The Long Shot Thread

Tried a few more e/w doubles again trying to abuse the NRNB system.

Another selection in the Champion Hurdle and one I like a bit more than Ch'tibello is Call Me Lord 40/1 betfred NRNB reasoning on the Betfair Hurdle thread. I like the idea so much so that I've used him 3 times in doubles with the following.

Gold Cup Double Shuffle 33/1
Gold Cup Blacklion 25/1

Stayers Hurdle Yanworth 10/1

Sorry I haven't got time for reasoning but Double Shuffle I've covered a fair bit. Blacklion a 161 rated RSA winner probably National bound. Yanworth probably RSA Bound but if they have a go in the Cleeve before hand he'll be favourite by off time I think.
 
Two for me today:

Kem 2.40 Man From Mars 66/1 - Nick Williams has had three winners from only six runners in the last ten years. Lizzie Kelly might be able to get Dentley De Mee down to 10-3 but she probably wouldn’t be able to draw all of her claim on Man From Mars so I’m not reading too much into the jockey bookings other than that in his current form Cobden is not a negative and the fact they’re going for this first time up raises the possibility that they’ve been protecting his mark even though his chance isn’t otherwise obvious. Man From Mars has to be a bet despite his huge odds.

War 3.35 Milansbar 20/1 - He isn't my main bet in the race and really I'm just having some sickness insurance on him. He's clear top on his best old form and if he can get to the front early and stay there, hopefully getting to dictate his own pace, he can win. Whether he can manage that is another matter and he's more likely to blow out again but he's a cliff horse for me now. I would have put him up last week had the price been available, to be honest but this is a much lesser race and he's a bigger price for having flopped.
 
I actually thought Milans Bar was of interest he's in first time blinkers as well I think Des.

I've had a good look at the Lanzarote this week and backed William Henry earlier in the week as he's had a similar approach to Oscara Dara and still looks well handicapped to me. When looking through for dangers I actually thought Williams other horse Dentley was more of a threat than prices suggest. Wishful dreaming has a good record after a break, has a first time tongue tie on his first run for his new trainer and is on a workable mark. Spirit of the games also could go well at a price. Thought those 3 all represented some value.

Good luck though Des.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Two for me today:

Kem 2.40 Man From Mars 66/1 - Nick Williams has had three winners from only six runners in the last ten years. Lizzie Kelly might be able to get Dentley De Mee down to 10-3 but she probably wouldn’t be able to draw all of her claim on Man From Mars so I’m not reading too much into the jockey bookings other than that in his current form Cobden is not a negative and the fact they’re going for this first time up raises the possibility that they’ve been protecting his mark even though his chance isn’t otherwise obvious. Man From Mars has to be a bet despite his huge odds.
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I follow the stable as I've said on here countless times and i prefer Dentley de Mee to be honest. On the face of it that horse faces a tough task after a hike in the weights lto but I feel a stronger pace we'll get here will really suit and compensate for that. Backed him ew at 25s
 
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Man From Mars was just weighing them up there. Gave up the outside to no-one and a bad mistake six out put him out of the race. He did well to get back on the heels of the pack, still on the outside, on the turn for home but wasn't really asked any serious questions at any stage. One to watch for, I reckon.
 
Fantastic tipping Maurice, I'm sure a few followed you as well. Pulverised the opposition today.
 
Danny said:
I actually thought Milans Bar was of interest he's in first time blinkers as well I think Des.

I've had a good look at the Lanzarote this week and backed William Henry earlier in the week.
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What price was you on at , Danny? Well done BTW.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
War 3.35 Milansbar 20/1 - He isn't my main bet in the race and really I'm just having some sickness insurance on him. He's clear top on his best old form and if he can get to the front early and stay there, hopefully getting to dictate his own pace, he can win.
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When he got to the lead my hopes rose and when he was able to stay there they rose a bit more. It's easy to say Bryony Frost gave him a brilliant ride as I reckon anyone who got him there early and kept him there would have won on him. The first-time headgear (which I wasn't aware of until Danny mentioned it) might have been the difference but he was handicapped to win like that on his best form.

I was pleased when Danny also gave it a mensh earlier but there is definitely something all the more gratifying about finding them at big prices, I have to admit!
 
Well done des with Milansbar..i put him up as well.last week wasnt his true running and like you,when he took it up i thought today was the day.
 
Well done and thanks DO. Some superb, well reasoned winners lately. Bearing in mind the prices of some of your selections you would certainly be giving a number of pro tipsters a run for their money.
 
Double Handful said:
Jumped miles left and lost substantial ground at every hurdle and at one point looked like it could still get involved. If this is dropped a couple lbs and goes left handed over similar distance and ground, could be one at a big price.

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We'll see tomorrow if De Dani's Bach is declared on Wednesday at Fairyhouse at 2M4F in the 1:25. The drop in distance may make sense judging by her last run, but a right handed track again? However, Fairyhouse is much more galloping & testing place so might suit her more than 3 miles at Musselburgh. She will run off a mark of 80 (8 pound lower than her U.K mark) which is excellent. She'd be worth an each way as she showed some ability the last day.
 
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Taking a chance today with Fairyhouse 1.00 Thisonesformary 80/1 generally - for rookie trainer Padraig Roche who has taken over from his father Christy. His first runner yesterday ran well to finish 5th at 100/1 and showed lots of improvement from his first run. Hopefully the trainer is keen on making a quick impression.
 
swedish chef said:
Taking a chance today with Fairyhouse 1.00 Thisonesformary 80/1 generally - for rookie trainer Padraig Roche who has taken over from his father Christy. His first runner yesterday ran well to finish 5th at 100/1 and showed lots of improvement from his first run. Hopefully the trainer is keen on making a quick impression.
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Only saw this with a minute to spare but it's 237 at Betfair so surely today can't be the day?
 
Was really hoping one of you guys would catch the 3rd and 4th in the Fighting Fifth....beaten a long way that day but today finished 1st and 2nd at Kelso going off at huge odds they were the outsiders of the field.

To top it off the winner reversed places with the newcastle 2nd to the tune of 17 lengths...ye canae beat that
 
Tanlic said:
Was really hoping one of you guys would catch the 3rd and 4th in the Fighting Fifth....beaten a long way that day but today finished 1st and 2nd at Kelso going off at huge odds they were the outsiders of the field.

To top it off the winner reversed places with the newcastle 2nd to the tune of 17 lengths...ye canae beat that
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I spotted it Tanlic but took early odds just in case and they drifted - I could of won so much more if I had been patient. Took 28.0 the winner on the machine and 120.0 the f/c either way.

14-Jan-18
13:48:14 13:40 Kelso
2 - 3 / 3 - 2 - Reverse FC
Betfair Bet ID 1:113642463969 | Placed: 14-Jan-18 12:23:23 Back 120.00 2.52 --
299.88
Won
14-Jan-18
13:46:44 13:40 Kelso
Katgary - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:113642648899 | Placed: 14-Jan-18 12:24:34 Back 24.00 2.00 --
-2.00
Lost
14-Jan-18
13:46:44 13:40 Kelso
Mirsaale - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:113642648900 | Placed: 14-Jan-18 12:24:34 Back 28.00 2.00 --
54.00
Won
 
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