The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Ascot 2.45 - Kitsune Power 22/1, 4 places, BOG - a bit in and out but an overall improver and has had excuses the last twice. First time blinkers today and overpriced on my figures.

Also

Ascot 3.20 - Freescape 45/1, 4 places (B365) - a wide-margin winner at Dundalk last back-end off 104, going up to 109 for his troubles. His season so far could be about getting his mark down (102 here) although I would be more convinced that the Cambridgeshire is the plan. He was only 16s when I did the race on Thursday but the big drift has tempted me in.
 
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Ripon, GSW - Hyperfocus 25/1, 6 places - shouldn't beat Gulliver if that one is trying but has the beating of everything else among those drawn high, and acts well on this track. It's hard to see this one not getting a place at worst.
 
Newbury 1.50 - Enemy 20/1 - this is often a dodgy race but I have this one only 1lb off the top of my ratings so seems too big anyway but I'm really just hoping he's up against some non-triers and a place at least might fall into his lap.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ripon, GSW - Hyperfocus 25/1, 6 places - shouldn't beat Gulliver if that one is trying but has the beating of everything else among those drawn high, and acts well on this track. It's hard to see this one not getting a place at worst.
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Looking good now D. Into 10/1
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 1.50 - Enemy 20/1 - this is often a dodgy race but I have this one only 1lb off the top of my ratings so seems too big anyway but I'm really just hoping he's up against some non-triers and a place at least might fall into his lap.
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NR
 
Got to feel for backers of Summerghand there (I decided against). Tudhope was a shade over-confident and probably didn't expect the winner to keep on as well as it did. They were miles clear on their side. The winner's jockey also seemed to be a tad over-confident and had to react late when Summerghand surged. Got away with it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Got to feel for backers of Summerghand there (I decided against). Tudhope was a shade over-confident and probably didn't expect the winner to keep on as well as it did. They were miles clear on their side. The winner's jockey also seemed to be a tad over-confident and had to react late when Summerghand surged. Got away with it.
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I left it today but it was trying.
 
Wednesday, York, 1.50 - One Night Stand 50/1, 6 places, Hills. They've gone out on a bit of a limb with this one - maybe they know something - but it hasn't put me off a bet. I look like being out all day tomorrow so not in a position to follow the market therefore wanted on early. Notwithstanding the presence of the likes of Bergerac, Alligator Alley, Nomadic Empire, etc, all of which are interesting, I'm getting quite excited about this bet. Rated 97 early last season, he beat Mondammej in a Listed race at Lingfield (5f) and is 3lbs better off here. Three runs ago he was a close fifth at 66/1, beaten only 1¼ lengths, in the Epsom Dash, keeping on well after flying from the gates and probably overdoing the pace at the sharp end. He stays six furlongs so should be able to make just about all from a good draw if the jockey can get the fractions right off 5lbs lower than at Epsom and 10lbs lower than last season.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York, 1.50 - One Night Stand 50/1, 6 places, Hills. They've gone out on a bit of a limb with this one - maybe they know something - but it hasn't put me off a bet. I look like being out all day tomorrow so not in a position to follow the market therefore wanted on early. Notwithstanding the presence of the likes of Bergerac, Alligator Alley, Nomadic Empire,
I .
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I've done BERGERAC 25s,NOMADIC EMPIRE 18s and Alligator alley 12s.

And on saturday,if they run.
Tabdeed 33s
Summerghand 8/1
Mr wagyu 12s
 
Get Shirty (20WH, 33 most others) and Caius Chorister (33 WH and B3, 25 others) look the two at bigger prices for the Ebor.

Get Shirty (np prizes for originality!) - Clearly laid out and yard will likely be aware this is his (probably) last and (possibly) best chance ever to win an Ebor. 'Trademark' 'awkward at start' (you gotta be kiddin me!) last time in the York Group 3. Can't work out what happened before that at Ascot, but it's not hard to take a swinging guess.

CC - Proven over CD against Soulcombe in last years Melrose. May well have strengthened up with another year on her back. (Soulcombe sold after to Chris Waller and subsequently won a Flemington Group 3)


Confidence would have been higher if Sweet William hadn't got in, ofc.
 
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Someone on here must have the story behind the same trainer scoring a 200/1 winner and a 200/1 third tonight at Roscommon.
 
simmo said:
Someone on here must have the story behind the same trainer scoring a 200/1 winner and a 200/1 third tonight at Roscommon.
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There was a photo on Irish Racing of a woman with a winning ticket and the winning jockey.Betfair sp was 982.100 for a place.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York, 1.50 - One Night Stand 50/1, 6 places, Hills. They've gone out on a bit of a limb with this one - maybe they know something - but it hasn't put me off a bet. I look like being out all day tomorrow so not in a position to follow the market therefore wanted on early. Notwithstanding the presence of the likes of Bergerac, Alligator Alley, Nomadic Empire, etc, all of which are interesting, I'm getting quite excited about this bet. Rated 97 early last season, he beat Mondammej in a Listed race at Lingfield (5f) and is 3lbs better off here. Three runs ago he was a close fifth at 66/1, beaten only 1¼ lengths, in the Epsom Dash, keeping on well after flying from the gates and probably overdoing the pace at the sharp end. He stays six furlongs so should be able to make just about all from a good draw if the jockey can get the fractions right off 5lbs lower than at Epsom and 10lbs lower than last season.
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Blue in a few places this morning (and Bergerac is blue across the board) but another I've taken is Michaela's Boy 25/1, 6 places (B365). He's only 2lbs off the top on this season's figures [mine], I have him as progressive and young Larson, his usual rider couldn't claim in non-handicaps before. The horse took his form to a new level under Jason Hart at the Curragh and was probably roughed off a bit between that and a pipe-opener in the Shergar Cup race. The trainer is a proper shrewdie but the main reason I want the horse onside is that 3yos have slaughtered older horses in some sprint handicaps in the last few weeks and their general level might be under-estimated. I'm happy to pay to find out.
 
Charging Thunder is weak so confidence is dented.

I've taken Green Team 25/1 5 places as back-up.
 
Not happy. CT and the Grappo horse were badly placed through the race and found their runs flattening out in the final furlong after having too much to do against a pace that wasn't slowing.

If CT gets fifth I will consider myself quite lucky but unlucky at the same time.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Not happy. CT and the Grappo horse were badly placed through the race and found their runs flattening out in the final furlong after having too much to do against a pace that wasn't slowing.

If CT gets fifth I will consider myself quite lucky but unlucky at the same time.
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Unfortunately for me I only got 4 places.
 
Confirmed fifth by a short-head despite the ride and losing its action in the last half-furlong.

I can't help thinking that's one that got away but maybe Tudhope was under instructions to let the horse lob around early.

The place return at least covers a fair chunk of the O'Meara multiples but the fifth place doesn't count for them either either so I'm down to a potential win double with the Clipper horses and Get Shirty and maybe a place treble.

Probably not the cleverest bet in the world but AA was unlucky and CT badly ridden. Couldabin a whole lot different...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Confirmed fifth by a short-head despite the ride and losing its action in the last half-furlong.

I can't help thinking that's one that got away but maybe Tudhope was under instructions to let the horse lob around early.

The place return at least covers a fair chunk of the O'Meara multiples but the fifth place doesn't count for them either either so I'm down to a potential win double with the Clipper horses and Get Shirty and maybe a place treble.

Probably not the cleverest bet in the world but AA was unlucky and CT badly ridden. Couldabin a whole lot different...
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I think CT was ridden to get the trip as he hasnt gone that far before.
I dont think there is anything with that Omeara bet.i e done a similar one.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Joined you. I backed it in the Hunt Cup and Golden Mile so it was always going to be on my radar.
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Badly drawn at ascot and goodwood but ran on well both times.
The only trouble is the hcapper has dropped him a few pounds.so he could be borderline getting in.ran a cracking 3rd last year when again badly drawn .off 87 now(91 last year)
 
5.20 York Thurs

Dubai Jemila (Dubawi, out of a Group 3 level mare - 66 WH, 50 others) and Misty Blues (Expert Eye, out of a 6f Listed/Group 3 mare - 66 generally) - both would appear to have significant-enough chances of outrunning odds.

Misty, mainly on the run at this meeting last year as a 2YO. Plus one or two other bits of form.

DJ - Well Kevin Ryan hit form in no uncertain terms today (including a massive, heart stopping run from a Ten Sovereigns filly on 2nd run at 100-1, she fought hard and looked like winning it for a long, long way). KR tried DJ in a Group 3 last autumn, and the Nell Gwyn first time up this year. Could be this is really her level, and possible she was still learning/ran a bit free early on in the York mile handicap last run.

€347,000 in March 22. They'll want to recover some of that!

Neil Callan up, hardly a handicap (and may well be going for the Darkness - Dubai J double).

My instinct says she might really want 10f, but let's assume KR doesn't think so, and he's wildly better placed to know.
 
1.50 Lowther Gunzberg 40PP and BF, 33 others

Paddy Twomey will rate the chances of Rosscarbery in the Yorkshire Oaks, but I doubt he's sending Gunzberg over to the Lowther just as a travelling companion. Had a winner with Treasure Trove at this meeting last year. Twice beaten by Matrika, incl a Group 2. Prob unsuited by soft last time when well beaten. The York 6f on fast ground may be just right if they go quick, and P1 might help, too. 33-1 looks a little big.
 
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