. Gutted, more because I went for the EW double with Adelaide River to nice enough stakes. Nothing lost and a bit gained, but slightly painful all the same.
 
Surprised Outsider hasn't put this one up yet :)

Saturday, Sandown 2.25 - Orbaan 25/1 - weighted to win a big one. It's just a question of when. It might be the Golden Mile in a couple of weeks' time but they might have something else for that. I've taken 22/1 to five places.
 
Saturday, Sandown 4.15 - Aikhal 33/1, 4pl, BOG - went up to 111 for winning a 10f G3 at the Curragh for Aiden O'Brien last summer and drops to 102 here after a jog round at the back over 12f at Ascot the other week on his debut for the Osbornes. Wears blinkers for the first time. The John Smith might be the target and a penalty would be a problem there but 33/1 strikes me as too long for one of his [historical] ability. I suspect a run into third or fourth might be the plan rather than the win but you never know...
 
Last edited:
Old Newton Cup - Howth 25/1, 5 places. As a 2yo, this was Ryan Moore's ride for Aiden O'Brien in the Royal Lodge when rated 102 after being a close but unlucky placer in the G2 Champions Juvenile at Leopardstown the time before. He started his 3yo season rated 102 but didn't progress and moved to Michael Appleby that summer. After a couple of duff runs, he was a half-length second in a fair 10f race at Chelmsford of just 92 but it was a possible indication that the trainer was finding the key to him. He debuted this season with a jog down the field over 9f at Newmarket, then "ran too free" when beaten 5L by the half-decent Honiton before being a running-on close third back at Chelmsford. Appleby is as fly as a cage of monkeys and this horse bears all the hallmarks of being brought along with a target in mind. He's in the John Smith's but has no realistic chance of getting in so this £150k prize looks right up his street given his breeding. I'm an advocate of allowing good juveniles a disappointing second season since they often come back the following year. If this one does, he could be chucked in off 89. At the price it's worth paying to find out. I don't have the BOG so if it drifts in the morning I'll go in again.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Sandown 2.25 - Orbaan 25/1 - weighted to win a big one. It's just a question of when. It might be the Golden Mile in a couple of weeks' time but they might have something else for that. I've taken 22/1 to five places.
Click to expand...

Same race - I backed Major Partnership for this yesterday but it was only 16/1 then. It's out to 25/1 and pink pretty much across the board so expectations are duly lowered but I've gone in again. If it's trying the price is wrong.
 
Can only use mobile so can’t double check odds. Think Existent is best 25 in the Coral Charge. If he goes out to 33 or 40, those odds can underestimate chances. Will need best effort and it all to fall right, my reading is he’s capable.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Surprised Outsider hasn't put this one up yet :)

Saturday, Sandown 2.25 - Orbaan 25/1 - weighted to win a big one. It's just a question of when. It might be the Golden Mile in a couple of weeks' time but they might have something else for that. I've taken 22/1 to five places.
Click to expand...

Out to 50s so I've gone in again.
 
Prix Jean Prat - Charyn 25/1 - only a neck behind today's hotpot fav Chaldean in the strongly run SJP so the price is wrong. I'm not suggesting he can reverse the form - Chaldean was worth a mark-up after going too early - but he's probably twice the price he should be and if for any reason Chaldean doesn't run his race...
 
Desert Orchid said:
It isn't unusual for AOB to have one place at very long odds in a classic so for that reason alone I've backed his three rank outsiders in the Irish Derby.

Adelaide River 66/1
Peking Opera 100/1
Covent Garden 125/1

Adelaide River was outsprinted at Epsom and I can see him being ridden more prominently here. Coolmore are mob-handed and I think they'll try and make it a test of stamina.

Peking Opera comes back down in trip from Ascot. Maybe they thought he didn't stay?

Covent Garden has had the longest break since last seen. Could he have surprised them at home or is he just pace fodder? Probably the latter but hey...
Click to expand...


A £1 Combination T/C with Auguste Rodin as a banker would have paid you £515 for £6.....
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top