The Long Shot Thread

Cheltenham 3.05 My Hometown 33/1 e/way - Out of the handicap but was only 13L behind stablemate Josies Orders at Punchestown l/t/o on first attempt at cross country. Selection is now 12lb better off with fav Josies Orders today, so should finish a lot closer to him? If stamina not an issue? Trained by the master of these races and hopefully will improve.
 
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Only one qualifier today:

John Constable 28/1 Chl 3.05

This one does owe me, I have to say. I was all over him like a rash for the 2016 Schweppes off something like 139 but he didn't run. I then backed him in the County, the Scottish Champion and the Swinton and he was awful in every one. He continued to run badly the following season until suddenly showing his true form off 129 at Aintree National meeting when tipping when a close second at the last. Then off 135 he hacked up by 14 lengths in the Swinton. That was the horse I thought I was backing in the previous season's Schweppes. He then won the big Market Rasen hurdle off 150. Those last two runs were technically this season but to all intents and purposes they were the back end of last season. He had a jog round Newmarket in the Cesarewitch, seemingly having been told he was carrying some of my money...

I think John Constable's chance is on a par with The New One's but I think The New One is far too short in the market.

All the money seems to be for Melon but I can’t help thinking he needs to be taken on. He beat zip last time but is entitled to be a lot better this season having run a fine second in the Supreme. My Tent Or Yours has the form in the book but the ground might be a concern - as it might be for JC - so with The New One looking vulnerable at shortish odds I’m looking at Ch’Tibello and John Constable at decent prices with preference for the former but the latter has to be backed at the price.
 
Maxbet said:
REFEREE....yellow card......sliding in a rule breaker....
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I'M THE FVCKING REFEREE!!! :lol:

The text was taken from my weekly missive. It wasn't my intention to slide it in (I'll leave that until I meet ...) just making it clear JC wasn't my main bet in the race.
 
Danny said:
Wrote this for my place a bit of a daft one and possibly neither will make the final line ups but thought I'd post it up anyway as I at least think there is an angle to be worked in the King George even if I'm on a complete boat.

Crazy Antepost E/w doubles

I wasn't really going to bother posting these up but thought if ever some miracle occurs where I actually pull one off I'd like it documented. So the only rules are both selections must be huge prices I personally like to aim for at least 33/1 for each selection as for a £10/ew double it pays over 10k if successful. It might seem like a fruitless task as its fairly impossible to land one never mind two such bets but 2 places at those prices pays over £800 quid which is enough for another 40 attempts. I think in the main its a little easier to do after Christmas when you have Cheltenham and Aintree coming up and plenty of AP markets to go at. I suppose really they don't even have to be ante post bets but for now that's what I'll go with. I have to admit I don't think this first effort will be one of my more productive ones but conclusions were reached after a disgracefully boring family party and plenty of booze.

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Guitar Pete 33/1 4 places 1/4 Bet365

I quite fancied him to run a big race in the Paddy Power and he was quite well supported in the market to do so. However I firstly thought the ground was really against him on the day and in running he was hampered badly ( losing probably 15-20 lengths ) so his chance had passed. Although he did still manage to finish ninth in a bunch with Foxtail hill and Double treasure. This race can cut up quite badly and is usually a weaker version than the PP and I figure if getting better ground (can't be much worse than that day) and a clear run he stands a chance of being thereabouts.

King George IV Chase Double Shuffle 66/1 3 places 1/5 Bet365

Madness I hear you cry ! That's exactly what I said when I read Tom George suggesting this as the target should the ground not be too soft. However Tom George knows the time of day when it comes to this event as Nacarat used to run some crackers in it and he too went a similar path after running in the same Handicap as Double shuffle ran in last year. It was Double shuffles 10th chase start and was running off 149 he made a mistake 3 out that should of taken him out of the race but he battled back gamely for 2nd he was raised 2lb for doing so. I think its quite possible that without that mistake he'd have won and been put up to around 156. That still really would leave him with a stone to find to win this and that sort of improvement would rarely be found with a horse with so many runs under his belt. However he has only had 2 starts at 3 miles and both around Kempton. Winning the handicap at the Christmas meeting and then that second in what used to be the racing post chase. Most of his time has been spent at 2m4f which just too short for him. It still sounds a bit far fetched but I can at least see him running up to 160 ish which might be good enough to frame and if we look at the field in betting order or at least the front of the market it gives a bit of hope.

Might Bite my idea of the winner but a complete fruitcake so who knows what to expect.
Bristol de mai Soft/Heavy dependant ? Haydock Specialist ?
Fox Norton never been further than 2m4F possible NR
Sizing John N/R
Douvan never been further than 2m1f been out injured possible NR
ThistleCrack after a laboured effort on comeback possibly finished ?
Djakadam possible contender good sort if this is indeed the plan then 20/1 not a bad shout either AP
Road to respect possible
Tea for Two 4th beat in a 5 runner renewal of this last year but a possible runner and place chance
Top Notch good sort but whether O' Henderson fancy's taking on his own Might bite ?.Also entered in Peterborugh possible N/R ?
Whisper N/R
Coneygree N/R

Then a host of outsiders none of which sure to come and possibly not with much better claims than the old Double Shuffle. So that's the plan if nothing else turns up then we are definitely in with a squeak

For the 20 quid lay out pays just over 20k for the wins and over 1k for the places.


Feel free to have a go fellas. I'll stick one of these up every now and then for a laugh.
Last edited by broadsword; Yesterday at 02:57 PM.
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Although the first leg of this was somewhat marred by the loss of Starichitect and is no way a circumstance that someone likes to gain from it does leave me in quite a situation. Should by some miracle the second leg come off after looking at the bet properly its worth 24k for the win and £1300 for a first 3 finish. The field as Des pointed out earlier doesn't look to be cutting up as Badly as I'd quite hoped and the Inclusion of Whisper who was supposedly at the time I placed the bet on his way to the Cotswold chase and the fact Disko looks like lining up (the only gigginstown entry I was worried about) has made any sort of return look less and less likely.

Still we live in hope and if by some miracle he can pull it off it might not be the strangest thing about the bet as at the time the King George goes off I believe I'm booked to be on some sort of Yellow Submarine somewhere off the coast of Lanzarote :lol:. If ever I wanted a gambling story to tell the Grandkids then this would be it :) Doubt I'll get much signal at the bottom of the ocean and I'm yet to come to any solutions to this problem that don't involve upsetting the Mrs :lol:
 
Belated congrats on Guitar Pete, Danny. As you know, he was on my radar ahead of the Mackeson but I interpreted his run there as a negative plus his price was nowhere near as attractive for the other day. I thought he had a chance of sorts but would need others to underperform. Didn't think it would take the gut-wrenching Starchitect incident for it to happen but very well done indeed on a 33/1 winner - a credit to the thread! :)

As for your double with Double Shuffle, I'd seriously tempted to lay it off to the full amount but there's no way I'd have that kind of money in my Betfair account to enable me to do it :lol:

Let it ride and see how it goes. My wife still reminds me of the time I was waiting on the last leg for the ITV7. If Carlsberg did schadenfreude...
 
I wouldn't be tempted to lay it off or cash out for even for a second Des. Although most would scoff at his chances as most do with unlikely outsiders I do think if he lines up and if getting a decent surface to go on he's capable of running a very big race. I've spent a bit of time watching the replays of his runs at the track last year and also his run behind Top Notch lto and I think he's capable of a fair bit more. I certainly think he's capable of running to 160 around here whether or not that will be good enough to frame remains to be seen. I think if you looked at the likely line up at least you'd have to question how Bristol de mai will fair if facing better ground, you'd also be hard pressed to fancy Thistlecrack after how he blew up LTO although not beyond the realms he could bounce back but it didn't look good to me and I wouldn't exactly be shitting myself at the prospect of beating Fox Norton here as I've seen better 2 milers than him turn up here and disappoint. Might Bite and Whisper do look pretty solid and I would have rather seen the latter out of the way. But If you give those the first 2 spots on the podium I think that leaves 3rd spot open for the likes of Disko, Tea for Two and Double Shuffle to battle it out for and at £20 layout for £1300 I'd let that stand all day long.

Prayer mat is out :)
 
frontrunner said:
Nice one Danny , what kind of cash out if any are you being offered out of interest.
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Actually had a single on him at 25/1 once he made the Decs on Monday so its not as if I hadn't made a few quid from the situation anyway. Its not within my spirit to do such things anyway I'm a true gambler. I've always been of the opinion a few hundred doesn't make that much difference in the great scheme of things I'd still have to turn up for work tonight and it certainly wouldn't elevate me to another level in my punting. I've had a lot better opportunities than this down the years to win the ever elusive 5 figure sum all have fallen by the wayside and at least 3 have done so by a hairs breath one would include Sunnyhill Boy being beat in the National after being matched at 1.02 in running but never for a second do I regret ever letting the money roll.
 
Danny said:
I certainly think he's capable of running to 160 around here
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Yes, that's around where I have him too, which is why I have serious doubts about his winning. But then I suspect you have similar doubts. If I'm reading it correctly, you're not really harbouring hopes of the win? Either way, the returns to layout are substantial and fully justified the punt. Well done regardless and I'll be cheering for him as loudly as anyone if he's in with a chance!
 
Yeah that's my thoughts Des I struggle to see what he can do with Might bite and Whisper tbh but Might Bite could be a help to him factoring in the places. I don't think they will be hanging about here with the way Might Bite and Bristol go about their business. Anything that holds any serious intent of challenging Might Bite for the win has to try and get within range at some point and in doing so probably compromises their chances of placing. Not sure I'm explaining that clearly but in trying to beat Might Bite they may well end up finishing on pogo sticks (having been pushed too hard early) and it could be set up for something like Double Shuffle who is a strong stayer to run through beaten horses for minor honours.

Probably clutching at straws but in this situation that's the best I can do.
 
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Looking like I won't even get a run for my money. Entered up for Saturday and gone walkies on the machine :(


Live by the sword, die by the sword I suppose.

Back to the drawing board.
 
Today's qualifiers:

Asc 3.00 - Bigbadjohn and Ptit Zig, both 25/1

Prior to returning to chasing last time against Top Notch, Ptit Zig had been racing over hurdles since unseating in the race won by Triolo D’Alene at Kempton almost two years ago having previously failed by 1¾ lengths to concede 5lbs to Vautour here. It’s a bit of a leap of faith in Nicholls and Twiston-Davies but he probably shouldn’t be 25/1 for this race so is worth a small saver. Bigbadjohn is probably riskier but he’s a winner of a Flintham which, although substandard, is still working out.

Asc 3.35 - Fergall 33/1 and Evening Hush 100/1

I’ll have some sickness insurance on Fergall and Evening Hush. The latter now owes me but I wouldn’t be surprised if she were being laid out for the Schweppes while Fergall was the only one to give John Constable a race in the Swinton prior to tipping up two out after going clear probably a wee bit too soon. The handicapper has left him alone for that. Had he fallen at the last he’d probably have gone up about seven pounds since the winner went up no fewer than 16lbs.
 
Ascot 3:35 Top Othe Ra 50/1.
Most interested they're sending him over for this. Could be to get a better H'Cap Mark with festival in mind, but I've taken a chance today at a big price. Having only won once over hurdles in 5 years he's now won 4 times in the past 6 months. 2 of those big handicaps. Not sure exactly what clicked recently, but I was impressed with his win 2/3 runs ago and marked him down as one that could win another nice H'Cap pot. Hopefully today is the day. Each way 4 places at 50/1 or 5 places 40/1.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk
 
Danny said:
Looking like I won't even get a run for my money. Entered up for Saturday and gone walkies on the machine :(


Live by the sword, die by the sword I suppose.

Back to the drawing board.
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Well he's made the final line up. I fly out tomorrow so doubt I'll be posting much until the New year. Have a good Christmas and all that shizzle lads and I'll see you on the other side.

Be lucky ;)
 
If you are going to pick two selection's in a race then you are cutting the prices in half and in most cases; below 20/1 (Dutching) just saying...
 
Maxbet said:
If you are going to pick two selection's in a race then you are cutting the prices in half and in most cases; below 20/1 (Dutching) just saying...
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If you're measuring success in terms of return to outlay, yes.

But that's not the aim. The aim is to identify 20/1+ shots that really should be a lot shorter in the betting. If there happens to be more than one in the race so be it. Often the bigger and more valuable the race, the more likely that something is under the radar at a big price.

More often than not the ones I post here are not my main bets in the race.
 
Danny said:
Wrote this for my place a bit of a daft one and possibly neither will make the final line ups but thought I'd post it up anyway as I at least think there is an angle to be worked in the King George even if I'm on a complete boat.

Crazy Antepost E/w doubles

I wasn't really going to bother posting these up but thought if ever some miracle occurs where I actually pull one off I'd like it documented. So the only rules are both selections must be huge prices I personally like to aim for at least 33/1 for each selection as for a £10/ew double it pays over 10k if successful. It might seem like a fruitless task as its fairly impossible to land one never mind two such bets but 2 places at those prices pays over £800 quid which is enough for another 40 attempts. I think in the main its a little easier to do after Christmas when you have Cheltenham and Aintree coming up and plenty of AP markets to go at. I suppose really they don't even have to be ante post bets but for now that's what I'll go with. I have to admit I don't think this first effort will be one of my more productive ones but conclusions were reached after a disgracefully boring family party and plenty of booze.

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Guitar Pete 33/1 4 places 1/4 Bet365

I quite fancied him to run a big race in the Paddy Power and he was quite well supported in the market to do so. However I firstly thought the ground was really against him on the day and in running he was hampered badly ( losing probably 15-20 lengths ) so his chance had passed. Although he did still manage to finish ninth in a bunch with Foxtail hill and Double treasure. This race can cut up quite badly and is usually a weaker version than the PP and I figure if getting better ground (can't be much worse than that day) and a clear run he stands a chance of being thereabouts.

King George IV Chase Double Shuffle 66/1 3 places 1/5 Bet365

Madness I hear you cry ! That's exactly what I said when I read Tom George suggesting this as the target should the ground not be too soft. However Tom George knows the time of day when it comes to this event as Nacarat used to run some crackers in it and he too went a similar path after running in the same Handicap as Double shuffle ran in last year. It was Double shuffles 10th chase start and was running off 149 he made a mistake 3 out that should of taken him out of the race but he battled back gamely for 2nd he was raised 2lb for doing so. I think its quite possible that without that mistake he'd have won and been put up to around 156. That still really would leave him with a stone to find to win this and that sort of improvement would rarely be found with a horse with so many runs under his belt. However he has only had 2 starts at 3 miles and both around Kempton. Winning the handicap at the Christmas meeting and then that second in what used to be the racing post chase. Most of his time has been spent at 2m4f which just too short for him. It still sounds a bit far fetched but I can at least see him running up to 160 ish which might be good enough to frame and if we look at the field in betting order or at least the front of the market it gives a bit of hope.

Might Bite my idea of the winner but a complete fruitcake so who knows what to expect.
Bristol de mai Soft/Heavy dependant ? Haydock Specialist ?
Fox Norton never been further than 2m4F possible NR
Sizing John N/R
Douvan never been further than 2m1f been out injured possible NR
ThistleCrack after a laboured effort on comeback possibly finished ?
Djakadam possible contender good sort if this is indeed the plan then 20/1 not a bad shout either AP
Road to respect possible
Tea for Two 4th beat in a 5 runner renewal of this last year but a possible runner and place chance
Top Notch good sort but whether O' Henderson fancy's taking on his own Might bite ?.Also entered in Peterborugh possible N/R ?
Whisper N/R
Coneygree N/R

Then a host of outsiders none of which sure to come and possibly not with much better claims than the old Double Shuffle. So that's the plan if nothing else turns up then we are definitely in with a squeak

For the 20 quid lay out pays just over 20k for the wins and over 1k for the places.


Feel free to have a go fellas. I'll stick one of these up every now and then for a laugh.
Last edited by broadsword; Yesterday at 02:57 PM.
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Incredible call Danny and so unlucky but very, very nice return.
 
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