The Long Shot Thread

Was going to throw Court Minstrel up here last night at 16/1,but he's been backed heavily over night and I'm not interested at 9's.
 
Bonjers said:
Was going to throw Court Minstrel up here last night at 16/1,but he's been backed heavily over night and I'm not interested at 9's.
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Great shout and I feel your pain. I was on the runner up who might have won but seemed to fluff the last


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Agree about Gabrial (got 40/1 but can't be arsed to go each-way).

Other qualifiers today:

Sheikzayedroad 22/1

Brando 33/1

Lancaster Bomber 80/1

Linguistic 20/1

Fingers crossed (no, that's not a qualifier - just, you know...)
 
Long shots in conditions races are not my bag but Sir John Lavery is very overs in the QEII at 40s. This track and ground will suit him much better than Newmarket a fortnight ago and he's worth a small dart.
 
Two qualifiers for me today:

Chel 2.00 - although I think/hope Singlefarmpayment will just be too good for this field, take him out of the equation and it’s very open but I’m a big fan of Perfect Candidate (25/1) round here so if they can eke a little bit of improvement out of him at ten years of age his strong finish up this hill could put him in with a big chance at a very nice price but is longest with SportingBet – always a concern.

Chel 3.10 - Mr Fiftyone (22/1) had a really nice bit of form this time last year and may well have been trained subsequently with this season in mind, leading to the Grand Annual in March.
 
Perfect Candidate now widely available at 28/1. His record around here makes him a bet for me at that price. Expect a decent run but doubt he’ll be good enough to win


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At Newbury I think Across the Stars was better than his finishing position last time and the softer ground should aid his cause judged on the way he went behind Duretto at Chester. At 22/1 he's has as good a chance as any in an open race.

Mister Fizz Goes in a lady amateurs so proceed with extreme caution but at 20/1 might well be worth a rattle. Doesn't run on the flat to often and when he does its usually at Newbury and usually runs decently. A lot lower in the handicap than when last seen here and his last run over timber suggested he's coming into form. A front runner usually on the flat so should be straight forward enough for his amateur pilot.

Global Applause goes in the 4.00 at Doncaster and again is a 20/1 poke. Some decent form as a 2yo behind Harrys Angel and has only had 2 runs this season fto defeat over 6f excusable went well for a long way and next time over 7f he didn't get home. 5f not sure to suit but he just looks like a breath of fresh air in amongst horses that have had long seasons and some who are fully exposed to the handicapper. At the price and with Moore booked worth a shot.

So we come to the pertemps qualifier where again perhaps half the field will be running just to put there name in the hat for March but one that I'm sure will be trying to show some sort of form again is Its a freebee. Been woefully out of form in chases and reverts back to hurdles. Everything seemed to be going just fine for him for a while happily winning novice hurdles before running 3rd behind Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Grd1 Neptune at the festival. Even started his novice chase career with a win over Rolling maul before disappointing on his next start and then having a tounge tie applied to beat next time up Cole Harden. Then he had a couple of runs on Soft ground that were disappointing. His next performance on better ground (festival handicap) he was fairing much better until his saddle slipped and he pulled up. On this occasion he was still fitted with a tt and first time pieces. Then disappointed in the Plate at Market rasen in early autumn.


The overall context of his form suggests that a mark of 134 in a Pertemps qualifier is a winnable one. the absence of pieces or Tounge tie are are major worry and once more have put me off a strong bet. however given his mark and a disappointing run in the Plate surely they'll just want to see him back to some sort of form as if he runs badly he will start hitting a point where he can't get in the good races and even if winning here it won't effect his chase mark if he wishes to revert after a confidence booster. It may be as he's had some sort of breathing op and they no longer think the tie is required as I really can't see why its been left off.

Very chancey but at the price once more I'll take it.

wrote these for my place and just extracted the fancies at 20/1 plus so apologies if it makes little sense as I've just copied and pasted bits.
 
Might aswell add this as I've backed it at 12's lol and its drifted to 20's they must know I'm on haha.


As a rule I don't really like backing topweights in handicaps as there always seems to be something dirty down the bottom that will come and get you.Vaniteux though at the prices seems worth a shot. I'll admit not all the moons have aligned as I'd have liked I was hoping to see a claimer deployed and the cheek pieces refitted and I have to say the fact that he's only joined David Pipe from Henderson a couple of weeks ago does come as a bit of a worry as to how much he has done with him in that time. However there are bits and bobs that suggest he's very capable of going close off his current mark of 158. He was last seen at Sandown chasing home Altior and Special T and he was beaten a distance that would suggest his current mark is only fair at best. However this came only a week after he bolted up at Ayr off a mark of 153 and the 5lb rise he received for that looks lenient to my eye. It could be thought that he was still feeling the effects of that at Sandown. I'm trying as best I can to keep write ups brief so without too much detail his first time out record looks a little like this.


Beaten 5L Sire De grudgy
Won Novice Chase by 19L
2nd In Greatwood Hurdle
Won novice hurdle betaing Vibrato Valtat.

Those are some decent efforts in my view. He has some good Cheltenham bits and pieces over 2mile and the Greatwood performance tells me he's perfectly at home in the hustle and bustle of a big handicap. As always with these races a few of these will have an eye on other targets not too sure pipe doesn't himself. I'm a little worried about the absence of Pieces (put me off a large bet in truth) which seemed to help him at Ayr and he has a tounge tie for the first time so not sure what to make of that. It could be Pipe will run him down the track tomorrow and re apply pieces for the Paddy power however if he is still fancied to be running in the Grd1 chases against the like of Altior then winning this from top weight would be a good starting point. He's young enough and with only 10 chase starts he could still improve into graded performer so hopefully he'll show that tomorrow.
 
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Down Royal 12.45 Fullmoon In Paris 40/1 - well bred horse whose half-brother half-sister and full sister have won 17 races between them on the flat from 1m to 1m7f. 3 of those wins for the selection. O/R 88 is only 1lb lower than 2nd fav Appariton yet the selection is getting the best part of a stone off that horse. May be a non-trier? But at the prices worth a small bet to find out.
 
Can’t for the life of me see how market makes Ball D’Arc fifth-best of the Gigginstown runners in the 15:05. Great each-way bet at 20/1.
 
Great shout tiggers

I hate this horse Outlander. Whenever I back him he runs like a pig so left him alone today ☹️


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Well done tiggers. I trust it was a qualifier :D

Only just checked this thread today.

One I meant to put up earlier:

I took 25/1 ew earlier about Bigbadjohn at Ascot.

I have him top on his earlier form last season against Thistlecrack and he wasn’t far behind it when taking the Reynoldstown here from Flintham. That race maybe bottomed him for the season and he may have been a shade unlucky on his reappearance. He’s entitled to improve anyway into his second season chasing and is a nice price.
 
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2.25 Naas Vastonea 25/1 EW.
Can't let this horse go unbacked at 25/1 in this 10f h'cap at Naas, has dropped to a mark of 78 his lowest mark since winning over C/D on this ground in July 2016. Won on his last outing at Leopardstown last year off 82 in a 22 runner h'cap, getting up in the final strides over 10fs and this looks his best distance these days. Has been ridden recently by todays apprentice M Melia who has had only a few rides mostly on this horse and claims 10lbs. Not sure if he's been put up due to his lack of ability recently to get his mark down but have only noted him riding this horse with hands and heels so far. In a couple of outings the horse has broke well only to be allowed to drop to the rear of the field before running on later. In the hope that this lad can ride better than he's shown so far, horse looks h'capped to run well, last run over a mile was too short imo, should be capeable of getting placed.
 
I know the draw is a serious issue but I've felt compelled to take US Army Ranger ew at 66/1 for the Melbourne Cup.

He started this season off 119 having been raised to 121 for finishing second to Harzand in the Derby. He appears to be running off about 107 down under.

Has this been a year-long plan?

I'm happy to pay to find out despite the draw.
 
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