The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Gareth Flynn said:
Unfortunately, the paddock experience was rather messed up by the O'Brien horses being ridiculously late. He got fined for it, but I really don't know what the hell was going on there. I've been to Guineas and Oaks where he's had multiple entries and nothing like that happened. It was almost comical watching Pat Keating trying to get all the rugs off in time for the jockeys.
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This happened before the Leger last year Gareth when O'Brien saddled maybe 5 runners, cant quite remember. Anyway, O'Brien saddles each runner himself down at the pre parade ring, and I dont have a problem with that, but when each one is done and ready instead of being sent down to the paddock it must wait at the pre-parade ring until the whole battalion is ready to walk down together. Several times at Doncaster a parade ring marshall attempted to get horses that were saddled and ready to leave for the main paddock but they were prevented from doing so by the o'Brien team until all five were ready to walk down together. Some horses were saddled and ready to go down for ten minutes but the end result was they were barely in the paddock when it was time for the jockeys were to be mounted.
 
I can't remember if it was last year or the year before, but he had a multiple Oaks entry and saddled them all on the grass in the middle of the paddock. Maybe he felt that wasn't optimal for some reason, but if you're going to have multiple horses in a Classic you've got to find a way to make it work for everyone. Sending them out one by one would indeed make sense!
 
But wouldn't that then lead people to try and draw conclusions about whether they were leaving the most fancied runner till last?
 
uncle goober said:
I think they wanted to give all their horses a chance including the nonstayer and in so doing decided that the best thing to do in order to achieve that was to hope that Sea The Stars totally failed to stay or, in other words, ignore Sea The Stars and hope for the best. Unfortunately for them Sea The Stars was the best horse.
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Probably the most accurate summation of the race, if Sea The Stars didn't stay and/or bombed out, everybody would be congratulating Ballydoyle on what an amazing job they did to get 4 horses finishing within about 2 lengths of each other from 1st to 4th. It just transpires that Sea The Stars is an exceptionally talented racehorse.
 
Mr Oxx has been a refreshing change, I think he's well spoken and polite who gives the public everything they need to know and I just hope he doesnt take this horse away from us like New Approach and Ravens Pass
 
Johnny Murtagh when interviewed on the BBC before the race seemed to be pretty clear that there wasn't much between the Ballydoyle three - F & G , RVW and Mof the H . I think it suggests he is a pretty good judge .

I was impressed by F & G in the Derrinstown but the fact that Murtagh was not aboard him was the biggest possible vote of confidence in STS for me . I couldn't see any of the Guineas horses beating him and although I know there are arguably commercial reasons why they would have preferred RVW to win of their lot - if F & g was thought to have been much the best - Murtagh would have been on him .

I disagree with treetangle -the way the front five left the rest for dead suggests they are all pretty good and I would be far from surprised if AOB was able to find each of them 2-5 - a Group 1 by the end of the year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
But wouldn't that then lead people to try and draw conclusions about whether they were leaving the most fancied runner till last?
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The pre-parade ring is indeed open to the public anyway so the knowledge of which order the horses are being saddled would be in the public domain anyway regardless of whether they stayed in the pre-parade ring until they were all saddled or whether they went into the paddock one by one.
 
treetangle said:
I did use the word 'may' and why is it so obviously wrong? Five horses finished pretty close yesterday - at this stage what evidence is there to suggest this year's three year olds are above average? Until we have further evidence to the contrary it is a plausible argument that Sea The Stars may be a little bit better than an average crop - at least at 10f. Sea The Stars was extremely lucky that the Ballydoyle team completely failed to expose any possible stamina limitations.

As regards most people agreeing it was a strong field I think that just forms part of an increasing trend to over-hype racing. Sometimes it seems as if the media think they have some sort of duty to 'sell' the product even if the pitch is based more on speculation than fact. Hence the elevation of Sea The Stars to superstar status.
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I think its fair to say that 5 horses finishing close up says more about the pace than the quality..if they had gone a true pace and 5 horses had finished like that I would agree that they might be pretty ordinary.

This years field has a number of pretty good horses compared to an average year..most years you get about 3 with a good chance...most years you don't get a horse like F&G either. This year we have about 7 or 8 that were real contenders.

I wasn't talking about media hyping up..I was talking about this thread..people that know a bit about racing..and the concensus before the race was that it was above average and that all pre evidence tells you that the contenders were strong.

I don't myself over hype horses..in fact I have a history on here of underplaying performances..I don't have an allegiance to any stable or jock..I just go on what I see and try to be impartial.

If this years Derby is below par..I would be surprised..and I personally have been watching Derbies since the mid 70's..as I am sure many on the forum have.

On top of that..the sectionals tell me STS is near on a 130 horse without breaking sweat..:D

I think you have to use your own judgement a bit with this..its just an average year stuff..my judgement tells me that if this is average..then the last 25 Derbys have been below average..which is unlikely
 
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(To SL)
I understood that but just wondered whether sending them out individually made things even more obvious to the wider public. Or is a case of 'we run as a team so we arrive as a team'.

All it would take is one brave set of stewards to warn them in advance that any horse late in arriving at the parade ring would lead to its disqualification and then carrying out the threat for it not to happen again.

Which, of course, might lead to their not bringing over their horses again!
 
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Sounds like Sea The Stars will be aimed at the Irish Derby but will have the Eclipse the following Saturday as a backup if the ground is soft at the Curragh.
 
I take Treetangle's post as a reminder that it's too early to be sure of Sea The Stars' quality outside of the company he's beaten and the circs of those 2 major wins (however, don't see the Guineas' race as really needing that much caution.)

Ok, I'll take a reminder -- but I look forward positively to his seemingly outstanding quality being validated ... depending on what races Oxx&Tsui agree on.

How far apart are the Champion stakes (either) & the Arc?
Not far enough for comfort, I think. Something in mid to late July, then?
That'd be the Eclipse.
Then a good rest until October and a short trip to Paree.

After yesterday, do the O&T team really have to worry over whether the Arc would be a good choice? Having won the Guineas, Derby & Eclipse, the reward for an Arc win would be quite something.

Racing is always risky (unless your surname's Gosden and the horse is RP :rolleyes: ... cheap shot, I know!)
 
Yes, she was extremely late into the paddock for The May Hill at Doncaster last year I remember stewards setting off to look for her!
 
So the Irish Derby...

Imagine Rip Van Winkle will drop in trip leaving all the other Ballydoyle horses that ran at Epsom run against at The Curragh. Sea The Stars and hopefully an impressive French Derby winner...well worth going to see.

No surprise to see STS confirmed for the Irish Derby ground permitting.
 
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Galileo said:
:eek:

John Oxx:
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Sure haven't I been arguing exactly that for years??

The speed at which Guineas are run is virtually the same as July Cups and the top speeds of the horses are virtually identical. The difference is that Guineas winners have the stamina to keep running for another two furlongs.

Dick Hern was on record as saying Brigadier Gerard could have won a Nunthorpe. He was faster than the yard's Nunthorpe runners.

Hern said "a" Nunthorpe, acknowledging that some winners are genuine 126+ horses and Dayjur was about 135. But 120 has won a Nunthorpe too just as Oath was only 118 in the Derby.

Also, Oxx says STS could "run well" in a July Cup. He's doesn't say it could win it, although I would go the full distance and say STS could win "a" July Cup.
 
Right, anyone care to price up the Irish Derby on Good ground with all bar RIP turning up?

By the way has Willoughby given his thoughts on the race in todays RP?
 
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Sorry about my post at 1 in the morning last night I felt a bit at the time like Rocky did in one of his films "the one in the middle rocky" etc!

ahh..:confused:

Vital lesson learned.
 
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Coming off a strong pace I think STS could pace in the July Cup for sure, the horse has shown a fantastic turn of foot and that attribute can be manipulated depending on a horse's stamina and we have seen that by stepping up from a mile to 12f, I think Oxx hints on this point by rather looking at the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of the horses ability byt speaking about the July Cup pin pointing his speed rather than talking about the St Ledger because STS is probally at this limit with 12f.
 
I think the fact that even a horse like STS would maybe struggle in the Leger really highlights just how good Nijinsky was to do all 3 trips.

Shergar as good as he was failed in the Leger and wouldn't have won a guineas anyway..his strength was purely in the 12f area.

maybe we could have a..was Nijinsky the best flat horse thread?..a bit like the Arkle discussion :lol:

I would love a horse to do the triple crown..so we could have a modern day Nijinsky
 
What was the point of Oxx talking about a race the horse is never going to participate in other than to try and add even more to his appeal as a stallion? Personally, I don't think he would get within five lengths of the Overdose that turned up in Paris last year. I hope it stays dry for the Irish Derby so we don't get the ready-made excuse to miss the race.
 
EC1 said:
I think the fact that even a horse like STS would maybe struggle in the Leger really highlights just how good Nijinsky was to do all 3 trips.
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I am pretty sure Nijinsky would not have taken in the Leger if they knew he would subsequently have ended his career with two defeats. Those two defeats probably took more off his status than winning the St Leger added.

Sad to say but Flat racing is more about what happens off the track than on it. Many St Leger winners just turn out to be mediocre NH stallions.
 
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