The Derby 2008

O'Brien saying the decision has been taken out of their hands regarding Henry running....looks like he is a NR as they are unlikely to get fast ground. I hope it keeps raining if it means he is not put over such a silly and unsuitable trip.

Rio De La Plata is confirmed a runner for Godolphin, while Weld has as good as confirmed Casual Conquest a likely runner.
 
Ryan Moore rides Tartan Bearer, McEvoy rides Doctor Freemantle and Hill rides Tajaaweed.

O'Brien confirms that King Of Rome, Alessandro Volta, Washington Irving, Frozen Fire and Bashkirov are all likely runners.
 
A week away from the meeting, and Epsom is soft all over with more rain due tomorrow (erm, today!) and not much in the way of sunshine in the 5 day forecast.
 
Curtain Call would appear to have been put up by a tipping line. His price seems absolutely ridiculous now.
 
I agree about Curtain Call, silly price

Casual Conquest also very short for me.


I fancy the first 2 in the Dante quite strongly.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 31 2008, 01:34 AM
A week away from the meeting, and Epsom is soft all over with more rain due tomorrow (erm, today!) and not much in the way of sunshine in the 5 day forecast.
Click to expand...
Who will soft ground really favour and inconvience? Curtain Call, Frozen Fire should appreciate the cut in the ground...Casual Conquest and the Stoute horses?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=2335
 
It looks like it will be fairly breezy and the track drains so well that unless there's an absolute deluge good ground can be expected by the start of the meeting with conditions if anything on the fast side on Saturday. Old Farmer Giles has spoken.
 
A BBC 5 day forecast is about as reliable as a Sporting Life tissue. I'm inclined to think fast side of Good at this stage too
 
Gal, any idea on whether or not King Of Rome is likely to run? On looking to see what price he is I see that he has been supported recently so I'm hoping that's in his favour! I liked his run at Lingfield, he was carried wide around the bend by the winner yet still ran on well to finish a good second.
 
Interesting you should ask that Shadow Leader as I have heard a few people mention the horse in the last couple of days. Looking at the betting he has also been backed this morning into as low as 20/1.
 
Labrokes have pushed Frozen Fire out to 12/1 tonight for the Derby. They have been negative on him before and since the Dante.

Casual Conquest (Needs to be supplemented) 7/2
Curtain Call 4/1
Henrythenavigator 5/1
Tajaaweed 6/1
Doctor Fremantle (Needs to be supplemented) 7/1
Tartan Bearer 7/1
Frozen Fire 12/1
Rio De La Plata 14/1
Alessandro Volta 20/1
Bronze Cannon 20/1
Ibn Khaldun 20/1
Kandahar Run 20/1
King Of Rome 20/1
Washington Irving 25/1
Achill Island 33/1
Ripple 50/1
Bouguereau 66/1
Feared In Flight 66/1
Montmartre 66/1
Bashkirov 100/1
Alan Devonshire 200/1
Maidstone Mixture 1000/1
 
Everyone has the power to do it! Sorry I didn't mean for it to look like I was covering it up...you were right, a typo there!
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@May 25 2008, 11:27 AM
Thanks, Ven.

Mind you, I am still having trouble accepting your assertion that Henry has no chance. shrug::
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Hi Colin,

In terms of ability Henrythenavigator is clearly the pick of the O’Brien team, but he is unlikely to relish the trip or the likely going. As mentioned in my 2,000 Guineas article, the Kingmambo colt is brother to Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 (which indicates an optimum trip of about 9 furlongs) and four stamina points he was certain to improve when stepping up to a mile. However, a mile-and-a-half could well be beyond him. Sadler’s Wells is his dam sire and gives him a chance of getting it, while his sire Kingmambo is able to throw up middle-distance horses when matched to the right mare. So while I believe he is likely to show his best at 8-10 furlongs, we shouldn’t absolutely rule out his chance of staying 12 furlongs.

New Approach on the other hand is screaming out for middle distances.
 
I’ve managed a look at the main contenders, according to the betting, and these are my thoughts so far. The ratings are their current bare ratings, which require no adjustment as they’re all carrying the same weight.

Casual Conquest 119+ (7/2)
The impressive Derrinstown winner remains to be supplemented but his prominence in all the lists suggests it will happen. I just wonder if he beat a great deal. However, a rating of 119 going into the Derby would make him a strong candidate for an average renewal.

Curtain Call 115+ (4/1)
I’m not sure what this runner has done to merit such a short price compared with others. Disappointed somewhat in the Racing Post Trophy last backend and the form of his win this season, while decent, doesn’t amount to as much as others at longer odds. Probably priced on home reputation as much as anything else.

New Approach 132+?
(Doubtful runner - see Henrythenavigator)

Tajaaweed 116 (6/1)
Dee Stakes win is solid enough and Unnefer, a winner before and since, has advertised his chances. However, the latter’s two wins were both in muddling affairs and it seems unclear if he’s the yard’s top candidate.

Tartan Bearer 121 (6/1)
Tajaweed’s stablemate strikes me as having stronger claims. The Dante winner put up a decent time there but only just shaded Frozen Fire at the line and may struggle to confirm the form.

Henrythenavigator 135t (7/1)
Clearly brings the best form to the party but has serious questions to answer about stamina, especially if the rain stays around most of the week. After the 2000 Guineas, I tentatively argued a case for the form being among the best of recent seasons. Although the Irish version involved very few runners, I’m more inclined now to go with the more generous reading of both races. However, Hawk Wing had an equally high rating and I opposed him on stamina grounds with High Chaparral, but it may be the case this year that there is no High Chaparral in the race. New Approach would be a huge danger as he’d be certain to improve for the trip and less firmness in the ground compared with Newmarket and the Curragh.

Doctor Fremantle 118? (9/1)
Another that requires to be supplemented but no stamina worries with this team-mate of Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed, since he’s already won over the trip in the Chester Vase and in a smart time. However, he was officially rated only 93 that day and beat a 91 horse by just half a length so there have to be doubts about the reliability of the times that day.

Frozen Fire 121 (12/1)
Very much an unknown quantity when brought over for the RP Trophy after winning a maiden but showed genuine potential when getting to within a head of Tartan Bearer in the Dante despite running green, to some observers. Being by Montjeu, stamina is unlikely to be a concern and if there is a ‘High Chaparral’ in the race this could be it.

I'll check out the likes of KOR and see if anything interesting surfaces.
 
Good stuff DO.

Of the Stoute horses I think I have a preference for Doctor Freemantle. I can see Tartan Bearer get out paced coming down the hill before staying on again.

Most open looking Derby I can remember in a long time.

Frozen Fire's lack of support in the market has to be a worry. I thought after his Dante run he would be strongly fancied given the way the O'Brien horses are coming on bundles for their seasonal reappearance. But it does not appear to be the case with this one.
 
If Dr Freemantle is Derby class he surely would have won his Chester race far easier. I`ll be surprised if Tajaaweed doesn`t finish in front of Stoute`s other charges.
 
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