The 2024 Longshot Thread

Ha bless ya.

It's a weird one, I was considering backing it ante post for today even before that race at Haydock. My thinking was whatever it did at Haydock, he was an improving colt, and I could see it peaking today.

For some reason I never saw it through. Only myself to blame, maybe I went a bit skint at the time I can't remember, but these things happen, they are just happening too often to me for my liking!

I had a the fourth placer in aj each way yankee. Onwards and upwards.
 
1.15 Cheltenham
Bass Rock 28/1 (B365) gets in here off 120 having won off 130 a couple of years ago. It’s a bit of a leap of faith as his runs last season were poor but he’s run well fresh in the past and may just appreciate the change of stable. Worth a small interest each way
 
Back On The Lash 3.35 Cheltenham 100/1
That's exactly what I will be doing if this comes good.
Has run poorly the last 3 or 4 times, but is very well handicapped on the best of his form
The ground, looks ideal, he has won at Cheltenham in the past and the stable are in decent form.
If back on song 100/1 is a huge price.
Good luck everyone.
 
Cheltenham 2.25 - Royal Mer 40/1 - came up a steep curve last year and would be around 12/1 but for a poor final run. Might want it softer but at this time of year it's seldom fast. Second-season chaser and entitled to pick up the curve again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 2.25 - Royal Mer 40/1 - came up a steep curve last year and would be around 12/1 but for a poor final run. Might want it softer but at this time of year it's seldom fast. Second-season chaser and entitled to pick up the curve again.
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NR

Assume I dodged a wee bullet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
NR

Assume I dodged a wee bullet.
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That's odd (ish). Had a look earlier. DP said he's been going well at home. All best form looks to be in small fields but, theoretically, 10 ought to have been OK. In the absence of any other info (like a knock or something) have to asssume the ground is faster than first thought.
 
My favourite Saturday escapism has duly arrived, apart from getting slaughtered down the local boozer that is. Let's hope these don't get slaughtered tomorrow. Here's some longshots.

Doncaster 2.05 Walbank has been lightly raced this turf season, having won a race at Meydan after being castrated. His mark is tumbling down and no surprise if he can run a big race here under Billy the kid.

4.25 Quest For Fun is still interesting now dropped in grade. It was a better run last time, when 10th of 21 runners in a class two at York. He's had a poor year overall, but it's possible he is simmering at the right time for a big run here. At 20/1 he's each way material.

Cheltenham 1.45 Hauraki Gulf showed limited ability in some egg and spoon hurdle races, finishing second a few times, while being noted as being unfluent in running. All that tells me is he could do a lot better in future. He won two chases, including one race by about a dozen lengths. He was impressive that day, I was on him then. He had a nice prep run for this last time when second again back over hurdles in a lower class event. He's a 20/1 shot in a five runner race, but I think he'll out run these odds.
 
Marb said:
My favourite Saturday escapism has duly arrived, apart from getting slaughtered down the local boozer that is. Let's hope these don't get slaughtered tomorrow. Here's some longshots.

Doncaster 2.05 Walbank has been lightly raced this turf season, having won a race at Meydan after being castrated. His mark is tumbling down and no surprise if he can run a big race here under Billy the kid.

4.25 Quest For Fun is still interesting now dropped in grade. It was a better run last time, when 10th of 21 runners in a class two at York. He's had a poor year overall, but it's possible he is simmering at the right time for a big run here. At 20/1 he's each way material.

Cheltenham 1.45 Hauraki Gulf showed limited ability in some egg and spoon hurdle races, finishing second a few times, while being noted as being unfluent in running. All that tells me is he could do a lot better in future. He won two chases, including one race by about a dozen lengths. He was impressive that day, I was on him then. He had a nice prep run for this last time when second again back over hurdles in a lower class event. He's a 20/1 shot in a five runner race, but I think he'll out run these odds.
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Hauraki a gallant second, I'll watch out for him in a good handicap hurdle in future.

Walbank a respectable fifth and I'd say he was an eyecatcher for future races.
 
2,55 Cheltenham
Secret Trix 22/1 B365
Hated fences last time and he wouldn’t be the first horse who didn’t handle Cartmel previously
He can outrun these odds today
 
Cangofar 1.55 Redcar 33-1 WH , mid 70s BF but might yet go out.

I'm expecting Tim Easterby's Almanzor colt to be better than shown at some point. TE lined up another Alamanzor - Candonomore - to run 2nd first time up in a York C3 novice last year at a big price. Cangofar has had two runs on heavy ground in goodish class company, may be about ready to show something now. Otherwise, handicaps beckon next year.

Has at least two/three good-looking sorts to beat but the soft ground might level it a bit.
 
3.15 Ascot - Jour D'Evasion 20/1, 4 places - was 13/8 to beat a 130-rated opponent the time it pulled up so must be thought some way better than 112. Not my main bet in the race but worth a decent enough saver.

3.45 Ascot - Kitty's Light 40/1 - remains well handicapped and connections might be tempted to have a pop at the market at such long odds but the stable hasn’t hit form yet and the horse has doubled in price in the last 48 hours so really just sickness insurance.
 
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November Hcap - Wise Eagle 100/1, 5 places - I imagine Moehat will be backing this and I'd endorse the idea despite the worry about a general drift this morning. No sooner had I gone in at 80/1 than he was pushed out to 100s with Hills :cautious:. I've also taken 66/1 to six places. He's joint second-top with me on his best form this season and should be fine with the track, trip and ground. Mulrennan is always a negative for me these days but you can't have everything, I suppose.

I plan to have a few outsiders in this race - it's that kind of race - and will edit this post to add them shortly.

1st edit - I backed Adjuvant last night (20/1), agreeing with others to mention him this week. I actually have him 4lbs clear on my best figure for him but didn't do those figures until last night so missed the bigger prices from the other day. It's been backed and no longer qualifies for the thread so won't claim it for the thread if it does go in.

2nd edit:

Oneforthegutter 33/1, 6 places - also mentioned by others, I think. Joint second-top on my figures so too long not to get involved.

Dark Moon Rising 40/1, 6 places - another jt 2nd-top and maybe a fairytale send-off for Jimmy Quinn. I want to be part of the fairytale if it happens but I worry about the soft ground for it.

Austrian Theory 33/1, 6 places - another jt 2nd-top for me and I don't fancy it to stay but just in case it does...

Beamish 40/1, 6 places - only 1lb back from the above but top overall on last season's figures so again I can't not back it.
 
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As you probably know, I'm already on Adjuvent. Agree with Wise Eagle. He's a silly price, can't ignore it.
I put up Oneforthegutter at 66s for the Ebor.
He is a lively outsider also at 33s, especially if he runs up to his Ebor run. A little on those 2 for me.
 
Grand Sefton:

Richmond Lake 20/1, 4 places - second-top on my figures (to Frero Bampot, which I can't back) so worth a pop. Not sure he'll take to the fences but them's the chances we take.

Galon De Vauzelle 33/1, 4 places - enough to find on my figures but Rothwell isn't one to send them over here for fun and it might just be about to take off on a steep curve.
 
Of course I’m on my boy at 100/1 with five places on offer. He might be even more in running given that he has to be held up. I just hope that, if he gets tailed off his handicap mark comes down. Stable had a good win yesterday and Eagle is far more reliable than that one. I’m a wreck when he runs, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Grand Sefton:

Richmond Lake 20/1, 4 places - second-top on my figures (to Frero Bampot, which I can't back) so worth a pop. Not sure he'll take to the fences but them's the chances we take.

Galon De Vauzelle 33/1, 4 places - enough to find on my figures but Rothwell isn't one to send them over here for fun and it might just be about to take off on a steep curve.
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Richmond Lake got 4th (pretty sure anyway) so that's those two outsiders covered and one or two of the Nov Hcap too.

RL was trying and that's all I'll ever ask. Not so sure about GDV.
 
Three Dons is my top rated at 40/1. Not sure about the draw. Some stats say winner needs to be under 9 but another one says 9+.
 
Nothing like fast women and slow horses to make fools of us but this time it was a fast horse.

In the Badger Beer the first horse I dismissed was Al Dancer on account of the trip and jockey despite the trainer's excellent record at the track.

But it was a hugely impressive performance from all concerned to get an 11yo to rip apart a good field like that.

It will be very interesting to see what the handicapper does with the form. Maybe he's needed 3m all along!
 
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