The Long Shot Thread

I am going with an outsider in the same race as Thistlecrack DO but Colins Sister at 12/1. Improving mare getting weight and I think she’s up to grabbing a place. Price may go bigger before the off.


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Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1

Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
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Tip of the hat to you sir.

Fantastic call.


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Great call DO. Thought for a moment Harry had him beat but a great ride from Dickie


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If it's DO
You have to have a go
And follow his say so
Cos you'll often get the dough.

Yet again DO's well reasoned long shot delivers the goods. I would not have picked it in a month of Sunday's but can now have a decent freebie punt on a ew double tomorrow
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1

Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
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:adore::adore: And no I didn't see it or back it - Brilliant!!!
 
Ha ha well done. I must admit I was spitting feathers after the race in my usual fashion (had Willoughby Court and 'Harry in a double) but awesome work.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1

Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
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Superb-I thought there could be a boilover -just not Beer Goggles.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1

Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
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Top bombing Dessie. Shame I didn't see this earlier.
 
A few qualifiers today but maybe yesterday used up all my luck for the next wee while...

Nwb 2.50 Jaleo 20/1 - My main bet in this race is Coeur De Lion but I do feel Jaleo is a winner waiting to happen somewhere/sometime. I've been interested in him since I saw him fall at the first this time last season, then get up and race past the others and clear all the way home. He's maybe just a very generous type but it grabbed my attention that day so I'm willing to save on him, just in case.

Nwb 3.00 - Obviously SFP is my big fancy for this with Coneygree as the main back-up but I've taken another three I think are just too long for their respective chances:

Double Ross (50/1) is 2lbs lower than when an excellent third to Native River last year. He didn't run again after that so maybe injured himself. The stable is in great form and I don't think they would run him if they thought he was totally past it.

Bigbadjohn is 100/1 in places but I've taken 80/1 with 7 places with Hills. This is a Feltham winner, albeit perhaps a somewhat substandard one. He's also got jumping issues as well as a temperamental ones - he could be the horse who put the 'mental' in temperamental - but I love him. He's a big beast of a horse and I've felt since the Feltham that he was a possible for this race so I can't really not back him!

Southfield Royale is 50s in places but I took 40/1 with the 7 places. Split Tea For Two and Native River in a very good Feltham the year before and ran pretty much to the same form in Minella Rocco's NH Chase, arguably the hottest renewal of that race in modern times if not ever. But it's been downhill since then, prompting the handicapper to lower him from 147 to 138. A wee bit like Double Ross, I can't believe a shrewd operator like Mulholland would run him here if he was past it and there was plenty of promise in his Badger Ales comeback run.
 
swedish chef said:
Cheltenham 1.15 Sheer Poetry 40/1 - 6 places SkyBet. Won readily l/t/o over fences and if form is as good as it looks, she could be well in back over hurdles. Lots of question marks over her temperament and ability to handle soft going but that is reflected in the odds.
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For the record the selection above finished 3rd.

Thursday
Leicester 3.25 Georgieshore 20/1 e/way (Bet365 & BetVictor) Beaten a shd in this race 2 years ago off an 8lb higher mark - trainer in good form.
 
Wrote this for my place a bit of a daft one and possibly neither will make the final line ups but thought I'd post it up anyway as I at least think there is an angle to be worked in the King George even if I'm on a complete boat.

Crazy Antepost E/w doubles

I wasn't really going to bother posting these up but thought if ever some miracle occurs where I actually pull one off I'd like it documented. So the only rules are both selections must be huge prices I personally like to aim for at least 33/1 for each selection as for a £10/ew double it pays over 10k if successful. It might seem like a fruitless task as its fairly impossible to land one never mind two such bets but 2 places at those prices pays over £800 quid which is enough for another 40 attempts. I think in the main its a little easier to do after Christmas when you have Cheltenham and Aintree coming up and plenty of AP markets to go at. I suppose really they don't even have to be ante post bets but for now that's what I'll go with. I have to admit I don't think this first effort will be one of my more productive ones but conclusions were reached after a disgracefully boring family party and plenty of booze.

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Guitar Pete 33/1 4 places 1/4 Bet365

I quite fancied him to run a big race in the Paddy Power and he was quite well supported in the market to do so. However I firstly thought the ground was really against him on the day and in running he was hampered badly ( losing probably 15-20 lengths ) so his chance had passed. Although he did still manage to finish ninth in a bunch with Foxtail hill and Double treasure. This race can cut up quite badly and is usually a weaker version than the PP and I figure if getting better ground (can't be much worse than that day) and a clear run he stands a chance of being thereabouts.

King George IV Chase Double Shuffle 66/1 3 places 1/5 Bet365

Madness I hear you cry ! That's exactly what I said when I read Tom George suggesting this as the target should the ground not be too soft. However Tom George knows the time of day when it comes to this event as Nacarat used to run some crackers in it and he too went a similar path after running in the same Handicap as Double shuffle ran in last year. It was Double shuffles 10th chase start and was running off 149 he made a mistake 3 out that should of taken him out of the race but he battled back gamely for 2nd he was raised 2lb for doing so. I think its quite possible that without that mistake he'd have won and been put up to around 156. That still really would leave him with a stone to find to win this and that sort of improvement would rarely be found with a horse with so many runs under his belt. However he has only had 2 starts at 3 miles and both around Kempton. Winning the handicap at the Christmas meeting and then that second in what used to be the racing post chase. Most of his time has been spent at 2m4f which just too short for him. It still sounds a bit far fetched but I can at least see him running up to 160 ish which might be good enough to frame and if we look at the field in betting order or at least the front of the market it gives a bit of hope.

Might Bite my idea of the winner but a complete fruitcake so who knows what to expect.
Bristol de mai Soft/Heavy dependant ? Haydock Specialist ?
Fox Norton never been further than 2m4F possible NR
Sizing John N/R
Douvan never been further than 2m1f been out injured possible NR
ThistleCrack after a laboured effort on comeback possibly finished ?
Djakadam possible contender good sort if this is indeed the plan then 20/1 not a bad shout either AP
Road to respect possible
Tea for Two 4th beat in a 5 runner renewal of this last year but a possible runner and place chance
Top Notch good sort but whether O' Henderson fancy's taking on his own Might bite ?.Also entered in Peterborugh possible N/R ?
Whisper N/R
Coneygree N/R

Then a host of outsiders none of which sure to come and possibly not with much better claims than the old Double Shuffle. So that's the plan if nothing else turns up then we are definitely in with a squeak

For the 20 quid lay out pays just over 20k for the wins and over 1k for the places.


Feel free to have a go fellas. I'll stick one of these up every now and then for a laugh.
Last edited by broadsword; Yesterday at 02:57 PM.
 
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Well its not really my place as such and I did mention it when I joined as I know a couple of your lads were members over there sometime ago and used to pop in from time to time. Its Ohracing forum ( posted under the name of Broadsword for quite sometime) run by Jamie Taylor who you might be familiar with Colin. He doesn't have the time to run it these days and hasn't for some time I think on the home page we're still building up to the Cheltenham festival of 2013 haha. I call it my place only on the basis that I never did anything online no facebook or anything like that and OHR was the only place I ever posted. Its a very long boring story as to why I have such a fondness for the place but in short it helped me turn my life around which at one time was in a fairly dark place I found that posting on the forum helped distract me from the madness. Jamie along with another guy who used to post on there under the user name of Spook (who if I'm not mistaken still posts on here under the name of Warbler) taught me so much about horse racing and were just in general really nice helpful guys the kind of people that I'd never met in real life as I came from one of the roughest council estates in the country. With Jamie too busy and Spook having lost interest in the sport (A shame really as he was as close to a horse racing genius as I'd ever seen) the place has died a death and there are just a couple of good lads still posting I shouldn't imagine it'll be too long before Jamie calls it a day tbh.

I thought I'd give talking horses as a try as Ohr is on its last legs. If I'm honest I'd heard some bad things about the place but since I've been popping in I've had no problems and have found a fair few of the people who post on here to be really knowledgeable guys and seems some decent banter amongst the regulars. I've tried to adapt with the times a bit and tried twitter and things like that but IMO its all a bit ****. I think its a shame racing forums are struggling a bit as for people like me who don't really get to interact with proper racing people in real life it's really the ideal format. I'm a little out of touch with the game at the minute as I had to take a bit of a break for the best part of a couple of years but hopefully once I'm back in the swing of things I can contribute a bit more to the discussions myself. I hope the guys on here can bare with me a bit as I'm not the best educated of fellas so my posts might be difficult to read at times but I do try to make them as readable as possible and unfortunately my selections are usually worse than my writing skills.

But if its alright with the majority on here then I'll keep sticking in my two penneth ;)
 
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