The 2023 Longshot Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
chaumi said:
Crikey, we're collectively on half the field in the Lanzarote. It looks just like a Coral Cup to me. Find the class and that might be the answer.
Click to expand...

I'll just be pleased if Camprond can finish in the first six and get a place.

I can't believe the price, has he lost a leg lol.

I can only think his recent chase form and big weight is seriously off putting for punters.
 
Last edited:
chaumi said:
Musaytir 12.40 Ling

Long-standing maiden so risks are pretty obvious. Was 40-1 about 15 mins ago but turning blue and 33-1 best atm. 40s in this field was fair, 33s just about tenable, anything less a no-go.

Visored first time might do the trick. Chances (I think) rest on getting out quickly and maybe 2-3 lengths clear of the bulk at the turn, and he might be able to hold on from there. If he doesn't get out, all evidence suggests it's over (though ofc the visor could change that). Now 5, if there is to be a 'peak', it should happen this year.

Was close to level with one other at the furlong pole and a couple of lengths clear over 7f at Ling a few races back, and ran well from the front in a Wolves 6f prior to that, only getting run out of the first three in the last 100. Nowhere near those two in the last 3 Wolves runs (which might indicate a break is needed).

Gina Mangan has ridden Musaytir from the front/prominently a couple of times and should know what to do.

Grace Harris stable had a 40-1 bumper winner with their last runner (a never-seen-before event, and can pretty much bet the mortgage it'll never happen again).
Click to expand...

Well done Chaumi nice one
 
chaumi said:
Musaytir 12.40 Ling

Long-standing maiden so risks are pretty obvious. Was 40-1 about 15 mins ago but turning blue and 33-1 best atm. 40s in this field was fair, 33s just about tenable, anything less a no-go.

Visored first time might do the trick. Chances (I think) rest on getting out quickly and maybe 2-3 lengths clear of the bulk at the turn, and he might be able to hold on from there. If he doesn't get out, all evidence suggests it's over (though ofc the visor could change that). Now 5, if there is to be a 'peak', it should happen this year.

Was close to level with one other at the furlong pole and a couple of lengths clear over 7f at Ling a few races back, and ran well from the front in a Wolves 6f prior to that, only getting run out of the first three in the last 100. Nowhere near those two in the last 3 Wolves runs (which might indicate a break is needed).

Gina Mangan has ridden Musaytir from the front/prominently a couple of times and should know what to do.

Grace Harris stable had a 40-1 bumper winner with their last runner (a never-seen-before event, and can pretty much bet the mortgage it'll never happen again).
Click to expand...
It's a cracker!:adore::adore:
Couldn't resist a small ew - @33/1.Bravo.
 
Good fun in the last 50 yards, won by an inch!! Maybe less. Didn't go quite as expected, but there was always a chance the visor could help with sustaining a finishing run. And it appeared to!
 
Eff me, wins by a nose, after the jockey drops her whip! We were clearly due this one! And backed into 11/1. Defeat was out of the question.
 
Last edited:
chaumi said:
Musaytir 12.40 Ling

Long-standing maiden so risks are pretty obvious. Was 40-1 about 15 mins ago but turning blue and 33-1 best atm. 40s in this field was fair, 33s just about tenable, anything less a no-go.

Visored first time might do the trick. Chances (I think) rest on getting out quickly and maybe 2-3 lengths clear of the bulk at the turn, and he might be able to hold on from there. If he doesn't get out, all evidence suggests it's over (though ofc the visor could change that). Now 5, if there is to be a 'peak', it should happen this year.

Was close to level with one other at the furlong pole and a couple of lengths clear over 7f at Ling a few races back, and ran well from the front in a Wolves 6f prior to that, only getting run out of the first three in the last 100. Nowhere near those two in the last 3 Wolves runs (which might indicate a break is needed).

Gina Mangan has ridden Musaytir from the front/prominently a couple of times and should know what to do.

Grace Harris stable had a 40-1 bumper winner with their last runner (a never-seen-before event, and can pretty much bet the mortgage it'll never happen again).
Click to expand...

Nice one.
 
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Brilliant, chaumi!

AW isn't my bag so I left it alone but thoroughly delighted for you (and the other forumites who backed it, and the thread itself!)
 
Well that serves me right for nodding off after I’d given the dog her breakfast and not checking the forum first (which I usually do). Well done chaumi!
 
Thx everyone. I'm super happy for everybody that took the chance.

**with a tinge of sadness for anyone that might have been asleep!**
 
Last edited:
chaumi said:
Thx everyone. I'm super happy for everybody that took the chance.

**with a tinge of sadness for anyone that might have been asleep!**
Click to expand...
I managed to back a couple of steamers later on. I probably wouldn’t have had racing radio on if I wasn’t licking my wounds about that one so you win some you lose some! It’s always good if one of us gets a big priced winner on here, though. It’s when we all miss it that it hurts.
 
50-1 on Grand Mogul appears illogical. I don't see anything from that Chepstow run that says he might not be able to get close enough to most of these if there are no stamina limitations, and the way he finished/ran at Chepstow didn't shout out non-stayer.
 
Did I hear the Warwick CoC say on TV this morning that there is a £100k bonus if today's Classic winner goes on to win the Aintree National (One For Arthur the only one to do the double in the same season)?

That has prompted me to go in again on my main bet Iwilldoit and I've taken 50/1 for the Grand National itself. A high-profile win will see him offered at no bigger than 20/1 regardless of the handicapper's reaction.
 
chaumi said:
50-1 on Grand Mogul appears illogical. I don't see anything from that Chepstow run that says he might not be able to get close enough to most of these if there are no stamina limitations, and the way he finished/ran at Chepstow didn't shout out non-stayer.
Click to expand...

PP going 50s and 5 places, BOG.
 
Red Risk 28/1 6 places b365...

Can be a bit inconsistent and does his best fresh, but he's had 7 weeks since his easy win and the claimer takes away his penalty. If Nichols has done his wizardry, ulcers, soft palate etc....
 
Yes, but I can't back 'em all...

Edit...

Having said that, I've just taken Shantou Express at 170w and 18pl on the exchange (tiny stakes, obviously). He's in the top five in my ratings table but is no spring chicken. However, sometimes I like older horses in heavy ground as the younger ones can give up easily. SE probably also prefers better ground but, hey, at those odds, why not.
 
Last edited:
Maxbet said:
Red Risk 28/1 6 places b365...

Can be a bit inconsistent and does his best fresh, but he's had 7 weeks since his easy win and the claimer takes away his penalty. If Nichols has done his wizardry, ulcers, soft palate etc....
Click to expand...

Unlucky there looked the winner all the way but Bridget Andrew’s got a great tune from the mare


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Outsider said:
Saturday Lanzarote hurdle 240k

UP FOR PAROL 22/1 6 places.

I had big hopes for this horse last year and it went tits up.i thought they were going to go Imperial cup/county hurdle but he never did a tap in the imperial and was pulled up.
Then didnt run at Cheltenham so my 50/1 a/p bet went up in smoke.
Ran well in this race last year and is 4lb lower.take out the winner and he wasnt beaten far.stable has been in form.
Click to expand...

Good run for my money.
 
Maxbet said:
Red Risk 28/1 6 places b365...

Can be a bit inconsistent and does his best fresh, but he's had 7 weeks since his easy win and the claimer takes away his penalty. If Nichols has done his wizardry, ulcers, soft palate etc....
Click to expand...

I feel your pain.
 
Crikey. They were paying first 6 but only 4 finished. Was hoping that I’d scraped a 6th place with something as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top