The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

treetangle said:
I am pretty sure Nijinsky would not have taken in the Leger if they knew he would subsequently have ended his career with two defeats.

Sad to say but Flat racing is more about what happens off the track than on it.
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That's the key word though, career. If he was mine i'd go for the Leger and then plan a 4yo campaign around the Arc and Breeders Cup.
 
treetangle said:
What was the point of Oxx talking about a race the horse is never going to participate in other than to try and add even more to his appeal as a stallion?
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He's just trained a horse to win the Guineas and the Derby. He can say whatever he likes :)
 
treetangle said:
I am pretty sure Nijinsky would not have taken in the Leger if they knew he would subsequently have ended his career with two defeats. Those two defeats probably took more off his status than winning the St Leger added.

Sad to say but Flat racing is more about what happens off the track than on it. Many St Leger winners just turn out to be mediocre NH stallions.
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It wasn't the Leger that cost him his last two races. It was illness. It's the ultimate irony that a peerless trainer like MVOB saw fit to send the horse to the well not once but twice too often.

There have been better horses than Nijinsky, I reckon, but he was the first winner of the triple crown for 35 years and we all thought at the time it probably wouldn't be another 35 years before we saw another. almost 40 years later, we're still looking.

Interesting that John Oxx opined that he felt it would happen some time in the next ten years or so, though.
 
Ringworm, wasn't it? Part of Muriel Lennox's book on Northern Dancer is devoted to Nijinsky. Really good read.
 
EC1 said:
to be fair - Overdose is a freak from the footage I've seen - at sprints he could be the best we seen

either that or they speeded the footage up
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just a point, but I know the split screen of Overdose and Marchand D'Or from the Abbaye shouldnt be taken at face value as there was a very strong tail wind while the first 'race' was on but that wasnt there for the 2nd race.

Regarding STS, I couldnt see him winning a July Cup, but he wouldnt be disgraced..
 
Just a small post-script to the Derby that might be worth logging.

Last month quite a few people were expressing the opinion what a great Dante it was etc and what a fantastic trial it would prove to be.

The Dante was actually quite slow this year I thought, but that would hardly be the acid test admittedly. It did however conspire to provide the

6th, 9th and 10th come Derby day

By contrast the quicker, and largely dismissed Vase provided the

3rd, 5th and 8th
 
It's all been said. A superb winner. Congratulations to Hamm and others who were strong on him. he clearly gets a mile and a half but I wouldn't be surprised if they drop him back to 10 furlongs where he'll be very hard to beat.

Hoped to see more of a test to bring the stengths of Fame And Glory into play. I'd like to see Fame run in the Irish Derby and the St Leger (although I doubt they'll opt for the latter). But no complaints. A high class Derby.

Wouldn't it be great if STS had a go at the Triple Crown. Another Nijinsky? I wouldn't like to say not.
 
Warbler said:
Just a small post-script to the Derby that might be worth logging.

Last month quite a few people were expressing the opinion what a great Dante it was etc and what a fantastic trial it would prove to be.

The Dante was actually quite slow this year I thought, but that would hardly be the acid test admittedly. It did however conspire to provide the

6th, 9th and 10th come Derby day

By contrast the quicker, and largely dismissed Vase provided the

3rd, 5th and 8th
Click to expand...

I think you brought this up beforehand; well spotted re the Dante.
 
I think the Irish Derby would be all wrong for Sea the Stars. He would only be beating the same horses again in a race of less prestige. In terms of his CV, he would be much better going for the Eclipse, a more prestigous race where he could possibly add a Group 1 over 1m2 and beat his elders. I think the likelihood of ground without the word 'soft' in it is slim, and if there were betting on the Irish Derby now, Fame & Glory would be a great bet at 2/1 or better.

Anyone think 12/1 Fame & Glory for the Arc is worth an interest? If it came up even good to soft, it's hard to see anything but Conduit challenging him, plus he'd have (presumably) Murtagh on board this time.
 
I took some 12s immediately after the race on saturday. His pedigree suggests it's pointless going for the big 10f races, especially with RIP and Freemantle in the stable. So he should be given an Arc prep. Not too worried about Conduit, the owner/trainer have a terrible record in the race.
 
I would take issue with the idea the Eclipse is more prestigous than the Irish Derby....particularly for Irish trainers.
 
Warbler said:
Just a small post-script to the Derby that might be worth logging.

Last month quite a few people were expressing the opinion what a great Dante it was etc and what a fantastic trial it would prove to be.

The Dante was actually quite slow this year I thought, but that would hardly be the acid test admittedly. It did however conspire to provide the

6th, 9th and 10th come Derby day

By contrast the quicker, and largely dismissed Vase provided the

3rd, 5th and 8th
Click to expand...

Sea The Stars 125
Fame And Glory 123+
Crowded House 120+
Gan Amhras 120++
Rip Van Winkle 120+
Black Bear Island 114 (Dante)
Golden Sword 114 (Vase)
Masterofthehorse 111
Kite Wood 110
Age Of Aquarius 109
Debussy 109
South Easter 109
Montaff 108
...

I’m not too keen on the Dante form this year. Too many of the beaten horses were running off ratings that suggest it was not a hot renewal.
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Yes, I went low on the Dante too but had the winner on the same figure as the Vase.I think it's fair to say BBI simply didn't run his race though.
 
This made me smile.

From Stewart Peters' "Derby Days":

"The one surprising aspect of the 1965 Derby was that the pace was nothing more than sedate. This puzzled many people, who believed the English colts would try and examine Sea Bird's stamina with a brutally fast gallop."
 
Galileo said:
I would take issue with the idea the Eclipse is more prestigous than the Irish Derby....particularly for Irish trainers.
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Yes, but I look on European racing as one entity, and I think in that respect, the Eclipse is above the Irish Derby. Aside from that, I think the other reasons I gave are more why I hope he goes to Sandown.

Plus, it would be easier for me to go see him :)
 
Hamm said:
Yes, but I look on European racing as one entity, and I think in that respect, the Eclipse is above the Irish Derby.
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In terms of "European racing" it is still superior to the Eclipse....Jesus Hamm are any Irish Group 1s worth anything in your opinion?
 
It's only an opinion.

What other Irish Group 1s have I commented on?

I think i said the Tattersalls Gold Cup is usually a poor race.

I don't have the time right now but I'd be interested to see, say a 10 year comparison in RPRs between the Eclipse and the Irish Derby.

I thought, in a balanced way, I gave my reasons why STS should go to the Eclipse as
- He'd only be beating the same horses again
- He could win a Group 1 at a third distance this year
- He could beat older horses
- I think the Eclipse has more prestige
- Ground more likely to suit at Sandown
 
At the Curragh he could prove what several recent Epsom winners have been unable to prove, namely that he well and truly gets 12f and is in the top rank of colts over the distance.

Hamm, if the Eclipse was as exalted in status as suggested by you it would be worth a lot more money. There's time enough later in the season to take on the older horses.
 
When is there time though? He can't keep going all year, and the Arc could be on unsuitable ground, as will probably the Irish Champion. If he wants to show he is a top class colt over 1m4, he should run in the King George. The only other 1m2 race with the probability of quick ground is the Juddmonte.

What with his last two runs, prize money is now an irrelevance due to the probability of tens of millions in stud fees.
 
RPRs since 1989:

Code: 
[b]Year	Eclipse	IrishD	Best[/b]
1989	134	128	Eclipse
1990	123	127	Irish Derby
1991	125	133	Irish Derby
1992	124	134	Irish Derby
1993	121	127	Irish Derby
1994	119	129	Irish Derby
1995	120	121	Irish Derby
1996	127	126	Eclipse
1997	128	123	Eclipse
1998	126	119	Eclipse
1999	123	133	Irish Derby
2000	130	132	Irish Derby
2001	121	129	Irish Derby
2002	126	124	Eclipse
2003	126	127	Irish Derby
2004	126	126	Tie
2005	124	126	Irish Derby
2006	122	124	Irish Derby
2007	124	127	Irish Derby
2008	123	122	Eclipse

Average	125	127	Irish Derby
Median	124	127	Irish Derby
Mode	126	127	Irish Derby
Maximum	134	134	Tie
Minimum	119	119	Tie
 
I reckon it's debatable if the Irish Derby has more status than the Eclipse although whether it's actually worth arguing over is debatable itself.

The Eclipse is the first all-aged G1 which you could argue puts it alongside the King George. The Irish Derby, in recent years, has produced some superior performances to the Derby.
 
The Eclipse has been a bit mundane since the Prince of Wales became a Group 1. It's well down the pecking order nowadays.
 
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