I may have an interesting one for the Melbourne Cup -
Virtuous Circle 100-1 plenty (although 66 WH and B3, + haven't looked at any Aussie bookies).
Not much more than 110 BF, with the risk ofc being he goes off 160+ on the day.
Two races mark him out in particular. Both where he ran from pretty much last a fair amount of the way.
1 mile Australian Guineas 4th March We know that top class Aussie horses can often mix it from 8f to 16f without turning a hair (they must have been studying Goldie tactics, or maybe he's been studying them!). But if you watch the race, VC was settled close to last. Off the home bend he was scrubbed to improve, but looked to me that he was outpaced and just didn't have the pace to go with the top class milers. Very minorly hampered when two on the inside came down around a furlong out, he's still well back and making no impression.
Watch the winner take off like a rocket in the last 50 yards, and glance in behind. There's our boy in light green, finding his feet, and ultimately only the winner and he were finishing fastest. Another furlong and VC may well have won it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rATMSgy0i-w
Australia Derby 1st Apr
Run on heavy ground. Settled near last again until making headway at the bend into the straight. Had to come 6 wide for all of those couple of furlongs where he's circling the field, try to challenge down the middle of the track, and the only one looking like he might get to the winner on the rail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAHJ_GIYf_U
So, 12f on heavy, Group 1, ran further than anybody else, and wasn't far off winning. All suggesting that 2 miles on good (as the forecast suggests it should be) should be well within capability.
Indeed, you can look through the runs and the distance progressions and come (perhaps mistakenly, perhaps correctly) to the conclusion that Liam Howley has had this in mind for some time, possibly Circle's whole racing career (although looking back at past interviews, he never mentioned it, but did make a point of noting that gradually going up in distance when the horse was strong enough to take it was his main intent).
Mum was a Group 2 sprinter, only had 2 runs. Mum's Dad not far off a Group 1 miler. Sire Almanzor a French Derby winner.
I'll stick my neck out and suggest that Vauban and Absurde won't get within 5 lengths. The Aussies don't know, Gold Trip is an obvious danger. Soulcombe, too. Have a suspicion the other Almanzor (Atathbascan) can run a race at a big price, but not sure he'll get to line up.
The question is....is he still a bit young and possibly not quite mature enough?
100-1 (and maybe bigger on the day) is a nice enough play to find out. If the intent is to run, and nothing goes wrong, he seems sure to line up.
Edit, just found this...
"It's David versus Goliath for sure but we are here to take them on.
"But I think at his best he is better than half the field and that's all you've got to be.
"I wasn't put off by the Geelong Cup and felt he had genuine excuses," Howley explained.
"He just didn't settle that great and I don't think he does his best work ridden like that and didn't let go late.
"I am happy to rule a line (through that run), he's come out of it well and is nice and bright.
"Had he drawn a wider gate (in the Bart Cummings) and been able to get clean air at the right time, his run looks a lot better and he's in the conversation.
"He has given me that feel this prep, at the start of the prep I thought a truly run 2000 metres but as the prep has deepened, he has really settled into that real staying mould."
Howley's final decision will come after a course-proper gallop at either Bendigo or Kyneton on Thursday morning.
I would suggest from those comments that Howley is confident enough the $100k profit (after the $58k for keeping him in is taken off) is there for the taking by getting in the first 12. Let's hope he comes out of the gallop OK on Thursday, and then steps up a level.
