The Derby 2008

I've been advising Juddmonte Farms to supplement Doctor Freemantle for the past month, as he stands a much better chance at the trip than Twice Over. I'm told he will be supplemented but we'll wait and see. Backed him at 9s with a run at Coral. Tartan Bearer has been just shading him in the gallops though.

Also backed New Approach (apparently left in by 'mistake'... don't believe that!) and Casual Conquest both with a run.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@Jun 1 2008, 04:34 PM
Also backed New Approach (apparently left in by 'mistake'... don't believe that!) and Casual Conquest both with a run.
Click to expand...
This had me in a quandary. Do I take the 5/1 New Approach with a run or the 120 at betfair and risk losing my stake if he doesn't show...

After some reflection, I decided to go in with a 'throwaway' tenner at 120. If Steve is right and we shouldn't believe the horse was left in by mistake then I'd be kicking myself black, blue and purple for not having the cojones to back the horse with all the ticks in all the boxes ~ except the one that says he runs. After all, I've reckoned he was the Derby winner since before the Guineas.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+Jun 1 2008, 06:31 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ Jun 1 2008, 06:31 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Jun 1 2008, 04:34 PM
Also backed New Approach (apparently left in by 'mistake'... don't believe that!) and Casual Conquest both with a run.
Click to expand...
This had me in a quandary. Do I take the 5/1 New Approach with a run or the 120 at betfair and risk losing my stake if he doesn't show...

After some reflection, I decided to go in with a 'throwaway' tenner at 120. If Steve is right and we shouldn't believe the horse was left in by mistake then I'd be kicking myself black, blue and purple for not having the cojones to back the horse with all the ticks in all the boxes ~ except the one that says he runs. After all, I've reckoned he was the Derby winner since before the Guineas. [/b][/quote]
I`ve taken those odds as well, Bolger must be tempted.
 
From what I understand Bolger is against it. Princess Haya on the other hand if my sources are accurate insisted he be left in. This doesn't mean he'll run of course. On the other hand a bit of behind the scenes pressure from SheikhMo could still see something wonderful happen. On balance I guess he's still more likely to run in Ireland.

Looks like River Proud could be supplemented tomorrow. I doubt he'll stay though.
 
I would be amazed if Bolger a) wanted to run New Approach and b) could run New Approach. Given his complaining about the ground at The Curragh, you'd imagine he would have eased right off the horse since then. I fully expect him (along with Henry) to be missing from the 5 day list tomorrow.

Frozen Fire out to 22/1 for the Derby tonight on Betfair....surely cannot be fancied by connections.
 
Well I suppose that's what will happen. If Bolger's not trained him with Epsom in mind then he will surely run in Ireland.

I would have been kicking myself had I not taken the 5s and he does stay in though.
 
Nevermind River Proud staying - it's trained at Whatcombe, the poor bastid's probably had enough of life being trained there already, being galloped into the ground an' all!
 
Just thought I'd inflict my Derby ratings on you :D Kandahar Runs figure is too slow to be taken with anysense of reliability. Obviously a sluggish race and would be better off being interpreted as evidence of acceleration.

Casual Conquest = 100.47+ (10F, Derrinstown, slightly on the slow side of Good to Firm)
Tajaaweed = 98.94p (10.5F, Dee Stakes - fast side of good ground)
Washington Irving = 94.47 (10F, Derrinstown, slightly on the slow side of Good to Firm)
Tartan Bearer = 93.00 (10.5F, Dante, fast sides of Good to Firm)
Frozen Fire = 92.88 (10.5 Dante, fast side of Good to Firm)
Alessandro Volta = 92.82 (11.5F, Lingfield trial, Good to Firm ground)
King of Rome = 92.07 (11.5F, Lingfield trial, Good to Firm ground)
Doctor Fremantle = 90.83 (12.5F's, Chester Vase, Good, good to firm good in places)
Dr Faustus = 87.58 (10F Newmarket handicap slower side of good, not adjusted for weight yet)
Bronze Cannon = 83.70 (10F, Newmarket H'cap, slower side of good)
Kanadahar Run = 73.64~ (10F, Newmarket Stakes, slower side of good)
 
Just in: NEW APPROACH will run in the Vodafone Derby on Saturday, providing the ground is good or softer, trainer Jim Bolger said on Monday morning.
 
I really am amazed....for a man who prides himself on being a good Christian he tells alot of untruths!

He will probably go off a false favourite, off his prep I wouldn't fancy him (though at 120/1 I might be tempted!!!).
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 2 2008, 10:34 AM
I really am amazed....for a man who prides himself on being a good Christian he tells alot of untruths!

He will probably go off a false favourite, off his prep I wouldn't fancy him (though at 120/1 I might be tempted!!!).
Click to expand...
To be fair to Bolger he has always been against it. A royal will has prevailed it seems.

Never mind about 'false favourite' this horse is screaming for 12 furlongs. He's got Casual Conquest (who has committed to Epsom) to beat, which I think he will.

Lets hope Princess Haya gets her Classic recompense.
 
Will be fascinating to see how he's raced. Is he really going to try and make all? I'd guess not, presumably they'll keep him back like in the Dewhurst?
 
Originally posted by SteveM+Jun 2 2008, 11:58 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SteveM @ Jun 2 2008, 11:58 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Galileo@Jun 2 2008, 10:34 AM
I really am amazed....for a man who prides himself on being a good Christian he tells alot of untruths!

He will probably go off a false favourite, off his prep I wouldn't fancy him (though at 120/1 I might be tempted!!!).
Click to expand...
To be fair to Bolger he has always been against it. A royal will has prevailed it seems.

Never mind about 'false favourite' this horse is screaming for 12 furlongs. He's got Casual Conquest (who has committed to Epsom) to beat, which I think he will.

Lets hope Princess Haya gets her Classic recompense. [/b][/quote]
I should re-phrase it. I think at his best he would win The Derby but it remains to be seen, given his prep, if he will truely be at his best.

Casual Conquest is another I think I will take on with one of the Stoute horses.
 
Ladbrokes betting...

Casual Conquest 3/1
Curtain Call 4/1
New Approach 6/1
Tajaweed 6/1
Tartan Bearer 7/1
Doctor Fremantle 8/1
Frozen Fire 14/1
Rio De La Plata 14/1
Kandahar Run 20/1
King Of Rome 20/1
Alessandro Volta 25/1
Bronze Cannon 25/1
River Proud 33/1
Washinton Irving 33/1
Bashkirov 150/1
Bouguereau 150/1
Alan Devonshire 250/1
Maidstone Mixture 1000/1
 
Once he said the horse would miss the Irish Derby if it was firm there and mutterings from Epsom suggested it would be no drier than good - this is no surprise .

Also unlike the old days , going down to the start in the Derby is not quite the ordeal it used to be when they had to walk across the Downs through the crowds.
 
I wasn't going to touch the race but i'm tempted by New Approach at 6's (still can't beleive Bolger's comments)

Can someone please explain tome how CC is 2 points shorter than NA?
 
Thank god New Approach is running. I had hope Henry would, but at least now we have a proper Group 1 performer going to post. Without him it would have been one of the dullest looking derby's in years, with an imporving handicapper in Dr Fremantle not far from the head of the market!

Rio De La Plata is an interesting contender at 14s - Godolphin well overdue a first Derby winner!
 
I know some NH trainer forgot to declare a horse for a race at the Festival (Schindlers Hunt?) but really mistakes like this don`t happen do they. That`s why i took 80 the other night - unfortunately only for a fiver - I imagine they are going completely bulu on the BF Forum.
 
Originally posted by numbersix@Jun 2 2008, 11:57 AM
Thank god New Approach is running. I had hope Henry would, but at least now we have a proper Group 1 performer going to post. Without him it would have been one of the dullest looking derby's in years, with an imporving handicapper in Dr Fremantle not far from the head of the market!

Rio De La Plata is an interesting contender at 14s - Godolphin well overdue a first Derby winner!
Click to expand...
Do you really think RDP will stay??

Cant see it myself
 
I hope he doesn't try to make all Gareth. He won't win in that case. I'm sure the idea will be to keep him handy. I want to see him in about fourth rounding Tatt Corner... then if he makes the improvement at the trip that I think he will they'll be strung out like washing at the death.
 
Back
Top