The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Ascot 1.45 - Mountain Peak 20/1, 5 places - touched off Bond Chairman in this race last year after just missing out in the Dash. Skipped that this year and comes here on the back of three underwhelming runs but those have got him in here 8lbs lower. If he's on song and drawn in the right part of the track he is a good thing. I just worry that he's on the wrong side. I've got half my money on so far and will wait until BOGs kick in before getting the rest on.
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NR
 
With Mountain Peak coming out, I've switched to Hierarchy, 35/1, BOG, 5 pl. A very good second last spring in the Commonweath Cup Trial when rated 108, he's been ostensibly on the downgrade since but his mark reflects that and he runs off 92 here. This is only his second run for the Osbornes in this country. There's no indication he'll like the softened ground but he hasn't really been tried on it and just as I was trying to take 40s a few moments ago the price was cut and I now see it's blue across the board so maybe they think he's going to stage some kind of return to form, in which case he'd carry this lot and beat them.

Also - Bunbury Cup - The Gatekeeper 28/1, 5 places, BOG - I mentioned this one in my blurb on the day's racing. He strikes me as one of those Johnston horses, like Killybegs Warrior yesterday, who lose their form for a bit before storming back to better at this meeting. I held off on taking 40s on Thursday but maybe the non-runners are partly to blame for the slightly disappointing :p odds.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Ante-post - John Smith's Cup - Sea The Casper 20/1, 4 pl, Unibet - I suspect this one might not run because otherwise it should be disputing favouritism. On the current RP card it's at #25 where 22 is the max. However, it's there on 97 but will get a 5lb penalty for last month's win at Lingfield. That was a ready win from solid performers and it's new mark is 106 so it will be 4lbs well in but that doesn't show in any of the cards. Other penalties do show, eg Savvy Victory's, so it's probably just a technical glitch but 102 will get it comfortably past the cut and once it becomes general knowledge that it's 4lbs well in (and improving fast, it would seem), that price will not last. All that is assuming it runs but it doesn't hold any entries in any lesser races in the foreseeable.
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9/2 now...bet you wish you had 6 places
 
I'd be seriously disappointed if I thought I needed six places, though, Maxbet. I did get it right about it disputing favouritism too.
 
If that wasn't a dead heat I don't know what is.

Pleased with Haunted Dream who ran his heart out for third place. He could be the horse to take out of the race, but I would say that.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Sneaking a small ew on Astro King just at the start. 50s ridiculous!
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Desert Orchid said:
YRK 3.10 JOHN SMITH'S CUP HANDICAP (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
DrawHorseORMON
124+		NotesRPRBO
16Sonny Liston100129+? p +t?12115/2
12Long Tradition91126+p12515/2
11Astro King99124p +?12116/1
10Cadillac110122+11816/1
4Sea The Casper102122+p1248/1
21Spirit Dancer97122125?1199/1
13Marie's Diamond9612211925/1
6Haunted Dream96122+p12216/1
3Nobel93122+p12310/1
14Majestic9212211914/1
8Marhaba The Champ92122? p +2?11916/1
5White Wolf101121p11914/1
15Dawn Of Liberation98121e11650/1
18Scampi92121p t?11812/1
2Pride Of America106120p11733/1
20Millebosc97120+? AP
129? Fr		11811/1
17Howth89120AP
[126?]		11966/1
1Faylaq86120t?
[138]		11820/1
9Certain Lad107119+
125?		11625/1
23The City's Phantom86119123e11540/1
7Postmark89118p11150/1
19Makinmedoit10011711828/1
22Cockalorum8611612411550/1

<tbody>
</tbody>
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Astro King was third on my list with potential for better, 16/1 on Thursday and I'd no idea it was drifting like that until five mins before the off. Couldn't let it go.
 
Great bet, unlucky. After the likely winner (Peace Man) was pulled out I didn't bother looking at the race.
 
Just watched the replay. Astro King is the only one of the first half dozen to race in the final half/third of the field. Did remarkably well to get as close as he did and is worth a serious mark-up.

Having seen the earlier winners run prominently (and Copper Knight made all on Friday) I want to see anything I'd back run in the front third so I was happy with the rides both Sea The Casper and Long Tradition were getting. Maybe they didn't get home due to stamina or the ground but it wasn't down to tactics. I also noticed Faylaq got a more prominent ride than usual. Astro King would have covered me for the day.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the replay. Astro King is the only one of the first half dozen to race in the final half/third of the field. Did remarkably well to get as close as he did and is worth a serious mark-up.

Having seen the earlier winners run prominently (and Copper Knight made all on Friday) I want to see anything I'd back run in the front third so I was happy with the rides both Sea The Casper and Long Tradition were getting. Maybe they didn't get home due to stamina or the ground but it wasn't down to tactics. I also noticed Faylaq got a more prominent ride than usual. Astro King would have covered me for the day.
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Astro King is a talented horse on his day for sure. When you look at his overall career though, you see just how many times he put in a great run after a really bad run, (and vice versa), such as today after running a stinker at Royal Ascot, after running well at York the time before.

If he can run an identical race next time that he did today I'd be surprised, based on his career starts anyway. Certainly for about 2 years now he hasn't run the same race or even near to it twice in a row.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
July Cup - Art Power 33/1 - inconsistent but very smart on a going day. His two best career performances on the numbers are his two wins at the Curragh, in this year’s G2 Greenlands and the 2021 G3 Renaissance, winning both by big margins. He’s only ever run once at this track and that was in this race two years ago when he was beaten less than two lengths by Starman, but he raced with an outsider down the far side and may have been disadvantaged by that. He was clear over there and still put up his third top career run on RPRs. He may also have overdone the early pace as he was well ahead of the field at halfway and still in front inside the final furlong. He’s worth a bet at long odds.
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I need to trawl through my accounts to see if I got four places. Not sure I did.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's very hard to quantify that 'loss' - I'd say it was closer to six lengths - because the early pace was soft. I've deliberately left it unquantified but in my head I'm allowing at least 5lbs. I think he's a very worthy favourite and will probably back him unless the price contracts ridiculously through today.

But...

Will he rear again at the start?
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Well, he did but again it didn't really matter.

This is a genuinely top class sprinter.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, he did but again it didn't really matter.

This is a genuinely top class sprinter.
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Yes, didn’t lose much this time and he’s got to be good to be giving that sort of ground away and still beating top class sprinters. I convinced myself that it didn’t matter in the end and thought the price was a bargain.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sneaking a small ew on Astro King just at the start. 50s ridiculous!
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Nice one, desert. Just come across this somewhat late in the day:

ASTRO KING
Daniel & Claire Kübler
Astro King ran really well on his first start for us at York. He stayed on well that day and we’ve had this race in mind since. He was a bit disappointing at Ascot but has trained well since and our only concern is that there may be too much rain.
 
Nodsasgoodasawink 2.50 Ham Linda Perratt's Sixties Icon low grade sprinter. As a 5YO, only a matter of time before he runs a race, and there were limited signs last time (3 days ago) that he may be on the way back. There is some (again, limited) history of coming back quickly and running OK. Paddy Mathers up and has been on for a few of the previous good runs.

25 B3 (shorter and blue elsewhere)

Definitely wouldn't be taking lower than that 25, and there's only 18 or so on the Exchange right now. Could easily drift.

LP has pulled out Burtonlodge Beauty from this race this morning, another that will likely come good at some point unexpectedly.
 
Two tracker alerts this evening. I'll spare you the details but both appear to be attracting money.

Both at Newbury:

3.35 - Ithaca's Arrow 33/1 (in from 50s)
4.45 - Action Point (25/1)
 
Ithaca's is out of the Newbury race, ofc. Down to a class 4 from that should be interesting. Gelded since, and has a longer break here than when no show at Leicester only a couple of weeks after Newbury. Might be a good (further) marker for the 'that race took too much out of them' theory.
 
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[Tomorrow] Newbury 2.25 - Stay Well 28/1, 5 places - I don’t particularly fancy him to live up to his name and he’s never tried more than 12f to date but there’s cause for optimism in his dosage figures so I’m having a pop at the price, with Hills going five places. He's handicapped to have a real chance if he does stay. Draw a line through his last run; he got involved in that furious pace and was spent early.
 
Desert Orchid said:
[Tomorrow] Newbury 2.25 - Stay Well 28/1, 5 places - I don’t particularly fancy him to live up to his name and he’s never tried more than 12f to date but there’s cause for optimism in his dosage figures so I’m having a pop at the price, with Hills going five places. He's handicapped to have a real chance if he does stay. Draw a line through his last run; he got involved in that furious pace and was spent early.
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I've decided to back this up with Euchen Glen, 25/1. There has to be a fair chance he’ll sneak into the Ebor at the bottom of the weights, due out in the next few days, but he’ll probably need at least 10 to come out of that. They could hold off and pick up a 4lbs penalty nearer the time or run well or win here and get a nudge up. He’s unlikely to go up any more than 4lbs for winning this as his running style means he’ll be produced late for a narrow win.

So I've also taken him at 50/1 for the Ebor.
 
Irish Oaks - Comhra 40/1 - excellent third in the Irish Guineas but a late withdrawal at Ascot followed by a poor run in the Pretty Polly when they said that was down to an allergy she had contracted at Ascot. She's had three weeks to get over that so if she's anywhere near as good as she suggested in the Guineas - and stays this trip - then she shouldn't be 40/1. She might be one of those that people look at after the race and ask how she could have been that kind of price. For the record, and for the same reasons as I punted the stable's rags in the Irish Derby, I'll also be backing Library at 80/1, hopefully with the BOG.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two tracker alerts this evening. I'll spare you the details but both appear to be attracting money.

Both at Newbury:

3.35 - Ithaca's Arrow 33/1 (in from 50s)
4.45 - Action Point (25/1)
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Ithaca's Arrow (sp 50/1) probably did a bit too much up front. We'll see what the sectionals say.
 
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