The Long Shot Thread

Nothing at all wrong with your writing skills, Danny.

As far as I am concerned Talking Horse has acquired an asset in your posts and you are very welcome.

The banter is normally quite light-hearted until the “fishwives” start winding the Grasshopper up.

Do you favour the whippets or the slow old boats that failed on the flat so try to make a bob or two over obstacles?

Do you get to go racing at all? It is normally easy to find someone who will have a chat.

I have found most of the press and TV people are easy to approach (only one I didn’t get on with was Julian Wilson, and he ain’t around anymore).

Anyway keep posting, it’s all good stuff and very welcome.
 
Erm its very strange but at one time I was very national hunt racing and everyone on OHR was much more the speed rating flat racing types. Just before I took my break though I was seeming to do better punting on the flat and as such enjoyed it a whole lot more. I've come over here and I've already gathered that amongst quite a few of the regs that any mention of the words "flat racing" is an act of treason. So I tread carefully when I say I enjoy both codes :). Do I get to go racing ? Not a regular race goer but hope to be in years to come, my local track would be Wolverhampton but not that keen to tell the truth but I've done Towcester, Chester and a few others but for me I've done the New years day meet at Cheltenham a couple of times and for me that is the absolute pinnacle. The first time I went I got there really early probably the first to arrive and I just looked over the course on a frosty morning thought I'd died and gone to heaven just the most beautiful sight.

Anyway gotta get to bed as I'm on the night shift but thanks for the kind words Colin.
 
Thanks for the input, Danny. I like to peruse others' thoughts, especially where big outsiders are concerned. I'm genuinely not particularly impressed when people look for some kind of kudos for tipping an odds-on shot. To me the idea is to beat the book rather than follow it and I've used your approach quite often.

Guitar Pete was on my radar for the Mackeson too so I can see where you're coming from with it. I also like Double Shuffle generally but I just wonder about the King George for him. I'm not sure there will be as many NRs as you expect.

I'll engage with the spirit of your approach in due course. I don't have many longshots ante-post and the ones I do have at upwards of 33s are off-the-wall speculation, a bit like Double Shuffle.

They are:

UTPT (Gold Cup, 50s and 100s)
SFP (Gold Cup) 100/1

So no double available.

The others are 25s and less so don't qualify.

I've no doubt I will have 33/1 shots in due course and will put them up.

Good luck with yours.

I should also say a belated 'well done' to Chef for his 40/1 third. I knew it had happened and I came on to the thread to congratulate him at the time but couldn't see his post so thought it was on another thread (I'm easily confuddled these days) and didn't want to start trawling... So well done, Swedish Chef!
 
swedish chef said:
For the record the selection above finished 3rd.

Thursday
Leicester 3.25 Georgieshore 20/1 e/way (Bet365 & BetVictor) Beaten a shd in this race 2 years ago off an 8lb higher mark - trainer in good form.
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Bloody hell that was close chef. Backed down to 9/2 as well. If he hadn’t jumped every hurdle like a fence he’d have easily been 3rd, maybe better.

Great recommendation despite the result.


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TheBear said:
Bloody hell that was close chef. Backed down to 9/2 as well. If he hadn’t jumped every hurdle like a fence he’d have easily been 3rd, maybe better.

Great recommendation despite the result.


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:lol: Yes jumping the hurdles like they were national fences was a sight to behold - no doubt it cost him a place.
 
Sedgefield 1.15 Red Ochre 80/1 e/way (Betfair Sportsbook & P. Power) Only a dozen lengths behind the even money fav today when that horse was having his 3rd run of the season and the selection his first. Was seen to be finishing well on second start. Is joint top rated with fav on RPR's.
Negatives - having third run and could be going for h'cap mark and may need a longer trip. However at the odds is worth a speculative pound e/way of anyone's money.
 
Chelmsford 8:45 - FAREEQ - Ex Haggas inmate, showed potential as a juvenile, the 25's is going.
The market support looks interesting.
 
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swedish chef said:
Sedgefield 1.15 Red Ochre 80/1 e/way (Betfair Sportsbook & P. Power) Only a dozen lengths behind the even money fav today when that horse was having his 3rd run of the season and the selection his first. Was seen to be finishing well on second start. Is joint top rated with fav on RPR's.
Negatives - having third run and could be going for h'cap mark and may need a longer trip. However at the odds is worth a speculative pound e/way of anyone's money.
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Excellent, Chef! Took 66/1 ew this morning then forgot all about it! Many thanks.:thumbsup:
 
Three qualifiers for me today.

San 2.10 Evening Hush 28/1 - Evan Williams stated last season that Evening Hush was the best he’d ever trained after she won at Aintree and went so far as to say he couldn’t see her beat in the Finale at Chepstow next time. That was her cue to start downing tools and she’s been gubbed an aggregate of 73 lengths in four subsequent runs. She went up to 144 after Aintree so could be lobbed in off 11lbs lower here, plus the impressive claimer’s 5lbs allowance. Then again, maybe the trainer got her all wrong.

San 3.30 Milansbar 25/1 - Milansbar owes me big time now. He’s been off form badly for a long time but showed a bit more on his reappearance. He was arguably the best horse in the race off 145 in the 2016 Midlands National and is 11lbs lower here.

Ain 3.10 No No Mac 66/1 - No No Mac is the outsider of the field but can win. I’m not convinced his form merits the 8lbs drop he’s been given following two moderate runs this season. He stays three miles and acts well in heavy so if he can stay in touch he might be one of the stronger finishers.
 
I have quite a heavy layout today with more bets than I'd normally have and some quite tusky ones to boot. I think the pressure might have cracked me up :lol: As that is the only reason I can find that when searching for a couple of Long price savers that I've found myself coming to the conclusion that I can give Lord Windemere a chance at 40/1 in the Becher.

I can't can't recall ever backing the horse and the only time I came close to doing so but didn't bother was when he won the Gold cup and that would have been only on the basis that he was a big price considering he'd won the RSA the year before. Anyway I was looking at his record FTO over the past couple of seasons.

Beaten hd by Champange Fever
Beaten 5L by Don Cossack

Whilst it would be ridiculous to take that form literally its worth bearing in mind that those were both run over trips too short for him and in the context of running in a Becher off a mark of 144 then its fair. Whilst you'd struggle to find many decent runs on his profile over the last couple of seasons he's put up some sort of show when Beaten 8 lengths by Carlingford Lough in Grd1 company which again in the context of the challenge he faces today isn't too bad. He completed albeit back in 7th back here in April and was given a hold up ride which these days in the National isn't ideal. That was on a lot better ground than they'll face today in fact if you believe the going stick then its going to be awful. This has been a race in the past that has fell to tough veterans and perhaps first time out will be the time to catch him now attempting a trip that should be more suitable. Touch wood he hasn't ever fallen since his debut over hurdles and today could simply come down to a case of what can complete. He was tried in a first time tounge tie in the National which seemed to improve his performance but its absent today so whether they've had his breathing done through the summer I'm not sure. I'm always wary in this race that horses can just be turning up to get dropped a few pounds for the big one back in the spring so who knows.

Not sure I believe in it myself but had a few quid at the price.

Potrait King was another I considered at a price somehow managed to make the frame in Topham in the Spring :blink: which quite where he's found the speed from to do that I'll never know as I've missed the last couple of seasons but last I remember he was an Eider type boat. He's a poor horse but off 10 stone he's one who can probably keep going forever if the race fall apart which given conditions it may well do.
 
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Maybe I should put some sickness insurance on Lord Windermere too. I hadn't investigated his profile to the same depth but - cue howls of aftertiming accusatons - I did back him in both the RSA and Gold Cup as well as in subsequent races when he's run badly. Worth some fun money at the price.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Blatant after-timing ref, Definitly Red.
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My appeal to the red-card-rescinding panel will be predicated on the following quote:

The outsider of the field for me is Lord Windermere (33/1). He looked a natural for this course last year in the RSA and although he’s been disappointing this season, the way the stable’s Spring Heeled skipped round the track yesterday reminded me that Culloty is more than capable of getting them ready for this meeting.
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I accept the opening wording is ambiguous though.

Unfortunately, I absent-mindedly over-wrote my piece on the previous year's RSA and saved the new item by mistake under the old title. I don't do that so often these days.
 
I'll throw Alpha Tauri up for tomorro. Alpha Tauri is a course specialist at Southwell recording 11 wins all at this course and distance. Runs off 72 tomorrow having won off 74 a few months back, I'm happy to take a modest ew punt on him being on the mood tomorrow. I love this horse and 50-1 is too tempting to pass up on betfair. Hopefully the veteran brings home the Christmas ham tomorrow.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't believe Colin was trying to crash the thread, Danny. It was merely a pun.
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Yeah mate I got that..I was merely being daft and silly and joyful.

Anyway time to try and break my curse on this thread and throw out a winner and I'm also dabbling at Southwell as we all have to get our hands dirty at sometime.

In the 3.00 at Southwell tomorrow Showdance kid 25/1 makes his debut at the track. I had him clocking a good time for the grade at Wolverhampton behind Glenn coco a couple of runs back (Glenn Coco won again since). He then just bumped into one at Leicester but beat the rest of the field well. Last time out he looked a bit disappointing but was tried in first time blinkers raced too keenly and faded badly. Switched yards since and first try for a new trainer who has decided to step him back up to a mile. He has tried the mile previously but that was before he'd gone to Neville Bycroft and before he went to him all his form was terrible regardless of trip.

In 3 runs over 7F prior to his try in Blinkers he earned comments of kept on, kept on well and stayed on same pace so although that's not screaming for a step up in trip and I'd much rather read something along the lines of "hurtling last 100yards" it does suggest that he might well be able to see out the mile for new trainer Kevin Frost.


New trainer,new track, new..ish trip so obviously not one to be going mental on but his figures are right up there with the best of these and with excuses for his latest effort which was poor but he'd been in good form before that. At 25/1 generally he might be worth a shot.
 
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Danny said:
Yeah mate I got that..I was merely being daft and silly and joyful.

Anyway time to try and break my curse on this thread and throw out a winner and I'm also dabbling at Southwell as we all have to get our hands dirty at sometime.

In the 3.00 at Southwell tomorrow Showdance kid 25/1 makes his debut at the track. I had him clocking a good time for the grade at Wolverhampton behind Glenn coco a couple of runs back (Glenn Coco won again since). He then just bumped into one at Leicester but beat the rest of the field well. Last time out he looked a bit disappointing but was tried in first time blinkers raced too keenly and faded badly. Switched yards since and first try for a new trainer who has decided to step him back up to a mile. He has tried the mile previously but that was before he'd gone to Neville Bycroft and before he went to him all his form was terrible regardless of trip.

In 3 runs over 7F prior to his try in Blinkers he earned comments of kept on, kept on well and stayed on same pace so although that's not screaming for a step up in trip and I'd much rather read something along the lines of "hurtling last 100yards" it does suggest that he might well be able to see out the mile for new trainer Kevin Frost.


New trainer,new track, new..ish trip so obviously not one to be going mental on but his figures are right up there with the best of these and with excuses for his latest effort which was poor but he'd been in good form before that. At 25/1 generally he might be worth a shot.
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Weaker than Hospital tea in the market and ran terribly. Might be worth keeping an eye out for him when he returns to tapeta though. :(
 
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