The Long Shot Thread

Well done Danny - one of those a year is just the ticket!

A long shot from me for tomorrow

Lingfield 2.55 - Free Talkin 20/1

Not much to say other than this filly is getting the hang of things. Draw ok, Mark looks within reach and it doesn't look the strongest of nurseries.

Hopefully nick a place at least.
 
Pissed that I missed Anibale Fly out today. A classic JP Martin plot up. I'll have to console myself with far too much weissbier and lots of fresh snow tomorrow!
 
Bonjers said:
Pissed that I missed Anibale Fly out today. A classic JP Martin plot up. I'll have to console myself with far too much weissbier and lots of fresh snow tomorrow!
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A horse I have put up myself before but unsure if it was this thread however I did spot it just before the off.
27-Dec-17
15:07:32 15:00 Leopardstown
Anibale Fly - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:11228****** | Placed: 27-Dec-17 14:58:40 Back 22.00 5.00 --
105.00
Won
 
Paul Leech, owner of Bay Of Freedom, deserves a nod as well for identifying Anibale Fly in his blog as the "first one I was afraid of when the entries came out".
 
I've had a bash at Bapaume today (33/1) in the 3-mile hurdle, for no other reason than I don't think there is a stand-out candidate (or at least there isn't one which doesn't have any question-marks), and I find it interesting that he's thrown-in here at a much longer trip than he's encountered before, on his first run for several months. He also gets a handy bit of weight from everyone but the two Mares.
 
I'm also having an ew poke at Alpha Des Obeaux (50/1), in the hope that cheek-pieces and a tongue-tie help him see-out his race better than usual. His form against Total Recall was obviously boosted, and whilst he is hardly a solid proposition, he is worth chancing at the price.
 
I'm gonna chance two in Southwell tomorrow both having their third runs for respectable yards and with good pilots up. Thundercloud runs on the 12.15 and can be had for 50-1. Argon runs in the next at 12.45 and is 33-1. I'm hoping the cheek pieces perks them up.
 
Leopardstown 12.50 Gemmattymoll 25/1 Ladbrokes / Sportingbet - looked to be travelling well l/t/o when brought down by the fall of his better fancied stablemate. May of had a hand in the finish but probably too far out to tell? I've done it on the machine for 4 places.

4 to be placed

Matched bets Order by matched date
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Gemmattymoll 3.7 £5.00 £13.50

Win Only Market

Matched betsOrder by matched date
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Gemmattymoll 29 £0.38 £10.64
Ref: 11239127*** Matched: 10:50 29-Dec-17
Gemmattymoll 32 £1.81 £56.11
Ref: 112391263*** Matched: 10:49 29-Dec-17
Gemmattymoll 32 £2.79 £86.49
Ref: 112391263*** Matched: 10:49 29-Dec-17
Gemmattymoll 34 £0.02 £0.66
 
Mussleburgh 2:30 Wednesday.

I happend to look at this race as I thought I'd a tracker running but it turns out he wasn't declared.
This is probably the wildest, possibly certifiable, left-field selection I've suggested in a decade of posting on horsey forums.

The horse is called DE DANU'S BACH. Her recent form figures are uninspiring, but I feel something better is coming. She won a point-to-point at the distance of 3 miles when she was stepped up in trip, on better ground in 2015.

She's changed trainers three or four times since, but steps up to three miles tomorrow on better going once again, so with the eight runners I'm planning to back her to cause an upset and/or out-run the odds to grab a place. There's no odds available yet. I'm expecting 20/1 or thereabouts as an opening show.
 
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Weather warning up in Scotland tomorrow, all the above could be rendered pointless yet!
 
The meetings on, there are no non runners yet, so still the 8 runners. The ground is Good-Soft (soft in places), so while its not exactly good ground, its still a lot better going than what De Danu's Bach has been running on prior to today.

I'm liking the look of 20/1 + each way. :)

I'll be looking like an immense tit or some kind of legend after this. :)
 
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A fair fifth, De Danu's Bach might actually be one to take out the race given she jumped left throughout! She can win something somewhere this season. I don't think I'm wrong to stick her in tracker after today. I see she's entered in a two mile beginners chase in Ireland on Sunday. This is now a longer term project.
 
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Marble said:
A fair fifth, De Danu's Bach might actually be one to take out the race given she jumped left throughout! She can win something somewhere this season. I don't think I'm wrong to stick her in tracker after today. I see she's entered in a two mile beginners chase in Ireland on Sunday. This is now a longer term project.
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Jumped miles left and lost substantial ground at every hurdle and at one point looked like it could still get involved. If this is dropped a couple lbs and goes left handed over similar distance and ground, could be one at a big price.

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That's my reading of it as well, Double. She has to go left handed after today, surely.
 
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Beaten 25L in the end but she emptied 2F out probably due to jumping-left and in hindsight must have needed the run as well. Somewhere between 2.6 - 3 miles looks her right distance now (over hurdles) anyways. She's just turned 8 years old, so plenty of time for her to get it together.
 
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Certainly worth keeping an eye on [although she did drift quite dramatically in the betting before the off]. Hate the way that I was so jubilant that poor Solar Impulse just missed out on a win as I'd thought about backing him and then decided against it. Also annoyed that I hadn't spotted Kim Baileys very good strike rate with bumper horses this season.
 
Just sifting through the runners for the Welsh National and I'm wondering whether its worth a shot in the dark with On the Roadat 33/1. Evan Williams should know enough about staying chasers to know what is required here. Throws in this novice who hasn't really done much wrong 5 chase starts 3 wins and 2, 2nd's has form on soft and heavy ground he's prepped him over hurdles and applies a tongue tie for the first time. The quality of his form thus far is hard to assess in the context of this race but he's an interesting candidate I feel at the price. Races off 10 stone dead taking Mitch's claim which should be a huge advantage in the conditions.


Apologies I think his price has changed to 25/1 whilst I was copying that over.
 
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Shocking stuff going on at Southwell with the fav Ghaseedah 7/4 F

Took ahuge stoll in the place market..4 places from 1.25 to 1.5 then finished stone last with the jockey taking the scenic route

They really want to start investigating these huge drifts when the horses then run like pigs...........having a gamble and landing a touch is one thing stopping them and laying them I'd have their licences in a flash
 
19.45 potter lady jane 33-1 Off for over a year but yard in good form.

20.00 starlite sienna 33-1 Champion jockey takes the reins.

The double pays 1155. :)
 
I mentioned these on the Chepstow! thread earlier in the week. Nothing further to add today.

Welsh National: Buckhorn Timothy 25/1 (40s taken midweek) & Silsol 33/1.

BT's two runs this season over hurdles suggest he’s a fair bit better than last season and those runs will have preserved his mark while getting him fit.

I've had to back Silsol purely on my ratings too. He was sent back hurdling after a few novice chases two seasons back. He actually only ran badly once and, as a 158 hurdler, he really should have had the potential to be a 170 chaser, in which case his mark of 147, less Frost’s allowance in this ground, makes him interesting at a big price.
 
I've tried another one of these cheeky e/w doubles but this time with the protection of NRNB.

Again it takes a bit of a leap of faith and neither selection would be top of my list as likely winners of their respective races but in terms of Value and trying to sneak the place money they might stand a chance.

Gold Cup Coneygree 40/1 NRNB

Well he looks pretty much finished in truth after pulling up on his last 2 starts. If you believe the Bradstocks whether its breathing ops,back problems or overreaches they believe they have genuine excuses for the horse. I'm not sure how much I believe but he obviously has problems. What happens between now and then ? Well perhaps he'll takes in the Denman Chase at Newbury Or Maybe the Cotswolds. He'd either run well and it would be considered a step in the right direction towards the Gold Cup or he runs awfully gets pulled up and more than likely retired in which case we get refunded. The other option maybe that he goes straight there and you pays your money you take your chance. It was only last Spring that he'd run Djackadam and Gold cup winner Sizing John very close at Punchestown after being Awol for most of the season and it could be said if he hadn't messed up the second last he'd have probably gone closer or maybe even beat them so its not like he can't go fairly well fresh. Yes his last 2 runs looked like it was game over but tht said is it any worse than the last runs of Sizing John, Our Duke , Whisper or Yorkhill ? Should it for some reason take more forgiving ?

I personally take the view that he is probably going to struggle to make a come back but if he shows that in a prep then as said its a refund if he runs o.k or shows any signs of the green shoots of recovery then he certainly won't be a 40/1 shot against a whole host of horses with questions still to answer.

Champion Hurdle Ch'Tibello 33/1 NRNB

I have to admit that I did try to get this bet at 22's in the without BD market but they wouldn't accept a double I have allowed myself a single at that that price (which still counts as a selection for the long shot thread).

Outside of BD who looks fairly solid to my mind we have a similar situation to the KG.

Faugheen some doubts about turning up
Melon probably in
Yorkhill entered for everything barring Miss World
MTOY yup
Defi yup
Min probably not
Apples jade probably not
Wicklow Brave and Mick jazz maybe but not exactly **** your pants scary
The new one- stayers?


Ch'tebello is next up. Without going too much into it two of the main rivals there (Melon and My tent) he met at Cheltenham fto this season he actually had travelled into the race as well as anything was actually taking quite a pull most the way around. As they turned for home he looked to be in with a winning chance travelling as well as anything, half way up the straight he got hampered and I think this cost him valuable lengths and momentum. Although the others pulled away over the last hurdle he did start to fight back right at the finish. Considering also that he'd been missing since February all things considered I think he's a fair price to reverse with the front few especially if getting a stronger pace to go at. There might be other dangers to emerge through the Handicap route or something else that pops up to ruin the party but against the current likely contenders I think he has more than a punchers chance of framing. Just a shame really that I couldn't play the double without BD as he does look fairly solid as odds on pokes go.


£10e/w double the standard stake for these.
 
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I took 25/1 Coneygree [for the GC] on the morning of the Hennessy in case he ran well that day. I'm not keen on him now but your bigger odds with the NRNB concession looks fair enough.

I also have a note in my ante-post log saying "???? a small a/p bet – can’t recall" (where the q-marks relate to the date). I reckon it was sometime between Mackeson day and Hennessy day but seeing Ch'tibello in your post makes me think it might be it as I backed him for the Cheltenham race on the day and thought he ran as promisingly as you do. I just can't be arsed trawling through all my accounts to find it!

Good luck with them and, of course, with the double.
 
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