The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
Prix Jean Prat - Charyn 25/1 - only a neck behind today's hotpot fav Chaldean in the strongly run SJP so the price is wrong. I'm not suggesting he can reverse the form - Chaldean was worth a mark-up after going too early - but he's probably twice the price he should be and if for any reason Chaldean doesn't run his race...
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The market has corrected itself. It's now 14/1 tops.
 
Ante-post - John Smith's Cup - Sea The Casper 20/1, 4 pl, Unibet - I suspect this one might not run because otherwise it should be disputing favouritism. On the current RP card it's at #25 where 22 is the max. However, it's there on 97 but will get a 5lb penalty for last month's win at Lingfield. That was a ready win from solid performers and it's new mark is 106 so it will be 4lbs well in but that doesn't show in any of the cards. Other penalties do show, eg Savvy Victory's, so it's probably just a technical glitch but 102 will get it comfortably past the cut and once it becomes general knowledge that it's 4lbs well in (and improving fast, it would seem), that price will not last. All that is assuming it runs but it doesn't hold any entries in any lesser races in the foreseeable.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Prix Jean Prat - Charyn 25/1 - only a neck behind today's hotpot fav Chaldean in the strongly run SJP so the price is wrong. I'm not suggesting he can reverse the form - Chaldean was worth a mark-up after going too early - but he's probably twice the price he should be and if for any reason Chaldean doesn't run his race...
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Chaldean went out like a light but Charyn wasn't good enough to get a place. 40/1 shot hacks up and the French look a lot better than ours.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ante-post - John Smith's Cup - Sea The Casper 20/1, 4 pl, Unibet - I suspect this one might not run because otherwise it should be disputing favouritism. On the current RP card it's at #25 where 22 is the max. However, it's there on 97 but will get a 5lb penalty for last month's win at Lingfield. That was a ready win from solid performers and it's new mark is 106 so it will be 4lbs well in but that doesn't show in any of the cards. Other penalties do show, eg Savvy Victory's, so it's probably just a technical glitch but 102 will get it comfortably past the cut and once it becomes general knowledge that it's 4lbs well in (and improving fast, it would seem), that price will not last. All that is assuming it runs but it doesn't hold any entries in any lesser races in the foreseeable.
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Yes, he will surely make the cut if they intend to run him. Even if he doesn't run off 106 and runs off the high 90's he still gets in.

Just checked the past 3 renewals and the cut off marks seem to vary quite markedly.

In Sinjaari's race in 2020 the cut off mark was in the high 80s believe it or not.

In the 2021 race won by Johnny Drama that cut off mark went up to the mid 90's...then last year in Anmaat's race it went back to the high 80s.

My feeling looking at this years entries is it will go to the mid 90's again.

I thought Haunted Dream ran a massively eyecatching race yesterday when second to Lord Protector. Like you I couldn't be sure of connections intentions to run him only a week later, but after being keen early yesterday, to finish like that was some effort.

It seems like Haunted Dream can be forgiven for his Royal Ascot run as he probably needed the run.

He is no.35 in the list, so I'd hope plenty of horses in front of him come out tomorrow. I haven't totally lost hope that he might make the cut off a mark of 96, based on the stats I gave earlier in this post.
 
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Thursday, Newmarket, 1.50 - Think First, 66/1 - on my figures has a similar, even slightly better, chance as 16/1 shot Land Legend so I think the price can't be right. That said, I think LL should be longer than 16s. I also think TF might be better stepping back slightly in trip from Ascot and strange things can happen in small-field races. I half-expect him to be prominent, if not lead, and hope to catch the better horses unawares. Hoping against hope, in all probability, so very modest stakes. Then again, if the price goes out I'll be going in again as there's no BOG at this stage.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ante-post - John Smith's Cup - Sea The Casper 20/1, 4 pl, Unibet - I suspect this one might not run because otherwise it should be disputing favouritism. On the current RP card it's at #25 where 22 is the max. However, it's there on 97 but will get a 5lb penalty for last month's win at Lingfield. That was a ready win from solid performers and it's new mark is 106 so it will be 4lbs well in but that doesn't show in any of the cards. Other penalties do show, eg Savvy Victory's, so it's probably just a technical glitch but 102 will get it comfortably past the cut and once it becomes general knowledge that it's 4lbs well in (and improving fast, it would seem), that price will not last. All that is assuming it runs but it doesn't hold any entries in any lesser races in the foreseeable.
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I reckon the air around some yards this morning might be a bit blue.

Not only has Sea The Casper made the cut but there have been so many withdrawals, incredibly unusual for this race, that it gets in at #4 on the card! Its penalty now shows on the RP card and it is definitely 4lbs well in. As I also said when I made the bet, the price was wrong. It's now 10/1 tops so I'm happy with the bet and cashout might become an option.

There's another I've now backed but it doesn't qualify for the thread. It's on the ante-post thread.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Newmarket, 1.50 - Think First, 66/1 - on my figures has a similar, even slightly better, chance as 16/1 shot Land Legend so I think the price can't be right. That said, I think LL should be longer than 16s. I also think TF might be better stepping back slightly in trip from Ascot and strange things can happen in small-field races. I half-expect him to be prominent, if not lead, and hope to catch the better horses unawares. Hoping against hope, in all probability, so very modest stakes. Then again, if the price goes out I'll be going in again as there's no BOG at this stage.
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Out to 100/1 so I've gone in again, only two places, mind, so I might scout about to see who's offering a third place to reduced odds.

(Edit, it's gone out again to 125/1 s clearly not expected to do much other than pick up 4th/5th place money so I've been able to cash out the original bet to no loss.)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Out to 100/1 so I've gone in again, only two places, mind, so I might scout about to see who's offering a third place to reduced odds.

(Edit, it's gone out again to 125/1 s clearly not expected to do much other than pick up 4th/5th place money so I've been able to cash out the original bet to no loss.)
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I've managed to get 95/1 (B365) ew three places.
 
Nwm 3.00 - Animate 22/1, 5 places - top on my figures but I fancied a few to improve past it. The price is too big to let go, though, since others' improvement might not be forthcoming.
 
Saturday, York 2.35 - Rum Cocktail 33/1, 4 places - absolutely ran away with her race last time by 6½ lengths. It was a very modest race compared to this one but 6½ lengths equates to more than 22lbs and the form of the second, third and fourth stacks up well. She also did it from a prominent position off a strong pace. The others were slowing rather than she quickening [as the visual comment in the form book says] but it still amounts to a huge performance for the class of race. This isn't another Equality of last week, though. She has a tougher task here but she shouldn't be 33/1, but she's a 4yo female and might just be one of those who suddenly take off on a steep upward curve. (I like females with curves..) On my figures she'd only need to improve another 6lbs to have a winning chance.
 
July Cup - Art Power 33/1 - inconsistent but very smart on a going day. His two best career performances on the numbers are his two wins at the Curragh, in this year’s G2 Greenlands and the 2021 G3 Renaissance, winning both by big margins. He’s only ever run once at this track and that was in this race two years ago when he was beaten less than two lengths by Starman, but he raced with an outsider down the far side and may have been disadvantaged by that. He was clear over there and still put up his third top career run on RPRs. He may also have overdone the early pace as he was well ahead of the field at halfway and still in front inside the final furlong. He’s worth a bet at long odds.
 
chaumi said:
Where does Emaraaty Ana sit in your figures, DO? i suspect this is the main season target.
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I haven't finalised the synopsis yet but here's the figures:

Horse
OR
TS
MON
Notes
BO
Art Power
114
98
124
?
33/1
Kinross
119
121
124
? s
5/1
Shaquille
117
104
121
+p
9/4
Vadream
108
115
119
? s
40/1
Emaraaty Ana
111
109
117
33/1
Khaadem
117
111
117
11/1
Run To Freedom
112
112
117
33/1
Azure Blue
114
107
117
p
7/2
Little Big Bear
119
108
117
124o
4/1

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't finalised the synopsis yet but here's the figures:

Horse
OR
TS
MON
Notes
BO
Art Power
114
98
124
?
33/1
Kinross
119
121
124
? s
5/1
Shaquille
117
104
121
+p
9/4
Vadream
108
115
119
? s
40/1
Emaraaty Ana
111
109
117
33/1
Khaadem
117
111
117
11/1
Run To Freedom
112
112
117
33/1
Azure Blue
114
107
117
p
7/2
Little Big Bear
119
108
117
124o
4/1

<tbody>
</tbody>
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It was a remarkable race by Shaquille last time, desert. After rearing up, must have lost 3/4 lengths at the start which is pretty much a death knell in a sprint race. Be interested to know how you catered for that in your figures?
 
Saturday, Ascot 1.45 - Mountain Peak 20/1, 5 places - touched off Bond Chairman in this race last year after just missing out in the Dash. Skipped that this year and comes here on the back of three underwhelming runs but those have got him in here 8lbs lower. If he's on song and drawn in the right part of the track he is a good thing. I just worry that he's on the wrong side. I've got half my money on so far and will wait until BOGs kick in before getting the rest on.
 
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barjon said:
It was a remarkable race by Shaquille last time, desert. After rearing up, must have lost 3/4 lengths at the start which is pretty much a death knell in a sprint race. Be interested to know how you catered for that in your figures?
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It's very hard to quantify that 'loss' - I'd say it was closer to six lengths - because the early pace was soft. I've deliberately left it unquantified but in my head I'm allowing at least 5lbs. I think he's a very worthy favourite and will probably back him unless the price contracts ridiculously through today.

But...

Will he rear again at the start?
 
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Thx, desert. Just been looking back at the sectional times and Rowland’s comments.

IMG_1739.jpeg

A race that is now well established in the Racing Calendar, but it does not always deliver performances that are quite as good as might be expected from a Group 1, this year’s an example, with the winner and the second to a degree posting smart figures but nothing behind better than useful and less than a length between third to sixth. It was at least well run, the finishing speed coming out at 100.3%. The runners came down the centre but fanned out a bit, largely in line with their draws.
SHAQUILLE (115+ here, 112 previously) did well to win at all given that he blew the start by 4 to 5 lengths, and he could well compete for top sprinting honours against older horses, and more widely, if that feature of his performance can be eradicated. He recovered to race in last but in touch, was short of room at halfway then made good headway approaching the final 1f and ran on for pressure to lead with 75 yards to go. He has lost only one of his 7 starts, at 7f as a 2-y-o, and reflects well on his trainer, who has managed to channel his quirks and raw ability consistently in the right direction.
 
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barjon said:
Thx, desert. Just been looking back at the sectional times and Rowland’s comments.

View attachment 3029

A race that is now well established in the Racing Calendar, but it does not always deliver performances that are quite as good as might be expected from a Group 1, this year’s an example, with the winner and the second to a degree posting smart figures but nothing behind better than useful and less than a length between third to sixth. It was at least well run, the finishing speed coming out at 100.3%. The runners came down the centre but fanned out a bit, largely in line with their draws.
SHAQUILLE (115+ here, 112 previously) did well to win at all given that he blew the start by 4 to 5 lengths, and he could well compete for top sprinting honours against older horses, and more widely, if that feature of his performance can be eradicated. He recovered to race in last but in touch, was short of room at halfway then made good headway approaching the final 1f and ran on for pressure to lead with 75 yards to go. He has lost only one of his 7 starts, at 7f as a 2-y-o, and reflects well on his trainer, who has managed to channel his quirks and raw ability consistently in the right direction.
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At 9/4 BJ,with no guarantee he won't do the same again?
 
chaumi said:
Has the makings of a great race. Where does Emaraaty Ana sit in your figures, DO? i suspect this is the main season target.
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Going by the first race (and Killy winning it, looked beforehand that might be best on softened ground) - and the likelihood it'll get softer - I think Emaraaty likely won't run. But AP can handle soft.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Ascot 1.45 - Mountain Peak 20/1, 5 places - touched off Bond Chairman in this race last year after just missing out in the Dash. Skipped that this year and comes here on the back of three underwhelming runs but those have got him in here 8lbs lower. If he's on song and drawn in the right part of the track he is a good thing. I just worry that he's on the wrong side. I've got half my money on so far and will wait until BOGs kick in before getting the rest on.
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My confidence is a bit dented with the ground softening at Ascot. I have a few longshots lined up for this same race but need to check out going requirements. It looks like punters are latching on to horses with proven form in soft and one of my longshots is being backed so I don't get to put it up at 33s. I need to settle for 25/1, 5 places, about Call Me Ginger. Acts in the ground, on the track and is up to winning a race of this nature on my figures.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My confidence is a bit dented with the ground softening at Ascot. I have a few longshots lined up for this same race but need to check out going requirements. It looks like punters are latching on to horses with proven form in soft and one of my longshots is being backed so I don't get to put it up at 33s. I need to settle for 25/1, 5 places, about Call Me Ginger. Acts in the ground, on the track and is up to winning a race of this nature on my figures.
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You’ll have to rely on Goldie wanting CMG for it :confused:
 
I have a suspicion Mulrennan pulled him at the start in the last race a week or so ago. With Amy back on board, this might be a real race. Does he have to win to make the cut for the Stewards?
 
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