The Long Shot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
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Wicklow Brave my stab in the dark for the Race that stops a Nation better drawn than last year decent prep better than finishing position suggests. Took tote fixed odds of 70 win 19 place with 365 and also a couple of quid at the tote best price return.
Before that though at Kempton 100/1 shot Luv you whatever has run against hot favourite Ply twice over course and distance got closer last time. On its last run finished about 6.75 lengths behind and is a massive 18lb better off not saying he'll reverse but Even money Ply against a 100/1 Luv U Whatever and available at 50's in without fav markets and with 365 40's without fav and 2nd fav 3 places must be worth a little poke at one of those to get in amongst them on these terms.
Before that though at Kempton 100/1 shot Luv you whatever has run against hot favourite Ply twice over course and distance got closer last time. On its last run finished about 6.75 lengths behind and is a massive 18lb better off not saying he'll reverse but Even money Ply against a 100/1 Luv U Whatever and available at 50's in without fav markets and with 365 40's without fav and 2nd fav 3 places must be worth a little poke at one of those to get in amongst them on these terms.
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Well played mate hadn't really took much notice as I'd been a bit busy but just turned around to see this one win and knew I'd seen it somewhere haha well done.
Feeling a little hard done to with that one no pace early and given a shite ride. With Ply and seniority in the first 3 needed to finish 5th for a place at 40's and finished 6th....marvellous thanks Baz !
Desert Orchid
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Seconded!
I've had a look at the November Handicap and tbh haven't got a clue but extracted my thoughts on the long shots in the race that I think might have a squeak for this thread not sure what I'm backing (if any) but you can read the thoughts and see if you fancy a pop at one of them.
Euchen Glen 20/1 wasn't one I was too familiar with and seen as he's been campaigning over 2 miles for a while it would be quite easy to overlook him here. However he's won a small handicap at Ayr over 1m5f on good ground off a mark of 88 and is only 3lbs higher here. The quality of this race may not have been up to too much but he earned the comments comfortably. He's also won over 10f this season on fast ground albeit it off a lower mark it shows he's not short of speed. His most impressive form though is probably disguised in his old Newton Cup running he was beaten 5.5 lengths on fast ground at Haydock but he was badly hampered and although he wouldn't have won he'd have probably framed in a race more valuable than tomorrows. The question for tomorrow is though the likely soft ground. He hasn't ran on it since early in his career over a mile so there just isn't the evidence to say how he handles it. He's run with credit on gd-sft a few times but surely if he goes in the ground it will only serve as an aid for a horse that's been successful over 2 miles he certainly won't mind the greater test of stamina. With a clear run in that Newton cup he'd of framed I think and the longer straight here and the more testing ground if he handles it should help him to go very close and I doubt that if he's in the mix at the furlong pole whether too many of these would see this out better.
Azari 33/1 actually comes out top on Dave Edwards figures. Based on a performance over 12F in soft ground at Haydock beating Zubayr (Runs in the Elite Hurdle tomorrow) . Been running ok lately without ever threatening. Sometimes due to being held up off slow pace and also hasn't faced such a stamina test as what he had at Haydock since and having dropped back in trip last time out. Kingscote back in for the ride replacing claimer Jenny Powell. Slight doubts about the attitude of this one but could go well at a price especially if they go a pace (predicted lack of pace though according to Atr).
Eddystone Rock 25/1
Been dropped back in trip for his last 2 runs which is hardly makes sense considering he's stayed on strongly to win a hot handicap over 10.5F at York. At the beginning of the week this was an even bigger price and before the rain was forecast I'd have been quite happy to have had a good bet on. However if the ground is testing it just dampens my enthusiaim for him. His win at York looks really strong Titty Makfi came out and won a listed race recently Borocco jetted in somewhere and one of the others who was close behind that day has alo run big. If memory serves he's 3lb higher here and that would put him in with a chance. Is he as good over 12F ? possibly ;srug: He's had 2 attempts at it one decent run earlier in the season 2nd at Epsom (hung on the camber) and an effort at Royal Ascot where went ok and got no run at all boxed in at a vital time. 12F soft ground a bit too much of a slog ? possibly, but a good horse I feel who might find himself trying group races next season.
Minotaur 33/1
Not going to lie you need to take a leap of faith. Last time on the flat was a handful of lengths behind Dance the Dream and Top Tug (both prominent in the betting here) . Jockey did a brilliant job of twisiling his whip around like a girl and her baton at the front of a marching band without managing to so much as stroke the horse with it. Doesn't look the most straight forward of rides ,looks like an absolute boat, jonjo o neil trained first time blinkers, good luck, good night god bless. .
Cohesion 25/1
I love David Bridgewater, long live the Bolster. The end!.
Joking aside last time he ran over this trip was on the all weather at Wolvo and he won off a mark of 101. Off 104 here with the brilliant George Wood claiming 3lb. Hasn't been seen on the Flat since blazing a trail in a 2miler in April over in France group 3 wasn't disgraced running against Marmelo and Bateel ffs. Had a run over jumps to blow off the cobwebs and did I mention I love David Bridgewater.
As you like.
Euchen Glen 20/1 wasn't one I was too familiar with and seen as he's been campaigning over 2 miles for a while it would be quite easy to overlook him here. However he's won a small handicap at Ayr over 1m5f on good ground off a mark of 88 and is only 3lbs higher here. The quality of this race may not have been up to too much but he earned the comments comfortably. He's also won over 10f this season on fast ground albeit it off a lower mark it shows he's not short of speed. His most impressive form though is probably disguised in his old Newton Cup running he was beaten 5.5 lengths on fast ground at Haydock but he was badly hampered and although he wouldn't have won he'd have probably framed in a race more valuable than tomorrows. The question for tomorrow is though the likely soft ground. He hasn't ran on it since early in his career over a mile so there just isn't the evidence to say how he handles it. He's run with credit on gd-sft a few times but surely if he goes in the ground it will only serve as an aid for a horse that's been successful over 2 miles he certainly won't mind the greater test of stamina. With a clear run in that Newton cup he'd of framed I think and the longer straight here and the more testing ground if he handles it should help him to go very close and I doubt that if he's in the mix at the furlong pole whether too many of these would see this out better.
Azari 33/1 actually comes out top on Dave Edwards figures. Based on a performance over 12F in soft ground at Haydock beating Zubayr (Runs in the Elite Hurdle tomorrow) . Been running ok lately without ever threatening. Sometimes due to being held up off slow pace and also hasn't faced such a stamina test as what he had at Haydock since and having dropped back in trip last time out. Kingscote back in for the ride replacing claimer Jenny Powell. Slight doubts about the attitude of this one but could go well at a price especially if they go a pace (predicted lack of pace though according to Atr).
Eddystone Rock 25/1
Been dropped back in trip for his last 2 runs which is hardly makes sense considering he's stayed on strongly to win a hot handicap over 10.5F at York. At the beginning of the week this was an even bigger price and before the rain was forecast I'd have been quite happy to have had a good bet on. However if the ground is testing it just dampens my enthusiaim for him. His win at York looks really strong Titty Makfi came out and won a listed race recently Borocco jetted in somewhere and one of the others who was close behind that day has alo run big. If memory serves he's 3lb higher here and that would put him in with a chance. Is he as good over 12F ? possibly ;srug: He's had 2 attempts at it one decent run earlier in the season 2nd at Epsom (hung on the camber) and an effort at Royal Ascot where went ok and got no run at all boxed in at a vital time. 12F soft ground a bit too much of a slog ? possibly, but a good horse I feel who might find himself trying group races next season.
Minotaur 33/1
Not going to lie you need to take a leap of faith. Last time on the flat was a handful of lengths behind Dance the Dream and Top Tug (both prominent in the betting here) . Jockey did a brilliant job of twisiling his whip around like a girl and her baton at the front of a marching band without managing to so much as stroke the horse with it. Doesn't look the most straight forward of rides ,looks like an absolute boat, jonjo o neil trained first time blinkers, good luck, good night god bless. .
Cohesion 25/1
I love David Bridgewater, long live the Bolster. The end!.
Joking aside last time he ran over this trip was on the all weather at Wolvo and he won off a mark of 101. Off 104 here with the brilliant George Wood claiming 3lb. Hasn't been seen on the Flat since blazing a trail in a 2miler in April over in France group 3 wasn't disgraced running against Marmelo and Bateel ffs. Had a run over jumps to blow off the cobwebs and did I mention I love David Bridgewater.
As you like.
No mate I didn't back it single even though it went out to 40's during the day I played some small combi's. So I will say this if you've backed it Marb although it may not look like it at first glance you've been a bit unlucky not to win it If you look at the first 8 home they were all on the front end I'd presume they've gone no more than a married mans gallop. As the front lot started to kick for home his jockey hesitated and then got short of room and the front lot have stole about 3 lengths on him. Nice place for you Marb but should have been even better in my view.
O.k The paddy power or the Bet victor which ever way you like to look at it. I've had to make a play as soon as the decs have come out generally a 33/1 poke but 40's available with Skybet for 5 places which I've taken I wouldn't normally quote such a firm but I actually managed to get a mate to get a bet on with them.
I think I can make an interesting case for a horse that if crossing the line first I'm sure the hush will fall over the crowd and murmurings of who the f' was that shall echo about the ring. Mystifiable is the creature in question. I was hoping beyond hope that the original top weight would come out (which it has) and allow this to run in the handicap proper. At nine years old and having no real form on major tracks this will probably go unnoticed and may even go off bigger than what I've taken on the day. However when looking through the fancied horses this week and noticing a lot of people were keen on Tully east it begged the question what classes as a pipe opener ? I watched Tully eats comeback run over hurdles which was beyond terrible hitting hurdles and beaten a distance and its o.k because that was just putting it right for the day. That might well be the case as he obviously brings that good win from the festival to the table and more than likely will be a different animal on the day but it shows what punters are prepared to excuse and that's for a horse at single figure odds.
So what of Mystifiables pipe opener ? Ran very well for a long way ended up beaten 14L's by the well fancied Romain de Senam. If we took into consideration that Misty took the third last out of the ground and that it was the first run of the season then your enitled to think he could get quite a lot closer this time around even though the Nicholls runner in the end did things fairly cosily. This isn't enough though really until we consider the swing in the weights. Now different people have different ideas about how much weight affects a horse and beaten distances and I too have pondered the imponderables for hours up on end but have come to the idea you can work from scales that say x lbs=y lengths but in the end I think you just have to see if it puts them in the right ball park. Officially 14lb better off to me says I'm interested and right ball park. The fact that Fergal O'Brien deploys a 7lb amateur who may possibly be able to do the 9-9 but lowest riding weight thus far is 9-10 makes it even more so. If doing the weight proper we are talking a 21lb weight swing which quite frankly is fair by which ever scale you work by. The next question I asked is who the bloody hell is Miss L Pinchin ? 3-11 in Chase rides 27% strike rate horrible small sample group I know but that could look worse. Fergal O brien 5 winner in the last 14 days. I personally hate stats especially these sort and the fact I'm using them to try and bolster a bet is beneath me usually but as said they could be worse. The horse maybe be a 9yo but has only had 8 chase starts and won 3 of them and only 19 runs under rules so is still relatively unexposed. Front runner so that should be simple enough for an Amateur jock. Have a look at that replay and make your own mind but so many positives about a horse at such a huge price and although my initial reaction was not the "right sort" and 2 "not good enough" its very hard to ignore that Chepstow run and his chances on these terms.
As you like.
I think I can make an interesting case for a horse that if crossing the line first I'm sure the hush will fall over the crowd and murmurings of who the f' was that shall echo about the ring. Mystifiable is the creature in question. I was hoping beyond hope that the original top weight would come out (which it has) and allow this to run in the handicap proper. At nine years old and having no real form on major tracks this will probably go unnoticed and may even go off bigger than what I've taken on the day. However when looking through the fancied horses this week and noticing a lot of people were keen on Tully east it begged the question what classes as a pipe opener ? I watched Tully eats comeback run over hurdles which was beyond terrible hitting hurdles and beaten a distance and its o.k because that was just putting it right for the day. That might well be the case as he obviously brings that good win from the festival to the table and more than likely will be a different animal on the day but it shows what punters are prepared to excuse and that's for a horse at single figure odds.
So what of Mystifiables pipe opener ? Ran very well for a long way ended up beaten 14L's by the well fancied Romain de Senam. If we took into consideration that Misty took the third last out of the ground and that it was the first run of the season then your enitled to think he could get quite a lot closer this time around even though the Nicholls runner in the end did things fairly cosily. This isn't enough though really until we consider the swing in the weights. Now different people have different ideas about how much weight affects a horse and beaten distances and I too have pondered the imponderables for hours up on end but have come to the idea you can work from scales that say x lbs=y lengths but in the end I think you just have to see if it puts them in the right ball park. Officially 14lb better off to me says I'm interested and right ball park. The fact that Fergal O'Brien deploys a 7lb amateur who may possibly be able to do the 9-9 but lowest riding weight thus far is 9-10 makes it even more so. If doing the weight proper we are talking a 21lb weight swing which quite frankly is fair by which ever scale you work by. The next question I asked is who the bloody hell is Miss L Pinchin ? 3-11 in Chase rides 27% strike rate horrible small sample group I know but that could look worse. Fergal O brien 5 winner in the last 14 days. I personally hate stats especially these sort and the fact I'm using them to try and bolster a bet is beneath me usually but as said they could be worse. The horse maybe be a 9yo but has only had 8 chase starts and won 3 of them and only 19 runs under rules so is still relatively unexposed. Front runner so that should be simple enough for an Amateur jock. Have a look at that replay and make your own mind but so many positives about a horse at such a huge price and although my initial reaction was not the "right sort" and 2 "not good enough" its very hard to ignore that Chepstow run and his chances on these terms.
As you like.
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Desert Orchid
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In today's big race I've taken a fun punt on
Lake Takapuna 50/1 ew 5 places
I tend to go higher with Irish handicap form (to allow for the 6lbs average differential between our handicappers’ assessment of Irish runners over here) and he was beaten less than five lengths by A Toi Phil in the big Leopardstown handicap in January, after which he missed the rest of the season. Our handicapper appears to have largely ignored that run. He had a lob around the rear in an ordinary race at Galway in August, presumably as part of his fitness programme, and Culloty tends not to send them here unless he likes them (Spring Heeled, Lord Windermere). He might still be a dark horse. Or, as suggested on the forum, Culloty might just be an idiot who has got lucky over here a couple of times…
Obviously I fancy others a lot more but this one might just be a lot longer than it deserves.
Lake Takapuna 50/1 ew 5 places
I tend to go higher with Irish handicap form (to allow for the 6lbs average differential between our handicappers’ assessment of Irish runners over here) and he was beaten less than five lengths by A Toi Phil in the big Leopardstown handicap in January, after which he missed the rest of the season. Our handicapper appears to have largely ignored that run. He had a lob around the rear in an ordinary race at Galway in August, presumably as part of his fitness programme, and Culloty tends not to send them here unless he likes them (Spring Heeled, Lord Windermere). He might still be a dark horse. Or, as suggested on the forum, Culloty might just be an idiot who has got lucky over here a couple of times…
Obviously I fancy others a lot more but this one might just be a lot longer than it deserves.
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swedish chef
At the Start
Cheltenham 1.15 Sheer Poetry 40/1 - 6 places SkyBet. Won readily l/t/o over fences and if form is as good as it looks, she could be well in back over hurdles. Lots of question marks over her temperament and ability to handle soft going but that is reflected in the odds.
Desert Orchid
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I've backed Ivanovitch Gorbatov (ew, five places) at 28/1 in the Greatwood.
I have him top rated on his County run and I'm not convinced he's JP's second string.
I have him top rated on his County run and I'm not convinced he's JP's second string.
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Don't rub it in...
Desert Orchid
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It's been a wee while since I had any luck with these longshots and today's is weak in the market but I've backed it anyway.
Haydock 2.25 Fingerontheswitch ew 33/1, 6 places. (50s elsewhere)
From something I wrote elsewhere:
Haydock 2.25 Fingerontheswitch ew 33/1, 6 places. (50s elsewhere)
From something I wrote elsewhere:
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Desert Orchid
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Cheers, Danny. I was actually wondering what price he might have been in-running going to the last in the back straight as I felt nothing was travelling better but he soon came off the bit and struggled up the straight.
Could he be getting plotted up for something over fences in due course?
Could he be getting plotted up for something over fences in due course?
3.20 Ludlow
Clondaw Rigger 20/1
Its more the penultimate run at Uttoxeter that interests me. Needs to improve yes and is speculative yes but has a squeak here off 83, if improving for a switch to fences a decent coming on for the comeback run.
Clondaw Rigger 20/1
Its more the penultimate run at Uttoxeter that interests me. Needs to improve yes and is speculative yes but has a squeak here off 83, if improving for a switch to fences a decent coming on for the comeback run.
Still liking this one a couple of hours later.
Look at the form of that Uttoxeter race
Market Road won two subsequent runs before falling early when favourite in a Chepstow handicap. Ran well for an inexperienced rider latest.
More interestingly...
Zamoyski, who was beaten by the selection has won two subsequent starts at Southwell and now has a rating of 109.
Cracking EW whilst there's the dead 8.
Already put up Vieux Lion rouge at 33's for this reasoning on the daily selections thread but probably thinking he's a NR in truth. Was scanning over the rest of the outsiders and posted this up over my place but haven't yet backed it thought I'd copy it over so you can run your eye over it Des if he makes the line up.
Spent a couple of hours on this again in the early hours of the morning and still feeling slightly uninspired with it all I'm not sure if that's something to do with the Ghosts of Hennessy's past as I struggle to remember ever having a good result in it. However as I moved towards the point of exhaustion and exasperation last night I did find another outsider of interest. Roi de Francs generally a 50/1 poke with all firms has an ugly looking set of form figures but I can't believe he should be this sort of price. He kicked off last campaign by finishing 3L 3rd to Champagne Fever and the handicapper took a dim view of this and raised him 9lb. He then went on to run terribly on his next four starts before being tried in Blinkers for the first time and winning what I have to admit was a weak looking handicap but winning it by 7 lengths from a mark of 150 the same mark that he's been put on for this. As it goes though his next race also in Blinkers was the big one itself where he led them a merry dance in the Grand national for quite someway on a mark of 154. Despite at one point losing the lead after being almost carried out of the race by a loose horse he regained it once more and only gave way at the third last eventually finishing well back. This though at least offers some explanation for his lack of form earlier in the campaign as its not uncommon for horses on a National programme to run badly before the weights come out and then suddenly regain form for the prep run and seen as his Victory came in March that looks to be the case here. He then went on with the blinkers removed to PU in the Irish national. He was down to run in that race you we're all interested in yesterday (Troytown?) and was down to have the Blinkers reapplied however he was a non runner due to being "Stiff" I wonder if he will have limbered up by Saturday ? When watching the National back he was clearly travelling well within himself and could have been going a lot quicker jumped from fence to fence beautifully and he was clearly a different horse than the one we'd seen for most of the season. I'd say if he lines up Saturday with Blinkers back on then he's a trier and he could lead them a merry dance for a long way.
Spent a couple of hours on this again in the early hours of the morning and still feeling slightly uninspired with it all I'm not sure if that's something to do with the Ghosts of Hennessy's past as I struggle to remember ever having a good result in it. However as I moved towards the point of exhaustion and exasperation last night I did find another outsider of interest. Roi de Francs generally a 50/1 poke with all firms has an ugly looking set of form figures but I can't believe he should be this sort of price. He kicked off last campaign by finishing 3L 3rd to Champagne Fever and the handicapper took a dim view of this and raised him 9lb. He then went on to run terribly on his next four starts before being tried in Blinkers for the first time and winning what I have to admit was a weak looking handicap but winning it by 7 lengths from a mark of 150 the same mark that he's been put on for this. As it goes though his next race also in Blinkers was the big one itself where he led them a merry dance in the Grand national for quite someway on a mark of 154. Despite at one point losing the lead after being almost carried out of the race by a loose horse he regained it once more and only gave way at the third last eventually finishing well back. This though at least offers some explanation for his lack of form earlier in the campaign as its not uncommon for horses on a National programme to run badly before the weights come out and then suddenly regain form for the prep run and seen as his Victory came in March that looks to be the case here. He then went on with the blinkers removed to PU in the Irish national. He was down to run in that race you we're all interested in yesterday (Troytown?) and was down to have the Blinkers reapplied however he was a non runner due to being "Stiff" I wonder if he will have limbered up by Saturday ? When watching the National back he was clearly travelling well within himself and could have been going a lot quicker jumped from fence to fence beautifully and he was clearly a different horse than the one we'd seen for most of the season. I'd say if he lines up Saturday with Blinkers back on then he's a trier and he could lead them a merry dance for a long way.
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Roi de Francs a NR so perhaps keep an eye out for him in future. Vieux Lion Rouge the one I've actually invested in is left in at this stage 
So hope springs eternal.
Actually hope doesn't he's out just the RP slow off the mark again
So hope springs eternal.Actually hope doesn't he's out just the RP slow off the mark again
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Desert Orchid
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Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1
Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.