The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 3.00 - Audience, 25/1, 4 places - I think this price mindbogglingly generous. He was impressive on his delayed return and possibly bounced at Goodwood, the ground probably not helping anyway. I’m happy to put a line through that. Take that run out and he'd be a single-figure price. Sacred has the same OR yet is 4/1 second-fav.
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Until a few minutes ago I only knew the result and was pleased enough to have got second.

I've now watched the replay and would invite the opinions of the seasoned/expert observers on here.

Firstly, it looked to me like Audience's ears were all over the place coming up the straight and his head carriage slightly high. I notice he was wearing a hood. Would different headgear help? Could it be that he was dossing in front or maybe just green?

Secondly, SR said the other day that the finishing par for York is around 104% and the sectional data have him on 102% with Kinross on 103% and closest to par of the entire field. Has Frankie just proven he is better at judging the pace than Havlin? If Audience does get a mark-up, it will probably only be a pound, if that, so unlikely to suggest he should have won but I'm just curious about this stuff.
 
Sprint Cup - Rohaan 40/1 3pl / 33/1 4 pl - firstly, I don't think Khaadem should be 20/1 and I'm still thinking of backing him but I've watched Rohaan a few times this season and got the impression all the ability is still there waiting to be properly unleashed. This wouldn't be his best chance of the win, obviously, since the fav will be very hard to beat but I've also taken him at 20/1 (5pl) for the Ayr Gold Cup. A penalty for winning this would be no great hindrance to his chances and a big run will see his price shorten to single figures anyway, possibly even in to favouritism. I also think there might be value in the market without Shaq but I'm pressed for time and want to focus on sorting other races.
 
DO will be shocked and saddened to know I agree on Khaadem. His price will drift now surely. The jinx is on. Him and Run To Freedom for me. No surprise if Shaquille wins but I fear he may blow it at the start, which he might not get away with today.
 
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It's hard to see her winning but Sea Silk Road is worth a go in the Vermeille. Blue Rose Cen is not a guaranteed stayer and the Haggas filly ran well in the Yorkshire Oaks where she was in rear throughout. Finished her race well and decent ground will suit. 20/1
 
Yes, I'm afraid the apprentice gave it a very amateurish tactical ride (which was probably to orders).
 
Doncaster 3.00. Pogo E/W was too good a horse the past season or two to be totally discounting him here.

He's done most his racing on good or better ground in his career, but he has shown he can act on soft ground, although he hasn't raced on it that often. He might actually handle it better than one or two others though. His trainer Charles Hills says he will keep an eye on the ground and won't run him if it gets too soft which is fair enough. Let's see what the weather gods do.

He's been good to me more than once in his career thus far, and if anyone can turn around this poor run he's on, it might just be him.

Good luck all over the weekend.
 
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Good luck,Marb - CoC reckoned it would be g/s on the straight course tomorrow (ATR today), and today's times support that view.
 
Cheers Reet. Good to soft would probably do nicely for Badri in the Portland aswell. Fingers crossed for Gd-St then.

Sticking the two above in the each way yankee and hope for the best!

Stay away rain eh.
 
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St Leger - Alexandropoulis 25/1, 4 places (Sky) - First time up back in the spring he was odds-on for the Ballysax so was presumably pretty highly regarded at the time. The winner, White Birch, subsequently beat Continuous in the Dante before running third in the Derby. For me, Alexandropoulis was ‘looked after’ on his recent comeback run and I anticipate massive improvement here. Whether he can improve past the market leaders is another matter but I don’t think he’s really a 28/1 shot. (I've also taken 18/1, three places, without Continuous.)

Portland - Hurricane Ivor 20/1, 6pl, BOG - won this two years ago off 102 for William Haggas, following up a week later in a G3 at Newbury and has since been banging his head off a brick wall with his mark. Moved to Harrington this season, he was a close third in May off 101 in a decent race at the Curragh. The Irish handicapper is much quicker to drop horses for poor runs and the horse would be chucked in here on this season’s form let alone his older form. (I've actually taken 18/1, 7 places no BOG,)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
St Leger - Alexandropoulis 25/1, 4 places (Sky) - First time up back in the spring he was odds-on for the Ballysax so was presumably pretty highly regarded at the time. The winner, White Birch, subsequently beat Continuous in the Dante before running third in the Derby. For me, Alexandropoulis was ‘looked after’ on his recent comeback run and I anticipate massive improvement here. Whether he can improve past the market leaders is another matter but I don’t think he’s really a 28/1 shot. (I've also taken 18/1, three places, without Continuous.)
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Alex has been pushed out to 40s in places so I've taken that as well, plus a 10% boost, plus BOG.
 
The least said about Alexandroupolis the better...

Ayr Gold Cup

Desert Cop 50/1, 7 places - see recent post on the ante-post thread.

Mondammej 100/1, 6 places, BOG - generally regarded as a 5f horse but one of his top four performances was over 6f early last season. He's been out of form but that's seen his mark fall from 104 last summer to 94 here. Maybe he just doesn't have the pace for 5f any more. They ran him over 6f the time before last and it doesn't seem to have put them off running him over it again.
 
wilsonl said:
Backed him yesterday at 28s. “Won” his race on the far side last year and having since been switched to O’meara is running off a 15lb lower mark this year allowing for the 5lb claim.
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2021, last year Dual Identity 'won' on his side.
 
I'll be mob-handed in the Cambs [as per] but hopefully sneaking this one under the wire before the price goes...

Akhu Najla 28/1, 6 places, BOG - I don't I'll need the BOG as it appears to be attracting money across the board. I put it up on its seasonal return not too long back but it disappointed both then and subsequently. If this has been the plan all along then I'm happy to stick with it for the same reasons as back then.
 
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William Pyle rides Faylaq, George Rooke on Geremia (never ridden for Goldie before that I can see). Suggests JG might be leaning more towards Faylaq. I can't see it happening over this distance, on this ground, and against this competition. But my £1 handicap will be on just in case.
 
Balmoral Handicap (next month) - Enfjaar 20/1, 5 places - I've taken the price in anticipation of an easy win at Haydock tomorrow as he'll probably need the penalty for Ascot. He was only 13/2 for the Jersey last time out so is clearly thought some way better than 98.
 
Enfjaar Don't normally take too much stock of stats like this...because others runners are there to confound them and the overall context is what counts...but...Roger Varian, last 5 years, 3YO's making first handicap start in Sept or later - 9 wins, 3 places from 18 (stats courtesy of Ben Aitken). Reasonably encouraging figures, though 6 out of 18 unplaced suggests you wouldn't want to be taking low single figures about tomorrow's race. Encouraging, on the face of it, for Ascot at a bigger price though (depending on how it goes tomorrow).
 
chaumi said:
Enfjaar Don't normally take too much stock of stats like this...because others runners are there to confound them and the overall context is what counts...but...Roger Varian, last 5 years, 3YO's making first handicap start in Sept or later - 9 wins, 3 places from 18 (stats courtesy of Ben Aitken). Reasonably encouraging figures, though 6 out of 18 unplaced suggests you wouldn't want to be taking low single figures about tomorrow's race. Encouraging, on the face of it, for Ascot at a bigger price though (depending on how it goes tomorrow).
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As you know, chaumi, I'm not into stats (although I quite like to see well researched ones) but 6/18 unplaced sounds a positive to me but nowhere near as much as 50% winners. I'm very encouraged by that. I like RV a lot as a trainer (and even more as a man since I was told about his own life story). I know people who would interpret that stat as a case for Enfjaar being an even money shot.
 
At Vimeiro had his first run at Doncaster 2 weeks where he stayed on well in the final furlong to finish 5th.Took some pulling up that day.Reappears tomorrow in the Royal Lodge. Trained by JCH and ridden by Soumillion he will not fail for lack of stamina.A sporting each way bet at 25/1.
 
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