The 2023 Longshot Thread

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I was typing the above while the Action Point race was being run. I thought I'd plenty of time and went to check its price only to find it had won (sp 14/1) so that's a nice wee return and covers tomorrow's bets.
 
Oh, thanks DO. I’m avoiding racing radio at the moment as I get too obsessed with it and I’ve got a lot on at the moment ( house stuff) so I’m just poaching other peoples tips and looking later to see if they’ve done anything.
 
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Curragh 4.20 - Young Ireland 40/1, 4 places - probably more than twice it should be so happy to play to small stakes. I've halved those stakes between this and 50s to 3 places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Curragh 4.20 - Young Ireland 40/1, 4 places - probably more than twice it should be so happy to play to small stakes. I've halved those stakes between this and 50s to 3 places.
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Was 2nd in the Roscommon listed race won by Espionage, where Jackfinbar was 3rd. Was slow run (according to RP summary) but time may show it was still a hottish race. Seems every chance YI could go well enough today.
 
Tomorrow, Ascot 5.25 - Bergerac 22/1, 4 places - only Hills are pricing the race up at the moment but I wanted to get on straight away. Bergerac was only two lengths off the winner in the Ayr Gold Cup off 98 and still on a slight curve at that point. Trying to make all, he was still in front half a furlong out with only Commanche Falls for company but his front-running tactics took their toll and the pair were overtaken by the closers on the near side who had been ridden more conservatively. He’s worth a further slight mark-up for that. There has to be a fair chance his season has been geared around that race this season but he’ll now need a penalty to get in and Callan looks a serious jockey booking. He's clear top on my figures and if he's trying I expect him to win barring bad luck in running or the draw being against him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tomorrow, Ascot 5.25 - Bergerac 22/1, 4 places - only Hills are pricing the race up at the moment but I wanted to get on straight away. Bergerac was only two lengths off the winner in the Ayr Gold Cup off 98 and still on a slight curve at that point. Trying to make all, he was still in front half a furlong out with only Commanche Falls for company but his front-running tactics took their toll and the pair were overtaken by the closers on the near side who had been ridden more conservatively. He’s worth a further slight mark-up for that. There has to be a fair chance his season has been geared around that race this season but he’ll now need a penalty to get in and Callan looks a serious jockey booking. He's clear top on my figures and if he's trying I expect him to win barring bad luck in running or the draw being against him.
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40s tonight so I've gone in again...
 
Got up this morning hoping for 50s so I could go in again but it's blue almost across the board and generally 16s/18s.

Did someone of influence put it up overnight?
 
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Tuesday, Goodwood 1.40 - Mountain Peak 33/1, 4 places, BOG - I've gone in unusually heavily with this one. I mentioned it on this thread ahead of its most recent engagement at Ascot a couple of weeks back but they took it out due to the soft ground. It's good to soft at the moment and they could take it out again, so no harm done if they do, but there isn't much rain forecast and they might let it take its chance. There's always the chance the draw will be against it but that's a risk I'm prepared to take for now. I probably should have checked back videos of this race when there's some juice in the ground but the die is cast; I'm already on. I will make that check and edit the post accordingly. One thing I'm fairly certain of is that if the horse turns up and runs his race and isn't inconvenienced by the draw, he wins. End of.

Edit - the stalls are in the centre for this race whereas in the last runnings they've been nearside and Lord Riddiford (my other bet, 9/1) has won from a low draw (away from the rail), so the ba's still up on the slates.
 
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Hope you’re right, desert - just had a mail from my bookie asking for confirmation that it’s really me who just made a bet, he’s never known me play 33/1 before :D
 
:lol:

Just as long as you ain't a jinx :lol:

(There's one I fancy even more later in the day, by the way, and it's a very attractive-looking 11/1.)
 
Tuesday, Goodwood 2.50 - Imperial Fighter 25/1, 5 places - I took the price (BOG) yesterday evening and it's still there with B365 but blue elsewhere. He was third, beaten only 2½ lengths, to Native Trail in last year’s Irish Guineas but weakened on his only subsequent run in the Jockey-Club (soft). He was 9/4f on his seasonal debut in the Doncaster Mile when there was a 114 horse in the race. The trainer blamed the heavy ground for the defeat. He’s been disappointing since over a mile or thereabouts and maybe they feel he now needs to try this trip again. Oisin Murphy looks a serious booking and he wears a first-time hood. (By no means my main bet in the race.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tuesday, Goodwood 2.50 - Imperial Fighter 25/1, 5 places
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Balding said before Ascot that he didn't handle Epsom (the run before the Hunt Cup), which would/might explain that run. Haven't seen anything around what happened in the Hunt Cup. Possibly just an off day, but maybe ground too quick for him??
 
Wednesday, Goodwood 1.50 - Clan Chieftain 20/1, 4 places - certainly not my main bet in the race but he's owned by the Hays who like to have winners here. He beat an odds-on shot first time up and that one went on to win. Clan Chieftain himself was well beaten at odds-on next time but the winner of that race was well behind him the time before so with wind surgery having been done since then it’s probably safe to assume that wasn’t his form.
 
The 8.12 At Ffos Las is a very weak race. If (and it's a big if) Heerathetrack (33-1 in places, may go bigger) gets away on any sort of terms, it'll be easy to say after the race it was all over within 3 seconds of the start. If he can be close enough at the back without having to fight for it early, this mile on soft may be just the ticket. Only one obvious worry, the fancied Adam West runner.
 
Oh woe, got the best start I've ever seen him get, 100BF before the race, cantering 2 out, and still couldn't do anything more than 5th. And Adam West's wins it.

On to another day!
 
I'm not sure the search facility is working well. I was sure there was a thread for this year's Stewards' Cup but nothing's coming up.

Anyroads...

I know Outsider is very keen on Mr Wagyu and I was pretty sure I had also backed it ante-post at 25/1 but I'm not seeing it in my accounts. I've definitely backed Summerghand (which I'm pretty sure will win barring a bad draw) and Tabdeed, both also at 25/1.

I've done a trawl of the figures down to OR92, which might scrape in but probably not. They're basically telling me that if Summerghand, Tabdeed and Mr Wagyu all run their race then not much else will get into it. I will be backing the tricast to small stakes. At current best prices it should pay over 15,000/1. That would be nice for the thread :lol:

But it's a Stewards' Cup, the ground is still a bit of an unknown, as is the draw and we're also at the mercy of the stupidity of the jockeys.

Still, Mr Wagyu is a stand-out 25/1 (boostable) with Hills (only four places at this stage) so I've now definitely joined Outsider.
 
Goodwood 2.50 - Ancient Rome 33/1, 5 places - was only a head behind the winner Angel Bleu in the G1 Critérium de Saint-Cloud for Coolmore as a juvenile but appears to have gone backwards. Fabre has run him twice in the new colours (the Hays, who like winners here and they like Spencer to ride them) but now he’s with Hills. He was on my radar when I did the race on Sunday but he was only 14s tops then. A return to anywhere near his best could make those odds look very generous.
 
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