The Derby

Hamm said:
I think he ran very well at Sandown, and he and Azmeel were well clear, and he ran wide but never seemed in trouble, and looked like a step up may even bring about more improvement. His run in the National Stakes was highly promising, and I take the view his Dewhurst run is best forgotten, too bad to be true. Added to this, Godolphin are hardly noted for having winners in April so you would imagine there's more to come in that sense too.

St Nick just doesn't look good enough - whether that's because he hasn't trained on, or grown, I don't know - I didn't hear any excuses about the slow time from O'Brien when he won the Racing Post so I disregard his comments now. I accept the Guineas can often pinpoint an ideal type for the Derby, even if such a type is unplaced, but the run of SNA didn't seem to be that to me. I quickly disregard 2yo form to an extent when a horse has run at 3, and I believe SNA is simply a dreadful price, even at 4s. I'm not saying he hasn't a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if a stablemate of his or 2 improved past him. Also, O'Brien hasn't won the Derby with roughly his last 40 horses!

Nothing else stands out at this point in time for me.
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Azmeel certinly did what you expected him to and indeed the form is looking better.

Don't dare write off SNA for the Derby though. This is his right trip and it seems obvious now that he was forced into the Guineas before he was ready. I whacked into Ladbrokes for all of the 4/1 they had after the Guineas (averaging out the 7/4 I had already taken). That doesn't mean I'm not open to alternatives though.

While I can't quite see Chabal as the one, I'll be looking to see just how good Workforce proves to be. Other than that I'm very open to suggestions right now.
 
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Gal, who do you think there number one horse is then?

With regards to St Nic, I read a post somewhere about the family of St Nic's Dam and they have a habit of being very precocious 2yo's who don't train on. I'm of the opinion after seeing him on saturday that he has not really grown or developed much over the winter and would expect (To an extent it has already been proven) that others will have improved past him. I much prefer Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer from the O'Brien stable and have a feeling the former could be their best 10-12f 3yo this year.
 
Aragorn said:
With regards to St Nic, I read a post somewhere about the family of St Nic's Dam and they have a habit of being very precocious 2yo's who don't train on. I'm of the opinion after seeing him on saturday that he has not really grown or developed much over the winter and would expect (To an extent it has already been proven)
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While this could be the case, it seems much more likely that he was just not ready for the Classic.

Mastercraftsman finished fifth last year and he did alright a couple of weeks later.

Midas Touch looks like representing in the Derrinstown, but he's probably not as good as Jan Vermeer. SNA will almost certainly be their No. 1
 
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I think St Nicholas Abbey is very much their number 1 and will be on the day unless something goes wrong in between now and then.

The sudden realisation that he has not grown is a bit bizarre as it was pretty clear last year that he was not the biggest of types last year and as never going to grow into the typical Montjeu stamp. When I saw him at The Curragh earlier in the season I thought he did as well as he could of given what is there of him.

In my opinion (and with a bit of hindsight) he probably needed everything to go right for him if he was to win a Guineas. By that a strong pace with a bit of an ease in the ground - he got neither. Was not knocked around when his chance was gone and came home well enough to not be beaten far.

French/Irish Guineas being muted for Jan Vermeer suggests Epsom is not the main plan right now. I could easily see him go for something like the French Derby. I think if he turns up at Epsom it will either be a big negative for SNA or just a positive as to how well he has done.

Cape Blanco is an interesting colt as in he is probably the type to only show his true ability on the track as he is not a flashy type - York should suit him but you would think he will probably need that outing. I actually think Midas Touch is pretty interesting on Sunday (or indeed if he had been going to Chester this week) and I look forward to seeing him.
 
I'd say that the Ballydoyle horses that were at Chester this week and those going to Lingfield tomorrow are well down the pecking order. St Nicholas Abbey is their no 1 hope, Midas Touch, Jan Vermeer, Cape Blanco and Mikael Glinka are the next tier. It wouldn't surprise me to see Fencing Master going for the Prix du Jockey Club along with Jan Vermeer.
 
Stoutes Desert Myth, may come into the Derby picture tomorrow, if he does win the trial they def intend to run him in the Derby. Recorded a very similar time to CCut over the same C+D, on the same day. It was only a maiden race but the 2nd won by 10 lengths NTO, the 3rd and 4th have both won since.
 
EC1 said:
Captain Jame Cook broke down ..not nice..looked like it anyway
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Awful....:( Just shows you how fragile they are really. Poor horse.

Winner looked nice though. Would be nice for SW to have a live Derby contender.
 
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Remember Perfect Sunday? Similar winner of the race for connections. 10/1 would be as short as he should go for the Derby at a guess.
 
I am loaded up to the max on SNA partly because he's gonna win obviously, but also because he will get smashed into in the days leading up to the race (it's very easy to forget that Fame & Glory started favourite last year) and a tidy partial lay at short odds will leave me with 6/1 I reckon.
 
The winner looks a lot nicer type than Perfect Sunday but HRAC was not so much not impressed but fears he will still be too immature for Epsom .
 
Dante prices on Betfair

Workforce 5/2
Chabal 3/1
Coordinated Cut 7/2
Cape Blanco 7/2


Fascinating contest. I do think Chabal should be favourite and Coordinated Cut is way too short but it's not a race to get too heavily involved in.
 
Euronymous said:
Dante prices on Betfair

Workforce 5/2
Chabal 3/1
Coordinated Cut 7/2
Cape Blanco 7/2


Fascinating contest. I do think Chabal should be favourite and Coordinated Cut is way too short but it's not a race to get too heavily involved in.
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Hope you're wrong about him being too short!
 
Midas Touch does it pretty well on his first out - looked a good proper pace throughout. Second horse looks a bit tricky.
 
The ground must be riding pretty fast, not from a speed figure point of view but just the tiime taken to run 2m 2.50s is the fastest run of that race i can remember.
 
O'Brien said: "He finished the race very well and I believe it was a good time so I am delighted with it.
"It was his first run and he was just ready to come and start, he'll come on a good bit for the run.
"It was a very true-run race, At First Sight was very green in front the last day but today he went a good, even pace and you would have to be very happy with the result.
"The horses have been very behind but we are getting there. Midas Touch was going to go for the Dante, but when Mikhail Glinka got injured we decided to come here.
"Mikhail has not done anything for the last few days.
"It has been a very bad winter and the last few years we have been slow to start, but perhaps this year has been slower than previous years."
Expanding on his Epsom possibles, O'Brien added: "The plan is for Cape Blanco to go to the Dante.
"He caught his heel when cantering this morning, but I hope it is going to be nothing and he is another who will come on for the run.
"If Jan Vermeer goes to the Derby he will need a run beforehand and that will have to come in the Irish 2000 Guineas. I would like him to have a run beforehand (Epsom), but if we can't manage that he could go to the French Derby without a run.
"St Nicholas Abbey is in good form, he's not done anything since Newmarket and he will begin his Derby build-up this week."
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