The 2023 Longshot Thread

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No tie to give a reason so soon before the race but JC-H often has outsiders run well at the big meetings. This one was unlucky not to get fourth, knocked out of its stride late in the day when in the mix for third and the jockey gave up.
 
The going could be a concern and he fact its had 3 runs in 3 weeks but BOPEDRO 25/1 golden Mile has tempted me.
Has been running better than his finishing positions imo.

Could be one for the Balmoral later in the year.
 
From the ones to note thread, this one came through on my tracker for tomorrow, Goodwood 4.45. I've taken 33/1, 6 places.

Desert Orchid said:
Wildfell (Peter Chapple-Hyam) - won a string of very low level races for a lowly mark of 73 but then Pitched in against good 100+ types in a Listed at the July Meeting. Finished last but only just over ten lengths behind the impressive winner Nostrum. Raised 9lbs to 82 but you could make a case for that being lenient. Interesting to see where the trainer goes next with it.
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No idea if this is 'the plan' but can't not back it.
 
Friday, 1.50 - has anyone 'of influence' put up The Grand Visir or Vino Victrix? They are two of my three against the field but were 25s and 33s respectively earlier today. They've both been cut, especially VV, and I've had to scramble for 20s each.
 
Tabdeed hasn't been declared for the Stewards' Cup, which is a bit of a disappointment. Hollie Doyle goes to Newmarket for a clutch of rides for different trainers and one of her rides is for the owners of Nashwa. Do they have a retainer on her?

I'm now wondering if Summerghand will be trying in the race. Tudhope is at Thirsk on Saturday. O'Meara now has only two in the race, with Aberama Gold getting in further down the weights.
 
Goodwood 3.00 - Burdett Road 25/1, BOG - only two places, though. I took 18/1 when the final decs came out thinking that was generous so I've gone in again. I've also taken 16/1 ew to 3 places and 18/1 ew 2 places in the market without the favourite, so it's ended up a reasonably heavy commitment overall. I liked the way this one did the biz at Ascot despite racing three wide the whole way. Favourite Espionage didn’t need to be anywhere near his best to win on his reappearance but is likely to come on a lot for it. I wouldn’t be surprised if he still isn’t properly cooked since the St Leger is probably where he’s headed and they’ll probably have him peaking by then. I prefer BR's profile to the rest of the field but the drift is a wee negative.
 
Saturday, Goodwood 2.25 - Euchen Glen 25/1, 4 places, BOG - the old boy has become a cliff horse for me this season but the first time he's allowed to show his form he will hack up. He'll probably need a penalty to get into the Ebor [#36 on the list, 22 max] so they might as well pick up over £50k for their troubles here.
 
Desert Orchid said:
From the ones to note thread, this one came through on my tracker for tomorrow, Goodwood 4.45. I've taken 33/1, 6 places.



No idea if this is 'the plan' but can't not back it.
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Wildfell 28/1 second - that will have cheered you up a bit, desert. Could have won it with a clear run
 
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Well done with Wildfell D.a few hard luck stories in that race.

Metal merchant had no luck back in 5th.into my alerts.
 
Completely forgot about that race and only just realised five minutes ago when I got in from my acupuncture session and watched the replay. Did nothing wrong bar maybe going 50yds too soon but the fav overcame a lot of trouble and was value for a much wider margin of victory. Mine was trying and that's all I'll ever ask.
 
A couple to start with...

1.50 - Arabescato 66/1, 6 places, BOG - a stone 'wrong' here but wasn’t beaten far (fourth at 80/1) in this race last year off a pound higher. The ground might level the field a fair bit. (I mentioned my top two the other day. When I did my figures they were 25s (The Grand Visir) and 33s (Vino Victrix) but I wanted to hold off until all the terms and odds were up before committing, so I was gobsmacked when their odds had been slashed. I did manage to get 20s about each but I can't claim them for the thread now.)

2.25 - Montesilvano 33/1, 2 places, w/o Nostrum - why would Joseph send one over here for its seasonal debut with a first-time tongue tie? Curiosity got the better of me with this one.

3.00 - Dual Identity 50/1, 6 places, BOG - top on my ratings so can't not back it. 'Won' his side in the Cambridgeshire, five lengths clear, off 2lbs higher. Questions about the ground but maybe not so much about the wide draw since high draws won six in a row from 2003 to 2008.

More to follow...
 
Stewards' Cup - Good Earth 50/1, 6 places - He strikes me as the only obvious curve horse in the race and the jockey has an excellent record for the trainer. I was prepared to wait until tomorrow to see if 50s came up but it has done so with B365. I can go in again tomorrow if it drifts further and the BOGs kick in. By no means my strongest fancy for the race - for them I’m sticking with the theme of older form ‘suddenly being rediscovered’.
 
Stewards cup.

TACTICAL 33/1
MAKINAH 33/1

To go with MR WAGYU.

My 3 against the field.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Stewards' Cup - Good Earth 50/1, 6 places - He strikes me as the only obvious curve horse in the race and the jockey has an excellent record for the trainer. I was prepared to wait until tomorrow to see if 50s came up but it has done so with B365. I can go in again tomorrow if it drifts further and the BOGs kick in. By no means my strongest fancy for the race - for them I’m sticking with the theme of older form ‘suddenly being rediscovered’.
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200 available on Betfair.
 
Yes (and I've nibbled) but that's the win-only price. Sky are going 8 places so my plan is to hold off until nearer the race to see if all the books drift to the current 80s and then back it at SP rather than Sky's reduced fixed price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Goodwood 2.25 - Euchen Glen 25/1, 4 places, BOG - the old boy has become a cliff horse for me this season but the first time he's allowed to show his form he will hack up. He'll probably need a penalty to get into the Ebor [#36 on the list, 22 max] so they might as well pick up over £50k for their troubles here.
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Ran well, looked to be trying for the first time this season but maybe the ground wasn't idea. There will be R4s, I think, but it's a fair return. I also backed Torcello (my joint-top with EG) so a further wee return. Better than losing.
 
ZAGHRAF 250 N 40/1

The first race he ran I put him in my alerts. Never finished closer than 6th.has run over hurdles and last flat run was over 1m 2f and surprisingly it was 5/1 fav and finished 15/17 but was still amongst the leader 3 out.
Drops back to 6f tomorrow.drawn very high and I dont know if that is good or bad.
Got to give it a go at that price.
Used to be trained by Denis Hogan.
Started its first hcap on 67 now off 49 with a 2lb claimer on.
 
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System 2.25 Hay Saturday 28-1 WH (boost to about 31) 25 most others 28 Skybet 6p

Would have needed the run badly at Goodwood on the 1st Aug (first run for a year). Ground may well have been on the soft side for her, but looked to be handling it when two or three hefty bumps 2-3 furlongs out knocked her off stride and any chance of further progress was gone. Eased right off at that point. Was nibbled at big prices for that in the morning of the race.

Has some nice enough biggish handicap form from last year on good/good to firm. Assuming it was the bumps + layoff + too soft ground that combined to finish her at Goodwood, the likely GS at Haydock shouldn't give too many worries. Though clearly faster ground would give most confidence. Should be dry today, risk of showers tomorrow and that could be a concern if getting too heavy.

Reportedly been going well in training since the Goodwood race.

At first glance, the booking of Hector Crouch slightly worried me (Sean Levey rides Dawn of Liberation, who we also won't be surprised to see run well), but HC's record at Haydock is actually pretty hot.

Yard has had plenty enough win or run well in recent weeks, as you'd normally expect.


**edit 6.30pm** Now 33-1 BF Sportsbook Ground does look good, a very small amount kicking up but not particularly notable. Should be good by tomorrow afternoon and can take a few mm between now and then with (most likely) no noticeable effect.
 
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It would be easy to say the draw did him, Outsider. But Declan Carroll's got up from stall 2. I think the ground was softer than he likes. Worth another go on a faster surface, and should get the big odds again.
 
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