The 2023 Longshot Thread

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chaumi said:
5.20 York Thurs

Dubai Jemila (Dubawi, out of a Group 3 level mare - 66 WH, 50 others) and Misty Blues (Expert Eye, out of a 6f Listed/Group 3 mare - 66 generally) - both would appear to have significant-enough chances of outrunning odds.

Misty, mainly on the run at this meeting last year as a 2YO. Plus one or two other bits of form.

DJ - Well Kevin Ryan hit form in no uncertain terms today (including a massive, heart stopping run from a Ten Sovereigns filly on 2nd run at 100-1, she fought hard and looked like winning it for a long, long way). KR tried DJ in a Group 3 last autumn, and the Nell Gwyn first time up this year. Could be this is really her level, and possible she was still learning/ran a bit free early on in the York mile handicap last run.

€347,000 in March 22. They'll want to recover some of that!

Neil Callan up, hardly a handicap (and may well be going for the Darkness - Dubai J double).

My instinct says she might really want 10f, but let's assume KR doesn't think so, and he's wildly better placed to know.
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I didn't even look at that race (runners rated too low) so will back both these because I like your argument but your post made me look again. I had to do a double-take when I saw Sophia's Starlight in there under a penalty for winning the GSW the other day. Reappearing so soon has its risks and many will be put off by the penalty and the extra furlong but she and Summerghand - a proper job beaten on the day - were miles clear on their side and I can't see the penalty stopping her, assuming she's over that. Not one for the thread but it's made me end up getting involved in a race I'd completely ignored!

The ew doubles with your other mensh might be worth speculating on to small stakes.

Edit - PS - you've caused DJ to go blue across the board and is 33s tops.
 
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Friday, Nunthorpe:

Khaadem 20/1, 5 places (Sky) - third top on my ratings and should get the very fast pace he's likely to need.

Aesop's Fables 33/1, 5 places (Sky, 40s elsewhere to fewer places) - holds entries in all the big G1 sprints but hasn't raced for over three months. I'm guessing this one is showing a lot of improvement at home and I can't see 'the lads' letting go off at such long odds.
 
Friday, York 5.15 - not a race in which to be getting heavily involved but I've taken two potential bandits (the race is full of them) against the field:

Catch The Paddy 20/1, 4 places - likely to improve a bit for stepping up to this trip.

Alzahir 22/1, 4 places - runs for O’Meara for the first time, is partly owned by Clipper Logistics and won a huge pot in the Middle East earlier in the year before taking in the Kentucky Derby trial races on the all-weather for the Gosdens. Did word reach Yorkshire that they were lining up this horse for this race? If it were running in the colours of Clipper Logistics the chances are the odds would be shorter. Tudhope rides.
 
Saturday, York 3.00 - Audience, 25/1, 4 places - I think this price mindbogglingly generous. He was impressive on his delayed return and possibly bounced at Goodwood, the ground probably not helping anyway. I’m happy to put a line through that. Take that run out and he'd be a single-figure price. Sacred has the same OR yet is 4/1 second-fav.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 3.00 - Audience, 25/1, 4 places - I think this price mindbogglingly generous. He was impressive on his delayed return and possibly bounced at Goodwood, the ground probably not helping anyway. I’m happy to put a line through that. Take that run out and he'd be a single-figure price. Sacred has the same OR yet is 4/1 second-fav.
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Your in box is full again.
 
Ebor

Outsider and I have already sung the praises of Get Shirty and Euchen Glen but I'm backing another couple of longshots in the race.

First up is Ocean Wind at 50/1, 5 places, BOG (Corals) - was a 112 improver two years back, running Stradivarius to a length at Sandown.

Caius Chorister 33/1, 6 places - I think David Menuisier is a genius so Caius Chorister is a must bet for me. I said last time when the filly was dropped back to ten furlongs at Goodwood I suspected it was a prep for this as her best form is over further. 'Unknown' jockey Kyle Strydom is a former South African champion apprentice so I'm comfortable enough with that booking.

Cemhaan 33/1, 6 places - lightly raced and on a curve. I expected him to be around the 10/1 mark.

There might be one more. I'm monitoring the market.
 
Saturday, York 5.20 - Masekela 25/1, 5 places BOG - He was rated 108 last year after his decent Derby run and later was a good fourth in the Strensall at this meeting. He’s been disappointing this season but comes back after two months off, his wind having been tweaked in June and with cheekpieces on for the first time. He’s come right down the ratings (93 here) and Hutchinson takes off another three. The yard is in great form, they target this meeting and the horse will be ridden prominently.

(Not my only longshot in the race.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ebor

Outsider and I have already sung the praises of Get Shirty and Euchen Glen but I'm backing another couple of longshots in the race.

First up is Ocean Wind at 50/1, 5 places, BOG (Corals) - was a 112 improver two years back, running Stradivarius to a length at Sandown.

Caius Chorister 33/1, 6 places - I think David Menuisier is a genius so Caius Chorister is a must bet for me. I said last time when the filly was dropped back to ten furlongs at Goodwood I suspected it was a prep for this as her best form is over further. 'Unknown' jockey Kyle Strydom is a former South African champion apprentice so I'm comfortable enough with that booking.

Cemhaan 33/1, 6 places - lightly raced and on a curve. I expected him to be around the 10/1 mark.

There might be one more. I'm monitoring the market.
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Dave Nevison has put caius chorister up on sporting life .
I think I will join you on Cemhaan as it's in my alerts from last year.

In the 410 I've had a couple of win bets on
Tactical 40
Anthem national 50
AN was 2nd to Commanche falls last time and got put up 10lb for that but as CF is now rated 112+ AN could well be well in off 105
And I like Paul Mulrennan in sprints.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, York 5.15 - not a race in which to be getting heavily involved but I've taken two potential bandits (the race is full of them) against the field:

Catch The Paddy 20/1, 4 places - likely to improve a bit for stepping up to this trip.

Alzahir 22/1, 4 places - runs for O’Meara for the first time, is partly owned by Clipper Logistics and won a huge pot in the Middle East earlier in the year before taking in the Kentucky Derby trial races on the all-weather for the Gosdens. Did word reach Yorkshire that they were lining up this horse for this race? If it were running in the colours of Clipper Logistics the chances are the odds would be shorter. Tudhope rides.
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CTP second at 15/2 so at least I smashed the SP. Covered both bets and a couple of other longshot losers.
 
A real long shot tomorrow for me is Innse Gal in the 5.20. It looks to me like he's been a work in progress for a while and very interesting that his trainer Iain Jardine now decides to have a crack at a prize pot like this. He's ultra consistent at a lower level, with a good win strike rate of 5/24 on turf. When he has won he's often looked like a horse who could step up in grade. Well he does step up tomorrow, with his lowly rating compensated by a nice weight concession from most of this field. The Gal is worth a go!
 
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York 2.25 - Edge Of Darkness 28/1, 4 places, BOG - market weakness is a concern since it was 10/1 on Thursday but it's on a roll and goes from the front so if I was prepared to back it at 10s I'm not going to let 28s go.

York 4.10 - King Of Bavaria 66/1, 6 places, BOG - again, weak (33s on Thursday) but third top on my ratings, the jockey takes another three off, which would take it clear on this season's form figures, so another I can't not back at the odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.25 - Edge Of Darkness 28/1, 4 places, BOG - market weakness is a concern since it was 10/1 on Thursday but it's on a roll and goes from the front so if I was prepared to back it at 10s I'm not going to let 28s go.
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Same here. A place will do at these prices. Good luck us.
 
Another for the Ebor (I know... I know...):

Saratoga Gold 80/1, 6 places, BOG - sits within 2lbs of the top on my ratings (top on RPRs), I have it as a +p type and Marquand has been released to take the ride. I assume he'd have been offered a few that are shorter in the betting. Marquand and Doyle (Cemhaan) both placing in the Ebor? How the ITV people would gush over that…
 
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My favourite race in the year ( or at least it used to be when it was ran on the Wednesday) and I haven’t had time to look at it ( on top of other house problems sewer pipe was blocked this morning so I lost a whole morning sorting it out). Anyways had a quick look and came up with Berkshire Rocco, Adjuvant, Wicky whose price qualifies for this thread but doesn’t qualify in any other way other than scoring quite well in my little system and I’d kick myself if I didn’t back it), Euchen Glen and Scampi. Berkshire Rocco does seem to race prominently so I’m quite hopeful. I used to like 5 year olds in this race, though but it’s a different race these days.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 3.00 - Audience, 25/1, 4 places - I think this price mindbogglingly generous. He was impressive on his delayed return and possibly bounced at Goodwood, the ground probably not helping anyway. I’m happy to put a line through that. Take that run out and he'd be a single-figure price. Sacred has the same OR yet is 4/1 second-fav.
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Good run good pick.well done D.
 
moehat said:
My favourite race in the year ( or at least it used to be when it was ran on the Wednesday) and I haven’t had time to look at it ( on top of other house problems sewer pipe was blocked this morning so I lost a whole morning sorting it out). Anyways had a quick look and came up with Berkshire Rocco, Adjuvant, Wicky whose price qualifies for this thread but doesn’t qualify in any other way other than scoring quite well in my little system and I’d kick myself if I didn’t back it), Euchen Glen and Scampi. Berkshire Rocco does seem to race prominently so I’m quite hopeful. I used to like 5 year olds in this race, though but it’s a different race these days.
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I think Adjuvant has a fan club of us two on here Moe, so good luck us!

I prey he settles. If he's too keen again today he will get tailed off.
 
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Is there still a draw bias in the Ebor? My notes said drawn 17 +. I do like Willie Mullins but I get so tired of him winning everything!
 
Marb said:
A real long shot tomorrow for me is Innse Gal in the 5.20. It looks to me like he's been a work in progress for a while and very interesting that his trainer Iain Jardine now decides to have a crack at a prize pot like this. He's ultra consistent at a lower level, with a good win strike rate of 5/24 on turf. When he has won he's often looked like a horse who could step up in grade. Well he does step up tomorrow, with his lowly rating compensated by a nice weight concession from most of this field. The Gal is worth a go!
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They're really shortening this one up now which is a good sign.

I can't tell if that's a real market move or because of the non runners though.
See how we go eh.
 
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Two longshot placings in the Ebor.

Old Euchen Glen, ridden more positively this time, and Caius Chorister. Probably enough back to more than cover all my bets in the race.
 
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