The 2023 Longshot Thread

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barjon said:
Mountain Peak doesn't go
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As I said at the time, it was always a possibility so big bet though it was there's no harm done and better to get the money back than lose it because of the ground, which I was hoping might dry out a wee bit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tuesday, Goodwood 1.40 - Mountain Peak 33/1, 4 places, BOG - I've gone in unusually heavily with this one. I mentioned it on this thread ahead of its most recent engagement at Ascot a couple of weeks back but they took it out due to the soft ground. It's good to soft at the moment and they could take it out again, so no harm done if they do, but there isn't much rain forecast and they might let it take its chance. There's always the chance the draw will be against it but that's a risk I'm prepared to take for now. I probably should have checked back videos of this race when there's some juice in the ground but the die is cast; I'm already on. I will make that check and edit the post accordingly. One thing I'm fairly certain of is that if the horse turns up and runs his race and isn't inconvenienced by the draw, he wins. End of.

Edit - the stalls are in the centre for this race whereas in the last runnings they've been nearside and Lord Riddiford (my other bet, 9/1) has won from a low draw (away from the rail), so the ba's still up on the slates.
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With MP out, I was going to just stick with Lord Riddiford and I'm happy to have beaten the market with that one but Acklam Express 20/1, 5 places, BOG, is also over-priced, I reckon. He was only beaten a head for the runner-up spot in last year's King's Stand and is a CD winner. Some disappointing form requires forgiving but he'd be joint-top on RPRs on that King's Stand run.
 
They sometimes come back from Dubai a bit jaded and need more of a break, which in this case might give valid reasons for the first two runs back (and makes our price, I think). Has had a little break again for this, and on the first of the two winter Meydan runs (also off a medium-size break), I'd suggest he potentially wins this handsomely, with Existent a worry. But Existent has only 3 days since rearing badly at the start at Ascot. Wasn't given a hard race, though, and coasted home, so the 3 days might not be a problem. Also, the tongue tie is missing and replaced with hp combination first time. Hard to tell what that's going to do.
 
Desert Orchid said:
With MP out, I was going to just stick with Lord Riddiford...
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9/1 will do fine (might be a R4 but should get at least 8s) and probably covers the first two days' punting because I'm not betting too much tomorrow and nice just to get on the board straight away. Anyone who backed Designer can count themselves unlucky not to have finished a clear second.
 
Desert Orchid said:
9/1 will do fine (might be a R4 but should get at least 8s) and probably covers the first two days' punting because I'm not betting too much tomorrow and nice just to get on the board straight away. Anyone who backed Designer can count themselves unlucky not to have finished a clear second.
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Well done with LR.lower than its 2 previous wins.happy enough with 3rd.yes Designer was a bit unlucky.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood 2.50 - Ancient Rome 33/1, 5 places - was only a head behind the winner Angel Bleu in the G1 Critérium de Saint-Cloud for Coolmore as a juvenile but appears to have gone backwards. Fabre has run him twice in the new colours (the Hays, who like winners here and they like Spencer to ride them) but now he’s with Hills. He was on my radar when I did the race on Sunday but he was only 14s tops then. A return to anywhere near his best could make those odds look very generous.
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:lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood 2.50 - Ancient Rome 33/1, 5 places - was only a head behind the winner Angel Bleu in the G1 Critérium de Saint-Cloud for Coolmore as a juvenile but appears to have gone backwards. Fabre has run him twice in the new colours (the Hays, who like winners here and they like Spencer to ride them) but now he’s with Hills. He was on my radar when I did the race on Sunday but he was only 14s tops then. A return to anywhere near his best could make those odds look very generous.
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Very very nice very very well done.
 
Indeed! Been in my tracker a long while! And it’s rare for me to stick one up in advance. I clocked him as a two year old and thought he was going to be very decent. Apart from a fourth in the French Guineas, he’s not shown anything like this. But he’s very classy and better than a handicapper. Brilliant ride from an outside draw there too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood 2.50 - Ancient Rome 33/1, 5 places - was only a head behind the winner Angel Bleu in the G1 Critérium de Saint-Cloud for Coolmore as a juvenile but appears to have gone backwards. Fabre has run him twice in the new colours (the Hays, who like winners here and they like Spencer to ride them) but now he’s with Hills. He was on my radar when I did the race on Sunday but he was only 14s tops then. A return to anywhere near his best could make those odds look very generous.
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Just in & checked my balance - many thanks DO:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
Thursday, 1.50, two outsiders are carrying some of today's winnings.

Coco Jack 40/1, 5 places - He started the season on 96 and ran very well at Musselburgh from the front in a decent race won by Lion Of War who was subsequently very unlucky not to win at Ascot. Coco Jack ran in that Ascot race and, as at the July Meeting the next time, ran better than the bare form. He probably doesn’t have the profile to win a race of this nature but his price is probably at least twice what it should be. Atzeni looks a significant booking and the horse is blinkered for the first time. I half-expect him to try and win from a forward position from his inside draw.

Finn's Charm 40/1, 5 places, BOG - He looked to have improved a huge amount into this season first time up and this operation are not averse to putting them away for months for a race here. They did it with Killybegs Warrior at the July Meeting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And jinnyj doesn't have to aftertime it :lol:
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But I’m going to this time.....I stuck a little on Choisya as it had run well here before and I thought you can often throw out a bad run at Ascot due to being on wrong side...I took 18s.....:lol: Lovely day!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, Goodwood 1.50 - Clan Chieftain 20/1, 4 places - certainly not my main bet in the race but he's owned by the Hays who like to have winners here. He beat an odds-on shot first time up and that one went on to win. Clan Chieftain himself was well beaten at odds-on next time but the winner of that race was well behind him the time before so with wind surgery having been done since then it’s probably safe to assume that wasn’t his form.
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I've ended up mob-handed in this race but the best odds combine at an acceptable percentage. Two other outsiders for the thread I've backed are:

Alumnus 25/1, 4 places, BOG, and Cool Party 66/1 ditto.

Both are Johnston horses, reason enough to back them in a race of this nature, but Alumnus is third-top in my ratings table and by a French-bred sire so might well take to the softer ground. Franny Norton rides. Cool Party has been disappointing but he was thought good enough to run in the London Gold Cup, is visored for the first time and is 6lbs lower than at Newbury. I did back him at the weekend (1m6f) and I thought he was given an easy time of it once headed after making the running until turning for home.

Backing several in a race won't sit comfortably with many people but it does for me and I'm not recommending anyone follows me in.
 
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