I came here looking for this one after I spotted it was running today. Not quite 50/1 now but worth a go at 22/25s. You couldn't help but take notice of the way he came through late on at Uttoxeter LTO, and that was only his 2nd run back after 2 years off, so hopefully there was plenty to work on. Trainer isn't in bad form either. Fingers crossed.
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The 2025 Longshot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Saturday, 1.55 - Kappa Jy Pyke 28/1 - surely that price is wrong? Of course Lulamba looks like a bit of a good thing but KJP is second top on ORs and Townend rides. We won't know until the race if Lulamba is over what had to be a hard race in the Triumph and I'll be happy enough with second place if it wins but we won't know until we know.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Fantastic Lady in the 16.05
6th in this last year, runner up the year before.
6th in this last year, runner up the year before.
Desert Orchid
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...
Might be the Ayr Champion Hurdle or the route I mapped out above but it definitely wasn't today.
Desert Orchid
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Got sixth so I'm happy enough with the return as it covers me for the whole race. Might have been third if it hadn't been forced miles wide at the canal turn and who knows how much energy it had to use up to make up the ground.
The winner wasn't on my radar but that was pilot error on my part. I mistyped my rating for him and hadn't noticed my mistake. He was obviously plotted up for a year for this. He was second in the Champion Chase and had come down to 155 so his chance should have been obvious to me.
Well done anyone who backed it. It had been 33/1 on Wednesday, sp 14/1 so somebody 'knew'.
Generous1991
Amateur Rider
Aye, but there were signs at stages in the race today that he was running like a goodun, so hopefully I will remember you pointing him out and back him when the time comes.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
I’ve been a bit disappointed all season by Deep Cave, but he gets a final chance for me tomorrow. Not sure I’ll get around to full study of this race, but he jumps out at me again. 33/1 currently and shortened up a bit - though lots of others have too. A couple of non runners already, I think.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
In the big one tomorrow- the 2.05 at Newcastle - I was going to put up the delightfully named Knacker Trapper. It was 20’s at the time, but now adjusted to a more realistic 12/1 best price. Not sure if it still qualifies as a long shot.
Desert Orchid
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Desert Orchid
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Only after I'd dismissed him and backed others did I read King's Weekender column in which claimed FAF was crying out for today's trip. BUt he still holds an entry for the two mile race at Ayr.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
OK. Bit of a balls up there.It doesn't. Has to be 20s available at the time of posting but good luck with it
Robicheaux
Amateur Rider
Meydan 3.20. Group 1 sprint on World Cup day.
Isivunguvungu chased a ferocious pace in the Breeders Cup sprint. Still in there battling for a place, until forced to snatch up, by the flying winner Starlust.
6f tomorrow. Soumillion can get him settled + play him late, a big run may be on the cards.
25/1.
Isivunguvungu chased a ferocious pace in the Breeders Cup sprint. Still in there battling for a place, until forced to snatch up, by the flying winner Starlust.
6f tomorrow. Soumillion can get him settled + play him late, a big run may be on the cards.
25/1.
Desert Orchid
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Aintree 1.20 - Shanagh Bob 33/1, 5 places - On jockey bookings he looked (2 NRs) the least fancied of the Hendo handful but he was only 7/2 for the G1 here last year and was presumably thought to be at least a 140 animal. He's off 129 here. I wonder if Nico will now switch to him.
Edit - Also Robicheaux's Dartan from the race thread. 100/1 is, as Ian says, far too big. Its best rating from last year, gained on good ground, would put it top on my figures (if vulnerable to improvers).
Edit - Also Robicheaux's Dartan from the race thread. 100/1 is, as Ian says, far too big. Its best rating from last year, gained on good ground, would put it top on my figures (if vulnerable to improvers).
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Desert Orchid
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2.30 Shakem Up'arry 33/1, 4 places - Nicely handicapped after three runs aimed at getting its mark down for the National but they overdid it and he missed the cut. Unproven at the trip but if they th0ught he'd be okay for the big race he should be okay here. He was a good winner of the Plate last year and is back down to the same mark.
(Edit - a bit of me hopes he gets gubbed because the last thing I want to see is Harry Redknap's coupon filling my TV screen and him spouting his shite.)
(Edit - a bit of me hopes he gets gubbed because the last thing I want to see is Harry Redknap's coupon filling my TV screen and him spouting his shite.)
Beef or Salmon
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It's for very similar reasons that when I'm torn I usually back the Skelton horse, if I'm going to have to listen to Fathead talking shite I at least want some financial compensation.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
I stuck this one in a couple of speculative Lucky’s last night when he was 16/1. Not sure why the big drift, though it is a bit of a worry as it doesn’t look a particularly strong renewal. Might have another little interest in him at these odds.
chaumi
Rookie
The worry with Shake'em is that every one of Pauling's big guns has run like a drain over the last few days, several pulled up and those that finished have been well and truly hammered when, in theory, they shouldn't have been. BP would have had high hopes for all of them at the start of the season (and did), which suggests the yard is likely not right.
Top tipping.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
You posted this on 14th March. I hope you were on today as it has just won the 4.40 at Ffos Las easily at 9/1 (it was about 6/1 last night).
Desert Orchid
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2000G - Green Impact 33/1 - I haven't studied the form but Jessica Harrington says this will be her runner in the race rather than 16/1 shot Hotazhell who will go for the Poulains. There has to be a strong chance Green Impact will end up 16/1 or shorter so this is just about trying to snaffle a wee bit of value.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
Good shout, but a note of caution that she also said that is the plan at the moment and that he wouldn’t want it too fast or too slow. Interesting though that she seemed to like him more than the Futurity winner who beat Delacroix.
I’d say the 33’s won’t last long, but as I don’t bet ante-post I’ll have to give him a miss.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
Beltway still showing him as 25/1, but elsewhere best price 20/1. Someone probably had a fiver each way on it!
Desert Orchid
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I suspect it's just the bookies catching up with the news and acting accordingly. It's possible they didn't take money for it at all.
Robicheaux
Amateur Rider
Spring Cup Saturday. I think Inishfallen is big at 66s + 50s generally. Some useful form as a 2yo, including finishing in front of 111 rated Devils Point. Didn't happen for him as a 3yo, but his last run, was a step in the right direction ( 2nd one after being gelded ).