The Bumpers Thread

Thanks folks. I could only listen to the race, it sounds like they were all pretty dire. :)

David Cleary on Timeform radio went for Floral Spinner too.
 
Favourite Listen and Learn and Irish visitor Milanwong (awful name) seem to be the two to concentrate on in the bumper at Bangor.

Roll On Ruby and Art School are flat bred, which normally is not desirable in bumpers, where horses are being asked to carry what are by flat standards huge weights over marathon distances. Golden Court has a reasonable looking pedigree but unfortunately his stable are completely out of form. None of the rest appeal.

Listen And Learn is a brother to Irish bumper winner King Malik and was narrowly beaten on debut by a Henderson inmate. His chance is obvious, but the form has not been tested since, even though that race was back in May.

Milanwong is out of a mare which won a bumper, hurdle and chase and a couple of her siblings are quite decent. I suspect the horse has been sent over to Wales because her owner trainer wants to put her in the shop window and bumpers in the UK are often that bit easier to win than in Ireland. The little bit of rain they've had today will do no harm to her chances.

I've backed them in a reverse forecast (Bet365 offer guaranteed odds on these) and I've also had a small bet on Milanwong to win, at 10/1.
 
Teelin Star runs in the bumper in Listowel today. Can he recoup losses here? I can see him burning these off from the front, apparently the bit slipped through his mouth on racecourse debut....views anyone?
 
trefflich said:
Teelin Star runs in the bumper in Listowel today. Can he recoup losses here? I can see him burning these off from the front, apparently the bit slipped through his mouth on racecourse debut....views anyone?
Click to expand...

Put it this way, 6/4 is too short for me but I don't see anything in the race I would like to take him on with. 2m4f in these conditions is a very long trip, and there's no guarantee the favourite or any of the other principals will get it. Not For Changing is one who probably will though, he might keep plugging on and do better than his price suggests.
 
Wouldn't mind siding with My Silver Cloud who's been running well in some decent 3m points (generally doesn't stay the trip too well) and was unlucky not to get off the mark at the first attempt at Dungarvan in Jan (if you watch the ATR P2P feature he's the grey finishing like a train) and is sure to win plenty of races on the track IMHO.

Mullins horses aren't running at all well and Klepht did a leg last Summer and hasn't impressed me in his career so far whilst Jolly Mac Vic looked in need of a trip prior to his run last Sunday (may have put him spot on for this???).

Happy to take 18's about My Silver Cloud though.

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
Wouldn't mind siding with My Silver Cloud who's been running well in some decent 3m points (generally doesn't stay the trip too well) and was unlucky not to get off the mark at the first attempt at Dungarvan in Jan (if you watch the ATR P2P feature he's the grey finishing like a train) and is sure to win plenty of races on the track IMHO.

Mullins horses aren't running at all well and Klepht did a leg last Summer and hasn't impressed me in his career so far whilst Jolly Mac Vic looked in need of a trip prior to his run last Sunday (may have put him spot on for this???).

Happy to take 18's about My Silver Cloud though.

Martin
Click to expand...

I was having a look and I think the fav is too short and agree with your assessment of Jolly Mac Vic and thought he and Klept would fight it out. It's a shame neither has a claimer on to take off weight in this ground but as I trust your judgement Martin I'll do Jolly Mac Vic for the win, My Silver Cloud e/way and a combo f/c those two with Klept.
 
Straight over the big ones now according to Hughes...should be something to savour. If he's not bought in the meantime??
 
It is very surprising given that today's race is a winners bumper, of which there are very few in Ireland.

Fields for the other races today are smaller that you'd usually expect, the ground must be getting pretty bad.
 
Listowel 5:45 Derrylea Girl 7/1 general - 10pts e/way

Trainer Thomas Cooper has a 43% place rate in all bumpers in the last 5 years - He also has a 60% win rate at Listowel from 5 runners in bumpers. The only thing stopping me staking bigger is the lack of any form on heavy from the horse but breeding suggests she should handle it. 7/1 is value imo and I may look again later on betfair.
 
The market for today's bumper at Ludlow looks quite different to what I was expecting.

I thought Darkest Before Dawn, already the winner of a bumper in Ireland before being sold, would be favourite and Abruzzi second favourite. At the moment they are only third and fourth in the market.

DFD is now with Caroline Keevil since winning at Killarney at the end of August. Her stable has not been in great form so far this season, perhaps that, plus the 7lb penalty, is why he is surprisingly long in the betting? He has the best adjusted RPR in the race and the subsequent form of those he has run against suggest the rating is accurate enough.

Abruzzi was a 12L second on debut at Fontwell over 19f. He is from a family of solid NH performers, but nobody would accuse them of precocity, and I don't think the drop to 16f today will be any help either. Second favourite Amazing D'Azy and 10/1 shot La Velle Vie also come into this category.

Favourite Devil's Dyke is flat bred, which is a negative when it comes to bumpers. Maybe such horses only get put in bumpers when it's already clear there's not much hope for them on the flat, or maybe connections are hoping bumpers are easier pickings. Whatever the reason, they seldom do well. Several other horses in the race are also flat bred.

Troyan could be the dark horse in the race. He cost €27k as a 3yo, which suggests there is at least some bit of quality about him and he is related to several bumper winners. He might be worth an each way go at 16/1.
 
Grey said:
The market for today's bumper at Ludlow looks quite different to what I was expecting.

I thought Darkest Before Dawn, already the winner of a bumper in Ireland before being sold, would be favourite and Abruzzi second favourite. At the moment they are only third and fourth in the market.

DFD is now with Caroline Keevil since winning at Killarney at the end of August. Her stable has not been in great form so far this season, perhaps that, plus the 7lb penalty, is why he is surprisingly long in the betting? He has the best adjusted RPR in the race and the subsequent form of those he has run against suggest the rating is accurate enough.

Abruzzi was a 12L second on debut at Fontwell over 19f. He is from a family of solid NH performers, but nobody would accuse them of precocity, and I don't think the drop to 16f today will be any help either. Second favourite Amazing D'Azy and 10/1 shot La Velle Vie also come into this category.

Favourite Devil's Dyke is flat bred, which is a negative when it comes to bumpers. Maybe such horses only get put in bumpers when it's already clear there's not much hope for them on the flat, or maybe connections are hoping bumpers are easier pickings. Whatever the reason, they seldom do well. Several other horses in the race are also flat bred.

Troyan could be the dark horse in the race. He cost €27k as a 3yo, which suggests there is at least some bit of quality about him and he is related to several bumper winners. He might be worth an each way go at 16/1.
Click to expand...


Kim Bailey seems keen on Amazing D'Azy - with a £27k Brightwells sale price in Dec 11. Too short for me, though looks like all the Bailey runners could go well today.

Troyan seems a good go at the prices:

From Dickin's website:

''An Irish import who came over last summer. he was backed last year & then turned away as he was thought to need the time to mature A horse with an exciting future, who will be running in bumpers later in the year''.

You might be on to something. Grey
 
Last edited:
Grey said:
Troyan could be the dark horse in the race. He cost €27k as a 3yo, which suggests there is at least some bit of quality about him and he is related to several bumper winners. He might be worth an each way go at 16/1.
Click to expand...

Seriously good call. Well done, hope you had it right off.
 
I backed this in powers at 4.20 and it was 14/1....did it really return 4/1 or is that a typo?? Serious call regardless, thanks Art!
 
Back
Top